NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Tyler Allgeier RB

ARI vs DET · Sun Oct 11 · 4:25 PM ET

9.5 Rec Yds O -114U -114

Hit rate · Last 20 20%4/20 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 8.8
Graph avg: 6.5
Graph median: 4.5-6–35
Over the close: 47%8/17

2026 per game

Carries8.0▼-0.4

Rush Yds28.0▼-2.2

Rush TD0.2▼-0.2

Targets2.5▲+1.6

Rec2.5▲+1.7

Rec Yds8.8▲+3.1

Snaps35.8▲+16.5

Snap %53.5%▲+23.3

2025

4

Sep 14
0

Sep 21
0

Sep 28
6

Oct 13
0

Oct 19
10

Oct 26
0

Nov 02
0

Nov 09
6

Nov 16
5

Nov 23
35

Nov 30
33

Dec 07
0

Dec 11
-6

Dec 21
0

Dec 29
3

Jan 04
2026

9

Sep 13
9

Sep 20
10

Sep 27
7

Oct 04
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 9.5

Home 28% 5/18 · avg 7.8
Away 15% 3/20 · avg 3.9
vs DET No games

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 4.5 50% 10/20
O 9.5 Today 20% 4/20
O 14.5 10% 2/20
O 19.5 10% 2/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs DET

What DET allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds102.8#11
Yds/Carry4.8#4
Rush TD1.1#5
Targets4.7#25
Rec Yds21.8#31

RBs vs DET · 2026

Each main RB who faced DET this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-3.8

Avg diff %+20%

Beat their average25% (1/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Chuba Hubbard	7	25.7	-73%
Sep 27	Breece Hall	23	39.5	-42%
Sep 17	James Cook	4	6.7	-40%
Sep 13	Travis Etienne	32	9.5	+237%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

ARI offense

ARI offense: Share of ARI pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%8.0 yds	2%15.2 yds	8%7.4 yds
Short	28%6.4 yds	20%5.0 yds	36%5.6 yds

Share of ARI pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

DET defense

DET defense: Throws DET faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%7.4 yds#28	5%16.9 yds#10	8%19.9 yds#1
Short	26%4.9 yds#28	16%7.9 yds#10	38%5.3 yds#19

Throws DET faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	0%	0%
Short	50%2.9 yds	5%12.0 yds	45%7.8 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of ARI targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Trey McBride TE	4	11.5	46	32.5%
2	Michael Wilson WR	4	11.0	44	29.2%
3	Kendrick Bourne WR	3	4.7	14	13.1%
4	Jeremiyah Love RB	4	3.2	13	8.8%
5	Marvin Harrison Jr. WR	4	3.2	13	8.3%
6	Tyler Allgeier RB	4	2.5	10	6.7%
7	Elijah Higgins TE	3	1.7	5	3.9%
8	Hunter Long TE	4	0.5	2	1.2%
9	Jalen Brooks WR	3	0.3	1	0.7%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 9.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	@ NYG	7	Under	8.5	36 (55%)
2026-09-27	3	@ SF	10	Over	7.5	31 (36%)
2026-09-20	2	vs SEA	9	Under	7.5	32 (64%)
2026-09-13	1	@ LAC	9	Under	2.5	44 (59%)
2026-01-04	18	vs NO	3	Under	4.5	23 (37%)
2025-12-29	17	vs LA	0	Under	0.5	19 (36%)
2025-12-21	16	@ ARI	-6	Under	1.5	31 (40%)
2025-12-11	15	@ TB	0	Under	0.5	12 (17%)
2025-12-07	14	vs SEA	33	Over	6.5	25 (39%)
2025-11-30	13	@ NYJ	35	Over	1.5	17 (25%)
2025-11-23	12	@ NO	5	Under	2.5	22 (39%)
2025-11-16	11	vs CAR	6	Under	—	14 (21%)
2025-11-09	10	@ IND	0	Under	—	23 (37%)
2025-11-02	9	@ NE	0	Under	0.5	17 (30%)
2025-10-26	8	vs MIA	10	Over	0.5	20 (40%)
2025-10-19	7	@ SF	0	Under	0.5	15 (23%)
2025-10-13	6	vs BUF	6	Under	0.5	22 (31%)
2025-09-28	4	vs WAS	0	Under	0.5	21 (32%)
2025-09-21	3	@ CAR	0	Under	0.5	6 (9%)
2025-09-14	2	@ MIN	4	Under	—	22 (33%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 9.5Underdog 11.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: FanDuel, updated 12m ago.