NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Ollie Gordon II RB

MIA vs CIN · Sun Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET

9.5 Rec Yds O -111U -113

Hit rate · All 10%2/20 Odds imply 49.8% Over

Season avg: 4.7
Graph avg: 2.3
Graph median: 0.0-1–20
Over the close: 33%1/3

2026 per game

Carries9.7▲+5.5

Rush Yds49.3▲+37.6

Rush TD0.7▲+0.5

Targets1.7▲+1.1

Rec1.7▲+1.3

Rec Yds4.7▲+2.8

Snaps31.3▲+18.3

Snap %53.0%▲+30.6

2025

-1

Sep 07
5

Sep 14
0

Sep 18
0

Sep 29
0

Oct 05
1

Oct 12
2

Oct 19
20

Oct 26
3

Oct 30
0

Nov 09
0

Nov 16
0

Nov 30
0

Dec 07
0

Dec 15
0

Dec 21
0

Dec 28
2

Jan 04
2026

0

Sep 20
14

Sep 27
0

Oct 04
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 9.5

Home 10% 1/10 · avg 2.3
Away 10% 1/10 · avg 2.3
vs CIN 0% 0/1 · avg 0.0

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 4.5 15% 3/20
O 9.5 Today 10% 2/20
O 14.5 5% 1/20
O 19.5 5% 1/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs CIN

What CIN allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds90.2#21
Yds/Carry5.1#2
Rush TD0.6#20
Targets5.3#17
Rec Yds38.3#7

RBs vs CIN · 2026

Each main RB who faced CIN this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+2.6

Avg diff %+2%

Beat their average50% (2/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Bhayshul Tuten	18	12.0	+50%
Sep 27	Jaylen Warren	49	31.3	+56%
Sep 20	David Montgomery	14	17.7	-21%
Sep 13	Kenny Gainwell	3	12.8	-76%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

MIA offense

MIA offense: Share of MIA pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%8.0 yds	7%12.7 yds	8%11.9 yds
Short	32%6.7 yds	14%7.6 yds	30%4.9 yds

Share of MIA pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

CIN defense

CIN defense: Throws CIN faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%8.6 yds#23	3%10.0 yds#29	9%3.2 yds#32
Short	28%8.4 yds#1	21%8.3 yds#8	31%7.7 yds#1

Throws CIN faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	0%	0%
Short	64%2.6 yds	7%0.0 yds	29%5.8 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of MIA targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Malik Washington WR	4	7.0	28	27.3%
2	Caleb Douglas WR	2	5.0	10	19.5%
3	De'Von Achane RB	3	4.0	12	15.8%
4	Kevin Coleman Jr. WR	3	3.3	10	14.1%
5	Greg Dulcich TE	3	4.0	12	13.5%
6	Chris Bell WR	4	3.2	13	12.4%
7	Ollie Gordon II RB	3	1.7	5	6.8%
8	DJ Herman RB	2	1.5	3	6.5%
9	Jalen Tolbert WR	1	1.0	1	5.9%
10	Will Kacmarek TE	4	1.0	4	5.0%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 9.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	@ MIN	0	Under	7.5	22 (56%)
2026-09-27	3	vs KC	14	Over	0.5	61 (84%)
2026-09-20	2	@ SF	0	Under	—	11 (19%)
2026-01-04	18	@ NE	2	Under	—	20 (36%)
2025-12-28	17	vs TB	0	Under	—	8 (15%)
2025-12-21	16	vs CIN	0	Under	—	3 (5%)
2025-12-15	15	@ PIT	0	Under	—	6 (12%)
2025-12-07	14	@ NYJ	0	Under	—	16 (25%)
2025-11-30	13	vs NO	0	Under	—	16 (27%)
2025-11-16	11	vs WAS	0	Under	—	22 (39%)
2025-11-09	10	vs BUF	0	Under	—	3 (6%)
2025-10-30	9	vs BAL	3	Under	—	13 (20%)
2025-10-26	8	@ ATL	20	Over	—	21 (30%)
2025-10-19	7	@ CLE	2	Under	—	18 (31%)
2025-10-12	6	vs LAC	1	Under	—	13 (22%)
2025-10-05	5	@ CAR	0	Under	—	14 (25%)
2025-09-29	4	vs NYJ	0	Under	—	15 (26%)
2025-09-18	3	@ BUF	0	Under	—	15 (25%)
2025-09-14	2	vs NE	5	Under	—	7 (12%)
2025-09-07	1	@ IND	-1	Under	2.5	12 (25%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 9.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 15m ago.