NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Xavier Hutchinson WR

HOU vs TEN · Sun Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET

14.5 Rec Yds O -110U -114

Hit rate · All 60%23/38 Odds imply 49.6% Over

Season avg: 41.5
Graph avg: 22.7
Graph median: 18.50–84
Over the close: 52%11/21

2026 per game

Targets6.5▲+2.4

Rec3.0▲+0.7

Rec Yds41.5▲+14.1

Rec TD0.0▼-0.2

Snaps38.8▼-2.4

Snap %55.5%▼-4.2

2024

3

Sep 08
0

Sep 15
0

Sep 22
31

Oct 06
0

Oct 13
11

Oct 20
19

Oct 27
0

Oct 31
6

Nov 10
0

Nov 24
13

Dec 15
8

Dec 21
21

Dec 25
5

Jan 05
34

Jan 11
52

Jan 18
2025

30

Sep 07
29

Sep 15
16

Sep 21
17

Sep 28
18

Oct 05
13

Oct 20
69

Oct 26
30

Nov 02
42

Nov 16
0

Nov 20
39

Nov 30
0

Dec 07
16

Dec 14
4

Dec 21
21

Dec 27
84

Jan 04
21

Jan 12
44

Jan 18
2026

32

Sep 13
37

Sep 20
51

Sep 27
46

Oct 04
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 14.5

Home 68% 13/19 · avg 25.7
Away 53% 10/19 · avg 19.7
vs TEN 50% 2/4 · avg 16.0

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 4.5 76% 29/38
O 9.5 68% 26/38
O 14.5 Today 60% 23/38
O 19.5 47% 18/38
O 24.5 40% 15/38

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs TEN

What TEN allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds161.7#8
Receptions11.5#11
Targets16.3#26
Yds/Target9.9#1
Rec TD1.0#10

WRs vs TEN · 2026

Each main WR who faced TEN this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+3.1

Avg diff %+3%

Beat their average62% (5/8)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Zay Flowers	118	117.0	+1%
Oct 04	Rashod Bateman	46	41.7	+10%
Sep 27	Malik Nabers	26	60.7	-57%
Sep 27	Malachi Fields	19	35.7	-47%
Sep 20	DeVonta Smith	117	59.0	+98%
Sep 20	Dontayvion Wicks	74	41.0	+80%
Sep 13	Garrett Wilson	79	63.7	+24%
Sep 13	Isaiah Williams	7	42.7	-84%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

HOU offense

HOU offense: Share of HOU pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%9.3 yds	3%23.0 yds	8%8.5 yds
Short	24%4.9 yds	22%9.0 yds	36%5.7 yds

Share of HOU pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

TEN defense

TEN defense: Throws TEN faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%11.7 yds#12	4%24.2 yds#3	8%14.8 yds#5
Short	33%6.5 yds#7	16%9.4 yds#3	32%5.8 yds#14

Throws TEN faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	3%0.0 yds	3%0.0 yds	15%7.6 yds
Short	24%2.1 yds	30%10.5 yds	24%4.9 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of HOU targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Nico Collins WR	2	9.0	18	28.9%
2	Xavier Hutchinson WR	4	6.5	26	19.4%
3	Dalton Schultz TE	4	6.8	27	17.3%
4	Jared Wayne WR	3	4.0	12	10.9%
5	Kayshon Boutte WR	4	3.2	13	9.7%
6	Jaylin Noel WR	4	3.0	12	8.7%
7	Foster Moreau TE	4	2.2	9	7.3%
8	Woody Marks RB	4	2.2	9	5.6%
9	David Montgomery RB	4	1.8	7	5.0%
10	Lewis Bond WR	1	1.0	1	4.0%

Game log · 38 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 14.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	vs DAL	46	Over	26.5	17 (31%)
2026-09-27	3	@ IND	51	Over	38.5	29 (54%)
2026-09-20	2	vs CIN	37	Over	32.5	65 (81%)
2026-09-13	1	vs BUF	32	Over	17.5	44 (56%)
2026-01-18	20 (P)	@ NE	44	Over	30.5	63 (84%)
2026-01-12	19 (P)	@ PIT	21	Over	21.5	45 (66%)
2026-01-04	18	vs IND	84	Over	44.5	54 (79%)
2025-12-27	17	@ LAC	21	Over	21.5	31 (48%)
2025-12-21	16	vs LV	4	Under	10.5	32 (49%)
2025-12-14	15	vs ARI	16	Over	20.5	20 (30%)
2025-12-07	14	@ KC	0	Under	0.5	28 (40%)
2025-11-30	13	@ IND	39	Over	7.5	42 (55%)
2025-11-20	12	vs BUF	0	Under	0.5	21 (36%)
2025-11-16	11	@ TEN	42	Over	36.5	37 (53%)
2025-11-02	9	vs DEN	30	Over	15.5	46 (63%)
2025-10-26	8	vs SF	69	Over	70.5	57 (71%)
2025-10-20	7	@ SEA	13	Under	—	59 (78%)
2025-10-05	5	@ BAL	18	Over	14.5	47 (67%)
2025-09-28	4	vs TEN	17	Over	20.5	48 (68%)
2025-09-21	3	@ JAX	16	Over	15.5	39 (62%)
2025-09-15	2	vs TB	29	Over	30.5	28 (57%)
2025-09-07	1	@ LA	30	Over	30.5	43 (68%)
2025-01-18	20 (P)	@ KC	52	Over	—	42 (62%)
2025-01-11	19 (P)	vs LAC	34	Over	—	28 (38%)
2025-01-05	18	@ TEN	5	Under	—	48 (80%)
2024-12-25	17	vs BAL	21	Over	—	39 (70%)
2024-12-21	16	@ KC	8	Under	—	34 (58%)
2024-12-15	15	vs MIA	13	Under	—	8 (16%)
2024-11-24	12	vs TEN	0	Under	—	8 (14%)
2024-11-10	10	vs DET	6	Under	—	57 (84%)
2024-10-31	9	@ NYJ	0	Under	—	59 (75%)
2024-10-27	8	vs IND	19	Over	—	44 (62%)
2024-10-20	7	@ GB	11	Under	—	41 (64%)
2024-10-13	6	@ NE	0	Under	—	33 (50%)
2024-10-06	5	vs BUF	31	Over	—	48 (71%)
2024-09-22	3	@ MIN	0	Under	—	12 (18%)
2024-09-15	2	vs CHI	0	Under	—	9 (15%)
2024-09-08	1	@ IND	3	Under	—	12 (15%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 14.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 15m ago.