NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Keon Coleman WR

BUF vs LAR · Mon Oct 12 · 8:15 PM ET

39.5 Rec Yds O -105U -125

Hit rate · Last 20 30%6/20 Odds imply 48.0% Over

Season avg: 54.2
Graph avg: 34.2
Graph median: 24.51–116
Over the close: 35%6/17

2026 per game

Targets4.0▼-0.5

Rec3.5▲+0.6

Rec Yds54.2▲+22.1

Rec TD0.2▼-0.1

Snaps40.5▼-2.3

Snap %62.5%▼-0.4

2024

5

Jan 19
12

Jan 26
2025

112

Sep 07
26

Sep 14
20

Sep 18
45

Sep 28
23

Oct 05
11

Oct 13
30

Oct 26
17

Nov 02
46

Nov 09
9

Nov 30
16

Dec 07
49

Jan 04
36

Jan 11
10

Jan 17
2026

1

Sep 13
63

Sep 17
37

Sep 27
116

Oct 04
?

Oct 13

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 39.5

Home 39% 7/18 · avg 42.9
Away 31% 5/16 · avg 29.5
vs LAR No games

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 29.5 45% 9/20
O 34.5 40% 8/20
O 39.5 Today 30% 6/20
O 44.5 30% 6/20
O 49.5 15% 3/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs LAR

What LAR allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds134.4#19
Receptions10.0#23
Targets17.2#17
Yds/Target7.8#18
Rec TD1.3#4

WRs vs LAR · 2026

Each main WR who faced LAR this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-16.8

Avg diff %-13%

Beat their average38% (3/8)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Dontayvion Wicks	18	59.7	-70%
Oct 04	Makai Lemon	27	12.7	+113%
Sep 27	Jaylen Waddle	10	58.3	-83%
Sep 27	Pat Bryant	44	29.7	+48%
Sep 21	Malik Nabers	1	69.0	-99%
Sep 21	Malachi Fields	30	32.0	-6%
Sep 10	Mike Evans	49	54.7	-10%
Sep 10	Deebo Samuel Sr.	48	45.7	+5%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

BUF offense

BUF offense: Share of BUF pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%6.4 yds	7%18.7 yds	7%16.8 yds
Short	29%7.2 yds	13%7.3 yds	37%5.8 yds

Share of BUF pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

LAR defense

LAR defense: Throws LAR faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%10.0 yds#16	4%16.3 yds#14	8%6.9 yds#30
Short	31%6.0 yds#11	20%4.6 yds#31	30%5.8 yds#12

Throws LAR faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	24%12.9 yds	8%11.3 yds	8%24.3 yds
Short	32%7.6 yds	8%5.7 yds	21%7.8 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of BUF targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Khalil Shakir WR	4	5.8	23	20.3%
2	DJ Moore WR	4	5.0	20	18.4%
3	Dalton Kincaid TE	4	4.8	19	17.1%
4	Keon Coleman WR	4	4.0	16	14.0%
5	Ty Johnson RB	2	3.0	6	11.0%
6	Josh Palmer WR	3	3.0	9	10.4%
7	James Cook RB	4	2.5	10	8.9%
8	Dawson Knox TE	4	1.5	6	5.3%
9	Jackson Hawes TE	1	1.0	1	3.8%
10	Ray Davis RB	3	0.3	1	1.1%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 39.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	vs NE	116	Over	12.5	46 (78%)
2026-09-27	3	vs LAC	37	Under	14.5	32 (48%)
2026-09-17	2	vs DET	63	Over	14.5	55 (74%)
2026-09-13	1	@ HOU	1	Under	11.5	29 (50%)
2026-01-17	20 (P)	@ DEN	10	Under	20.5	35 (45%)
2026-01-11	19 (P)	@ JAX	36	Under	36.5	27 (43%)
2026-01-04	18	vs NYJ	49	Over	—	61 (81%)
2025-12-07	14	vs CIN	16	Under	20.5	18 (28%)
2025-11-30	13	@ PIT	9	Under	15.5	33 (45%)
2025-11-09	10	@ MIA	46	Over	36.5	42 (62%)
2025-11-02	9	vs KC	17	Under	17.5	45 (68%)
2025-10-26	8	@ CAR	30	Under	41.5	46 (73%)
2025-10-13	6	@ ATL	11	Under	20.5	49 (86%)
2025-10-05	5	vs NE	23	Under	10.5	42 (62%)
2025-09-28	4	vs NO	45	Over	45.5	43 (73%)
2025-09-18	3	vs MIA	20	Under	20.5	45 (75%)
2025-09-14	2	@ NYJ	26	Under	30.5	38 (51%)
2025-09-07	1	vs BAL	112	Over	45.5	75 (88%)
2025-01-26	21 (P)	@ KC	12	Under	—	39 (53%)
2025-01-19	20 (P)	vs BAL	5	Under	—	40 (66%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 39.5Underdog 39.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: ESPN BET, updated 7m ago.