NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Noah Fant TE

NO vs MIN · Sun Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET

13.5 Rec Yds O -109U -115

Hit rate · Last 20 75%15/20 Odds imply 49.4% Over

Season avg: 22.0
Graph avg: 26.2
Graph median: 27.50–63
Over the close: 54%6/11

2026 per game

Targets4.0▲+0.8

Rec2.7▲+0.1

Rec Yds22.0▼-0.2

Rec TD1.0▲+0.8

Snaps36.3▲+9.7

Snap %47.3%▲+7.3

2024

15

Dec 15
50

Dec 22
43

Dec 26
63

Jan 05
2025

26

Sep 07
28

Sep 14
26

Sep 21
27

Oct 12
44

Oct 16
41

Oct 26
28

Nov 02
36

Nov 16
9

Nov 23
3

Nov 27
15

Dec 07
0

Dec 28
5

Jan 04
2026

33

Sep 13
0

Sep 20
33

Sep 27
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 13.5

Home 73% 11/15 · avg 28.9
Away 87% 13/15 · avg 28.1
vs MIN 100% 2/2 · avg 38.0

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 3.5 85% 17/20
O 8.5 80% 16/20
O 13.5 Today 75% 15/20
O 18.5 65% 13/20
O 23.5 65% 13/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · TEs vs MIN

What MIN allowed to TEs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds30.4#31
Receptions2.2#32
Targets4.9#31
Yds/Target6.2#23
Rec TD0.0#32

TEs vs MIN · 2026

Each main TE who faced MIN this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+12.3

Avg diff %+287%

Beat their average75% (3/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Will Kacmarek	15	1.3	+1025%
Sep 27	Cade Otton	56	31.5	+78%
Sep 20	Colston Loveland	3	29.3	-90%
Sep 13	Tucker Kraft	65	27.7	+135%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

NO offense

NO offense: Share of NO pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%7.6 yds	3%18.2 yds	8%13.3 yds
Short	30%5.7 yds	14%9.0 yds	36%5.9 yds

Share of NO pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

MIN defense

MIN defense: Throws MIN faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	5%10.5 yds#13	6%16.7 yds#12	7%10.3 yds#19
Short	34%4.8 yds#31	17%5.4 yds#28	32%4.7 yds#27

Throws MIN faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	3%23.0 yds	0%
Short	32%3.1 yds	16%5.4 yds	48%8.1 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of NO targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Chris Olave WR	4	12.0	48	28.6%
2	Devaughn Vele WR	4	7.8	31	18.3%
3	Juwan Johnson TE	4	6.8	27	15.7%
4	Alvin Kamara RB	3	4.7	14	12.0%
5	Travis Etienne RB	3	4.3	13	9.5%
6	Noah Fant TE	3	4.0	12	8.5%
7	Bryce Lance WR	4	3.2	13	7.2%
8	Kendre Miller RB	3	2.0	6	4.6%
9	Kevin Austin Jr. WR	1	1.0	1	3.1%
10	CJ Donaldson RB	4	1.0	4	2.0%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 13.5	Close	Snaps
2026-09-27	3	vs LV	33	Over	11.5	42 (57%)
2026-09-20	2	@ BAL	0	Under	14.5	30 (44%)
2026-09-13	1	@ DET	33	Over	10.5	37 (41%)
2026-01-04	18	vs CLE	5	Under	—	15 (22%)
2025-12-28	17	vs ARI	0	Under	7.5	17 (22%)
2025-12-07	14	@ BUF	15	Over	10.5	25 (42%)
2025-11-27	13	@ BAL	3	Under	10.5	35 (42%)
2025-11-23	12	vs NE	9	Under	23.5	18 (28%)
2025-11-16	11	@ PIT	36	Over	30.5	32 (48%)
2025-11-02	9	vs CHI	28	Over	10.5	31 (46%)
2025-10-26	8	vs NYJ	41	Over	23.5	28 (47%)
2025-10-16	7	vs PIT	44	Over	44.5	52 (68%)
2025-10-12	6	@ GB	27	Over	—	32 (49%)
2025-09-21	3	@ MIN	26	Over	—	18 (32%)
2025-09-14	2	vs JAX	28	Over	—	17 (25%)
2025-09-07	1	@ CLE	26	Over	—	26 (50%)
2025-01-05	18	@ LA	63	Over	—	35 (64%)
2024-12-26	17	@ CHI	43	Over	—	29 (56%)
2024-12-22	16	vs MIN	50	Over	—	46 (72%)
2024-12-15	15	vs GB	15	Over	—	35 (59%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 13.5Underdog 14.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 11m ago.