NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Sam LaPorta TE

DET vs ARI · Sun Oct 11 · 4:25 PM ET

51.5 Rec Yds O -109U -115

Hit rate · All 47%14/30 Odds imply 49.4% Over

Season avg: 57.0
Graph avg: 49.8
Graph median: 49.56–111
Over the close: 33%4/12

2026 per game

Targets8.0▲+2.6

Rec5.5▲+1.1

Rec Yds57.0▲+2.7

Rec TD0.5▲+0.2

Snaps60.5▲+3.1

Snap %87.5%▼-3.2

2024

45

Sep 08
13

Sep 15
36

Sep 22
53

Sep 30
52

Oct 13
25

Oct 20
48

Oct 27
28

Nov 03
66

Nov 10
19

Nov 24
6

Nov 28
54

Dec 05
111

Dec 15
43

Dec 22
64

Dec 30
63

Jan 05
51

Jan 18
2025

79

Sep 07
26

Sep 14
33

Sep 22
39

Sep 28
92

Oct 05
55

Oct 12
15

Oct 20
97

Nov 02
53

Nov 09
2026

48

Sep 13
52

Sep 17
44

Sep 27
84

Oct 04
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 51.5

Home 33% 5/15 · avg 47.5
Away 60% 9/15 · avg 52.1
vs ARI 0% 0/1 · avg 36.0

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 41.5 67% 20/30
O 46.5 57% 17/30
O 51.5 Today 47% 14/30
O 56.5 27% 8/30
O 61.5 27% 8/30

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · TEs vs ARI

What ARI allowed to TEs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds70.8#3
Receptions6.5#4
Targets8.4#5
Yds/Target8.4#5
Rec TD0.9#2

TEs vs ARI · 2026

Each main TE who faced ARI this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+10.8

Avg diff %+29%

Beat their average75% (3/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Isaiah Likely	66	41.3	+60%
Sep 27	George Kittle	82	54.0	+52%
Sep 20	AJ Barner	8	31.3	-74%
Sep 13	Oronde Gadsden II	32	18.0	+78%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

DET offense

DET offense: Share of DET pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	5%14.8 yds	6%15.0 yds	5%14.2 yds
Short	29%5.2 yds	26%8.9 yds	29%5.6 yds

Share of DET pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

ARI defense

ARI defense: Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%14.7 yds#4	4%13.3 yds#21	10%12.1 yds#11
Short	31%5.7 yds#19	18%8.6 yds#6	31%7.4 yds#2

Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	3%33.5 yds	5%9.3 yds
Short	30%6.7 yds	27%10.2 yds	36%8.0 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of DET targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Amon-Ra St. Brown WR	4	11.5	46	29.4%
2	Sam LaPorta TE	4	8.0	32	19.3%
3	Jahmyr Gibbs RB	4	7.0	28	18.4%
4	Jameson Williams WR	4	6.2	25	15.5%
5	Isaac TeSlaa WR	4	4.2	17	10.3%
6	Brock Wright TE	4	1.2	5	3.2%
7	Jackson Meeks WR	1	1.0	1	3.2%
8	Sione Vaki RB	4	1.2	5	3.1%

Game log · 30 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 51.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	@ CAR	84	Over	47.5	56 (79%)
2026-09-27	3	vs NYJ	44	Under	46.5	60 (92%)
2026-09-17	2	@ BUF	52	Over	46.5	64 (98%)
2026-09-13	1	vs NO	48	Under	44.5	62 (81%)
2025-11-09	10	@ WAS	53	Over	45.5	53 (76%)
2025-11-02	9	vs MIN	97	Over	105.5	64 (100%)
2025-10-20	7	vs TB	15	Under	15.5	66 (97%)
2025-10-12	6	@ KC	55	Over	55.5	52 (96%)
2025-10-05	5	@ CIN	92	Over	95.5	58 (94%)
2025-09-28	4	vs CLE	39	Under	40.5	56 (93%)
2025-09-22	3	@ BAL	33	Under	35.5	57 (84%)
2025-09-14	2	vs CHI	26	Under	44.5	50 (85%)
2025-09-07	1	@ GB	79	Over	—	61 (91%)
2025-01-18	20 (P)	vs WAS	51	Under	—	67 (97%)
2025-01-05	18	vs MIN	63	Over	—	68 (100%)
2024-12-30	17	@ SF	64	Over	—	66 (93%)
2024-12-22	16	@ CHI	43	Under	—	60 (92%)
2024-12-15	15	vs BUF	111	Over	—	77 (97%)
2024-12-05	14	vs GB	54	Over	—	72 (90%)
2024-11-28	13	vs CHI	6	Under	—	66 (94%)
2024-11-24	12	@ IND	19	Under	—	67 (93%)
2024-11-10	10	@ HOU	66	Over	—	39 (60%)
2024-11-03	9	@ GB	28	Under	—	48 (84%)
2024-10-27	8	vs TEN	48	Under	—	38 (79%)
2024-10-20	7	@ MIN	25	Under	—	54 (95%)
2024-10-13	6	@ DAL	52	Over	—	42 (62%)
2024-09-30	4	vs SEA	53	Over	—	47 (89%)
2024-09-22	3	@ ARI	36	Under	—	43 (63%)
2024-09-15	2	vs TB	13	Under	—	75 (88%)
2024-09-08	1	vs LA	45	Under	—	48 (79%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 51.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 10m ago.