NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Drew Sample TE

CIN vs MIA · Sun Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET

5.5 Rec Yds

Hit rate · Last 20 65%13/20 Odds imply —

Season avg: 9.5
Graph avg: 9.2
Graph median: 8.0-2–31
Over the close: 33%2/6

2026 per game

Targets2.5▲+0.8

Rec2.0▲+0.8

Rec Yds9.5▲+0.7

Rec TD0.0▼-0.1

Snaps35.5▼-2.2

Snap %58.5%▲+2.2

2024

8

Dec 01
13

Dec 09
8

Dec 15
12

Dec 22
3

Dec 28
14

Jan 04
2025

0

Sep 07
7

Sep 14
20

Sep 21
-1

Oct 05
-2

Oct 12
0

Oct 16
0

Nov 23
14

Nov 27
12

Dec 14
31

Dec 21
8

Dec 28
17

Jan 04
2026

19

Sep 13
0

Sep 27
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 5.5

Home 67% 8/12 · avg 8.2
Away 62% 8/13 · avg 10.4
vs MIA 100% 1/1 · avg 31.0

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 0.5 70% 14/20
O 5.5 Today 65% 13/20
O 10.5 45% 9/20
O 15.5 20% 4/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · TEs vs MIA

What MIA allowed to TEs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds70.7#4
Receptions7.0#3
Targets8.5#4
Yds/Target8.3#6
Rec TD0.3#24

TEs vs MIA · 2026

Each main TE who faced MIA this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+25.5

Avg diff %+95%

Beat their average50% (2/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	T.J. Hockenson	119	25.3	+370%
Sep 27	Travis Kelce	59	62.3	-5%
Sep 20	George Kittle	80	54.7	+46%
Sep 13	Michael Mayer	32	45.7	-30%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

CIN offense

CIN offense: Share of CIN pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	4%13.4 yds	3%14.9 yds	7%11.7 yds
Short	32%5.5 yds	20%8.2 yds	34%6.2 yds

Share of CIN pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

MIA defense

MIA defense: Throws MIA faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%12.1 yds#11	4%14.5 yds#19	8%11.2 yds#14
Short	29%6.5 yds#6	15%8.6 yds#5	37%6.3 yds#6

Throws MIA faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	0%	0%
Short	47%2.8 yds	21%8.8 yds	32%6.3 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of CIN targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Tee Higgins WR	4	9.8	39	24.8%
2	Ja'Marr Chase WR	4	7.0	28	19.7%
3	Chase Brown RB	4	6.0	24	15.0%
4	Mitchell Tinsley WR	1	7.0	7	13.2%
5	Mike Gesicki TE	3	5.0	15	12.7%
6	Erick All TE	1	3.0	3	9.7%
7	Dohnte Meyers WR	4	4.0	16	9.2%
8	Drew Sample TE	2	2.5	5	7.1%
9	Andrei Iosivas WR	2	2.0	4	6.0%
10	Samaje Perine RB	4	2.0	8	5.5%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 5.5	Close	Snaps
2026-09-27	3	@ PIT	0	Under	6.5	29 (51%)
2026-09-13	1	vs TB	19	Over	14.5	42 (66%)
2026-01-04	18	vs CLE	17	Over	—	49 (72%)
2025-12-28	17	vs ARI	8	Over	8.5	50 (65%)
2025-12-21	16	@ MIA	31	Over	—	40 (66%)
2025-12-14	15	vs BAL	12	Over	—	41 (54%)
2025-11-27	13	@ BAL	14	Over	0.5	49 (59%)
2025-11-23	12	vs NE	0	Under	—	34 (52%)
2025-10-16	7	vs PIT	0	Under	7.5	39 (51%)
2025-10-12	6	@ GB	-2	Under	—	22 (34%)
2025-10-05	5	vs DET	-1	Under	—	27 (44%)
2025-09-21	3	@ MIN	20	Over	—	38 (68%)
2025-09-14	2	vs JAX	7	Over	—	28 (41%)
2025-09-07	1	@ CLE	0	Under	10.5	36 (69%)
2025-01-04	18	@ PIT	14	Over	—	41 (55%)
2024-12-28	17	vs DEN	3	Under	—	55 (61%)
2024-12-22	16	vs CLE	12	Over	—	49 (88%)
2024-12-15	15	@ TEN	8	Over	—	47 (68%)
2024-12-09	14	@ DAL	13	Over	—	49 (69%)
2024-12-01	13	vs PIT	8	Over	—	39 (63%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 5.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: PrizePicks, updated 11m ago.