NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

James Cook III RB

BUF vs LAR · Mon Oct 12 · 8:15 PM ET

11.5 Rec Yds O -114U -110

Hit rate · Last 20 45%9/20 Odds imply 50.4% Over

Season avg: 6.0
Graph avg: 13.7
Graph median: 9.50–66
Over the close: 42%8/19

2026 per game

Carries17.5▼-0.8

Rush Yds105.2▲+11.4

Rush TD0.8▲+0.1

Targets2.5▲+0.1

Rec1.5▼-0.4

Rec Yds6.0▼-10.8

Snaps44.0▲+5.7

Snap %68.0%▲+10.3

2025

18

Sep 28
0

Oct 05
0

Oct 13
0

Oct 26
11

Nov 02
24

Nov 09
66

Nov 16
13

Nov 20
33

Nov 30
31

Dec 07
4

Dec 14
17

Dec 21
3

Dec 28
0

Jan 04
5

Jan 11
24

Jan 17
2026

12

Sep 13
4

Sep 17
0

Sep 27
8

Oct 04
?

Oct 13

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 11.5

Home 46% 10/22 · avg 17.0
Away 55% 11/20 · avg 14.6
vs LAR 0% 0/1 · avg 9.0

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 1.5 75% 15/20
O 6.5 55% 11/20
O 11.5 Today 45% 9/20
O 16.5 35% 7/20
O 21.5 25% 5/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs LAR

What LAR allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds97.4#15
Yds/Carry4.4#17
Rush TD0.6#17
Targets6.7#5
Rec Yds41.8#2

RBs vs LAR · 2026

Each main RB who faced LAR this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-5.9

Avg diff %-33%

Beat their average25% (1/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Will Shipley	0	8.0	-100%
Sep 27	RJ Harvey	41	45.5	-10%
Sep 21	Cam Skattebo	19	16.0	+19%
Sep 10	Christian McCaffrey	20	34.0	-41%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

BUF offense

BUF offense: Share of BUF pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%6.4 yds	7%18.7 yds	7%16.8 yds
Short	29%7.2 yds	13%7.3 yds	37%5.8 yds

Share of BUF pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

LAR defense

LAR defense: Throws LAR faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%10.0 yds#16	4%16.3 yds#14	8%6.9 yds#30
Short	31%6.0 yds#11	20%4.6 yds#31	30%5.8 yds#12

Throws LAR faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	4%0.0 yds	0%	0%
Short	37%4.4 yds	4%0.0 yds	56%4.3 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of BUF targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Khalil Shakir WR	4	5.8	23	20.3%
2	DJ Moore WR	4	5.0	20	18.4%
3	Dalton Kincaid TE	4	4.8	19	17.1%
4	Keon Coleman WR	4	4.0	16	14.0%
5	Ty Johnson RB	2	3.0	6	11.0%
6	Josh Palmer WR	3	3.0	9	10.4%
7	James Cook RB	4	2.5	10	8.9%
8	Dawson Knox TE	4	1.5	6	5.3%
9	Jackson Hawes TE	1	1.0	1	3.8%
10	Ray Davis RB	3	0.3	1	1.1%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 11.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	vs NE	8	Under	7.5	35 (59%)
2026-09-27	3	vs LAC	0	Under	11.5	44 (67%)
2026-09-17	2	vs DET	4	Under	18.5	55 (74%)
2026-09-13	1	@ HOU	12	Over	19.5	42 (72%)
2026-01-17	20 (P)	@ DEN	24	Over	14.5	50 (64%)
2026-01-11	19 (P)	@ JAX	5	Under	5.5	38 (60%)
2026-01-04	18	vs NYJ	0	Under	—	2 (3%)
2025-12-28	17	vs PHI	3	Under	12.5	39 (51%)
2025-12-21	16	@ CLE	17	Over	17.5	28 (56%)
2025-12-14	15	@ NE	4	Under	17.5	47 (67%)
2025-12-07	14	vs CIN	31	Over	13.5	48 (75%)
2025-11-30	13	@ PIT	33	Over	20.5	45 (61%)
2025-11-20	12	@ HOU	13	Over	10.5	36 (55%)
2025-11-16	11	vs TB	66	Over	11.5	37 (66%)
2025-11-09	10	@ MIA	24	Over	24.5	34 (50%)
2025-11-02	9	vs KC	11	Under	0.5	50 (76%)
2025-10-26	8	@ CAR	0	Under	10.5	28 (44%)
2025-10-13	6	@ ATL	0	Under	10.5	30 (53%)
2025-10-05	5	vs NE	0	Under	10.5	49 (72%)
2025-09-28	4	vs NO	18	Over	15.5	43 (73%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 9.5Underdog 12.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 12m ago.