NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Jerry Jeudy WR

CLE vs NYJ · Sun Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET

14.5 Rec Yds O -109U -115

Hit rate · All 92%34/37 Odds imply 49.4% Over

Season avg: 20.7
Graph avg: 51.2
Graph median: 39.00–235
Over the close: 37%7/19

2026 per game

Targets2.7▼-3.6

Rec1.7▼-1.3

Rec Yds20.7▼-14.7

Rec TD0.0▼-0.1

Snaps30.0▼-24.2

Snap %53.3%▼-31.2

2024

25

Sep 08
73

Sep 15
27

Sep 22
72

Sep 29
16

Oct 06
35

Oct 13
18

Oct 20
79

Oct 27
73

Nov 03
142

Nov 17
85

Nov 21
235

Dec 02
64

Dec 08
108

Dec 15
20

Dec 22
94

Dec 29
63

Jan 04
2025

66

Sep 07
51

Sep 14
17

Sep 21
48

Sep 28
15

Oct 05
43

Oct 12
17

Oct 19
0

Oct 26
78

Nov 09
21

Nov 16
39

Nov 23
26

Nov 30
76

Dec 07
22

Dec 14
12

Dec 21
54

Dec 28
17

Jan 04
2026

26

Sep 13
0

Sep 20
36

Oct 01
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 14.5

Home 94% 17/18 · avg 47.2
Away 90% 17/19 · avg 54.9
vs NYJ 100% 1/1 · avg 78.0

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 4.5 95% 35/37
O 9.5 95% 35/37
O 14.5 Today 92% 34/37
O 19.5 76% 28/37
O 24.5 68% 25/37

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs NYJ

What NYJ allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds128.1#23
Receptions10.9#17
Targets16.5#22
Yds/Target7.8#19
Rec TD1.1#8

WRs vs NYJ · 2026

Each main WR who faced NYJ this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-34.0

Avg diff %-46%

Beat their average12% (1/8)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Kalif Raymond	6	71.3	-92%
Oct 04	Luther Burden III	63	52.0	+21%
Sep 27	Amon-Ra St. Brown	19	94.7	-80%
Sep 27	Jameson Williams	49	60.0	-18%
Sep 20	Christian Watson	41	96.7	-58%
Sep 20	Matthew Golden	58	72.0	-19%
Sep 13	Carnell Tate	38	76.7	-50%
Sep 13	Elic Ayomanor	11	34.0	-68%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

CLE offense

CLE offense: Share of CLE pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	4%13.1 yds	6%14.1 yds	4%8.9 yds
Short	34%5.7 yds	19%7.7 yds	32%4.9 yds

Share of CLE pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

NYJ defense

NYJ defense: Throws NYJ faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%9.7 yds#20	4%14.6 yds#18	7%12.5 yds#9
Short	33%6.3 yds#8	20%7.1 yds#14	29%6.6 yds#4

Throws NYJ faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	5%0.0 yds	12%15.4 yds	12%7.8 yds
Short	37%6.5 yds	15%6.3 yds	20%7.1 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of CLE targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	KC Concepcion WR	4	7.0	28	24.2%
2	Harold Fannin Jr. TE	4	5.8	23	19.7%
3	Denzel Boston WR	4	5.5	22	19.0%
4	Quinshon Judkins RB	4	4.0	16	13.4%
5	Jerry Jeudy WR	3	2.7	8	10.2%
6	Raheim Sanders RB	4	2.8	11	9.9%
7	Blake Whiteheart TE	3	1.0	3	3.7%
8	Michael Burton FB	1	1.0	1	3.3%
9	Isaiah Bond WR	2	1.0	2	3.2%
10	Jaleel McLaughlin RB	2	0.5	1	1.7%

Game log · 37 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 14.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-01	4	vs PIT	36	Over	14.5	24 (38%)
2026-09-20	2	@ TB	0	Under	29.5	34 (59%)
2026-09-13	1	@ JAX	26	Over	29.5	32 (63%)
2026-01-04	18	@ CIN	17	Over	6.5	46 (88%)
2025-12-28	17	vs PIT	54	Over	29.5	49 (94%)
2025-12-21	16	vs BUF	12	Under	12.5	48 (73%)
2025-12-14	15	@ CHI	22	Over	37.5	55 (96%)
2025-12-07	14	vs TEN	76	Over	76.5	61 (88%)
2025-11-30	13	vs SF	26	Over	15.5	53 (84%)
2025-11-23	12	@ LV	39	Over	40.5	33 (65%)
2025-11-16	11	vs BAL	21	Over	11.5	45 (82%)
2025-11-09	10	@ NYJ	78	Over	39.5	70 (96%)
2025-10-26	8	@ NE	0	Under	45.5	45 (83%)
2025-10-19	7	vs MIA	17	Over	20.5	39 (68%)
2025-10-12	6	@ PIT	43	Over	43.5	73 (89%)
2025-10-05	5	vs MIN	15	Over	15.5	63 (90%)
2025-09-28	4	@ DET	48	Over	55.5	55 (82%)
2025-09-21	3	vs GB	17	Over	—	55 (83%)
2025-09-14	2	@ BAL	51	Over	51.5	64 (88%)
2025-09-07	1	vs CIN	66	Over	25.5	67 (88%)
2025-01-04	18	@ BAL	63	Over	—	56 (95%)
2024-12-29	17	vs MIA	94	Over	—	77 (97%)
2024-12-22	16	@ CIN	20	Over	—	60 (91%)
2024-12-15	15	vs KC	108	Over	—	59 (95%)
2024-12-08	14	@ PIT	64	Over	—	66 (92%)
2024-12-02	13	@ DEN	235	Over	—	78 (91%)
2024-11-21	12	vs PIT	85	Over	—	48 (83%)
2024-11-17	11	@ NO	142	Over	—	62 (85%)
2024-11-03	9	vs LAC	73	Over	—	79 (100%)
2024-10-27	8	vs BAL	79	Over	—	67 (97%)
2024-10-20	7	vs CIN	18	Over	—	80 (95%)
2024-10-13	6	@ PHI	35	Over	—	52 (91%)
2024-10-06	5	@ WAS	16	Over	—	47 (76%)
2024-09-29	4	@ LV	72	Over	—	51 (86%)
2024-09-22	3	vs NYG	27	Over	—	60 (90%)
2024-09-15	2	@ JAX	73	Over	—	57 (79%)
2024-09-08	1	vs DAL	25	Over	—	62 (82%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 14.5Underdog 14.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 14m ago.