NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Jahmyr Gibbs RB

DET vs ARI · Sun Oct 11 · 4:25 PM ET

37.5 Rec Yds O -114U -114

Hit rate · All 33%13/39 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 46.8
Graph avg: 35.6
Graph median: 31.00–107
Over the close: 32%6/19

2026 per game

Carries20.0▲+5.7

Rush Yds88.2▲+16.3

Rush TD1.2▲+0.5

Targets7.0▲+1.5

Rec5.5▲+1.0

Rec Yds46.8▲+10.5

Snaps54.5▲+11.1

Snap %78.2%▲+11.2

2024

34

Sep 08
22

Sep 15
20

Sep 22
0

Sep 30
28

Oct 13
44

Oct 20
6

Oct 27
11

Nov 03
37

Nov 10
54

Nov 17
9

Nov 24
17

Nov 28
30

Dec 05
83

Dec 15
45

Dec 22
46

Dec 30
31

Jan 05
70

Jan 18
2025

31

Sep 07
10

Sep 14
32

Sep 22
6

Sep 28
33

Oct 05
0

Oct 12
82

Oct 20
3

Nov 02
30

Nov 09
107

Nov 16
45

Nov 23
18

Nov 27
77

Dec 04
20

Dec 14
66

Dec 21
23

Dec 25
33

Jan 04
2026

30

Sep 13
61

Sep 17
65

Sep 27
31

Oct 04
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 37.5

Home 40% 8/20 · avg 37.5
Away 26% 5/19 · avg 33.7
vs ARI 0% 0/1 · avg 20.0

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 27.5 64% 25/39
O 32.5 44% 17/39
O 37.5 Today 33% 13/39
O 42.5 33% 13/39
O 47.5 23% 9/39

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs ARI

What ARI allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds123.2#2
Yds/Carry4.6#9
Rush TD0.9#9
Targets5.3#15
Rec Yds34.9#11

RBs vs ARI · 2026

Each main RB who faced ARI this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-17.8

Avg diff %-87%

Beat their average0% (0/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Cam Skattebo	8	19.7	-59%
Sep 27	Kyle Juszczyk	0	27.5	-100%
Sep 20	George Holani	2	16.7	-88%
Sep 13	Alec Ingold	0	17.5	-100%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

DET offense

DET offense: Share of DET pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	5%14.8 yds	6%15.0 yds	5%14.2 yds
Short	29%5.2 yds	26%8.9 yds	29%5.6 yds

Share of DET pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

ARI defense

ARI defense: Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%14.7 yds#4	4%13.3 yds#21	10%12.1 yds#11
Short	31%5.7 yds#19	18%8.6 yds#6	31%7.4 yds#2

Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	0%	0%
Short	34%4.7 yds	39%7.9 yds	27%5.7 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of DET targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Amon-Ra St. Brown WR	4	11.5	46	29.4%
2	Sam LaPorta TE	4	8.0	32	19.3%
3	Jahmyr Gibbs RB	4	7.0	28	18.4%
4	Jameson Williams WR	4	6.2	25	15.5%
5	Isaac TeSlaa WR	4	4.2	17	10.3%
6	Brock Wright TE	4	1.2	5	3.2%
7	Jackson Meeks WR	1	1.0	1	3.2%
8	Sione Vaki RB	4	1.2	5	3.1%

Game log · 39 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 37.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	@ CAR	31	Under	35.5	62 (87%)
2026-09-27	3	vs NYJ	65	Over	34.5	45 (69%)
2026-09-17	2	@ BUF	61	Over	31.5	54 (83%)
2026-09-13	1	vs NO	30	Under	30.5	57 (74%)
2026-01-04	18	@ CHI	33	Under	33.5	52 (71%)
2025-12-25	17	@ MIN	23	Under	33.5	44 (69%)
2025-12-21	16	vs PIT	66	Over	28.5	64 (86%)
2025-12-14	15	@ LA	20	Under	16.5	52 (81%)
2025-12-04	14	vs DAL	77	Over	80.5	43 (69%)
2025-11-27	13	vs GB	18	Under	—	44 (70%)
2025-11-23	12	vs NYG	45	Over	30.5	50 (74%)
2025-11-16	11	@ PHI	107	Over	107.5	43 (73%)
2025-11-09	10	@ WAS	30	Under	30.5	35 (50%)
2025-11-02	9	vs MIN	3	Under	3.5	42 (66%)
2025-10-20	7	vs TB	82	Over	85.5	38 (56%)
2025-10-12	6	@ KC	0	Under	10.5	37 (69%)
2025-10-05	5	@ CIN	33	Under	36.5	32 (52%)
2025-09-28	4	vs CLE	6	Under	10.5	37 (62%)
2025-09-22	3	@ BAL	32	Under	30.5	47 (69%)
2025-09-14	2	vs CHI	10	Under	27.5	33 (56%)
2025-09-07	1	@ GB	31	Under	—	44 (66%)
2025-01-18	20 (P)	vs WAS	70	Over	—	52 (75%)
2025-01-05	18	vs MIN	31	Under	—	45 (66%)
2024-12-30	17	@ SF	46	Over	—	37 (52%)
2024-12-22	16	@ CHI	45	Over	—	45 (69%)
2024-12-15	15	vs BUF	83	Over	—	59 (75%)
2024-12-05	14	vs GB	30	Under	—	45 (56%)
2024-11-28	13	vs CHI	17	Under	—	32 (46%)
2024-11-24	12	@ IND	9	Under	—	48 (67%)
2024-11-17	11	vs JAX	54	Over	—	33 (42%)
2024-11-10	10	@ HOU	37	Under	—	39 (60%)
2024-11-03	9	@ GB	11	Under	—	22 (39%)
2024-10-27	8	vs TEN	6	Under	—	19 (40%)
2024-10-20	7	@ MIN	44	Over	—	33 (58%)
2024-10-13	6	@ DAL	28	Under	—	37 (54%)
2024-09-30	4	vs SEA	0	Under	—	30 (57%)
2024-09-22	3	@ ARI	20	Under	—	31 (46%)
2024-09-15	2	vs TB	22	Under	—	53 (62%)
2024-09-08	1	vs LA	34	Under	—	31 (51%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 36.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: FanDuel, updated 14m ago.