NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

George Kittle TE

SF vs SEA · Sun Oct 11 · 4:25 PM ET

54.5 Rec Yds O -114U -114

Hit rate · All 64%20/31 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 61.0
Graph avg: 64.0
Graph median: 67.00–151
Over the close: 38%6/16

2026 per game

Targets5.5▼-0.4

Rec4.0▼-0.8

Rec Yds61.0▲+8.2

Rec TD1.0▲+0.4

Snaps40.2▼-7.0

Snap %67.5%▼-8.8

2024

40

Sep 09
76

Sep 15
45

Sep 29
64

Oct 06
58

Oct 10
92

Oct 20
128

Oct 27
57

Nov 10
82

Nov 24
7

Dec 01
151

Dec 08
61

Dec 12
106

Dec 22
112

Dec 30
27

Jan 05
2025

25

Sep 07
0

Oct 19
43

Oct 26
32

Nov 02
84

Nov 09
67

Nov 16
78

Nov 24
67

Nov 30
88

Dec 14
115

Dec 22
29

Jan 03
6

Jan 11
2026

12

Sep 10
80

Sep 20
82

Sep 27
70

Oct 04
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 54.5

Home 75% 12/16 · avg 75.2
Away 53% 8/15 · avg 52.0
vs SEA 33% 1/3 · avg 37.3

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 44.5 68% 21/31
O 49.5 64% 20/31
O 54.5 Today 64% 20/31
O 59.5 58% 18/31
O 64.5 52% 16/31

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · TEs vs SEA

What SEA allowed to TEs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds41.9#23
Receptions4.8#21
Targets7.1#20
Yds/Target5.9#27
Rec TD0.3#23

TEs vs SEA · 2026

Each main TE who faced SEA this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-4.8

Avg diff %-2%

Beat their average25% (1/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Oronde Gadsden II	36	16.7	+116%
Sep 27	Colson Yankoff	2	4.7	-57%
Sep 20	Trey McBride	41	67.0	-39%
Sep 09	Hunter Henry	26	35.7	-27%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

SF offense

SF offense: Share of SF pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%8.8 yds	5%30.1 yds	4%12.2 yds
Short	38%7.1 yds	19%6.8 yds	27%5.7 yds

Share of SF pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

SEA defense

SEA defense: Throws SEA faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%8.5 yds#24	3%30.0 yds#1	9%10.2 yds#23
Short	31%5.1 yds#27	18%4.9 yds#30	32%4.6 yds#30

Throws SEA faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%14.5 yds	5%30.7 yds	5%13.3 yds
Short	40%9.4 yds	19%8.6 yds	25%6.1 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of SF targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Mike Evans WR	4	6.0	24	21.4%
2	George Kittle TE	4	5.5	22	20.3%
3	Christian McCaffrey RB	4	5.5	22	19.8%
4	Deebo Samuel Sr. WR	4	4.2	17	15.1%
5	Demarcus Robinson WR	2	3.0	6	11.6%
6	Kyle Juszczyk FB	3	2.0	6	8.0%
7	Jordan Watkins WR	1	2.0	2	7.7%
8	Brandin Cooks WR	1	1.0	1	3.4%
9	Jacob Cowing WR	4	0.8	3	2.8%
10	Luke Farrell TE	4	0.8	3	2.4%

Game log · 31 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 54.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	vs DEN	70	Over	64.5	60 (91%)
2026-09-27	3	vs ARI	82	Over	47.5	46 (85%)
2026-09-20	2	vs MIA	80	Over	39.5	25 (48%)
2026-09-10	1	@ LA	12	Under	33.5	30 (46%)
2026-01-11	19 (P)	@ PHI	6	Under	39.5	13 (22%)
2026-01-03	18	vs SEA	29	Under	61.5	40 (95%)
2025-12-22	16	@ IND	115	Over	66.5	41 (62%)
2025-12-14	15	vs TEN	88	Over	88.5	71 (96%)
2025-11-30	13	@ CLE	67	Over	67.5	58 (87%)
2025-11-24	12	vs CAR	78	Over	78.5	64 (91%)
2025-11-16	11	@ ARI	67	Over	53.5	48 (87%)
2025-11-09	10	vs LA	84	Over	80.5	57 (90%)
2025-11-02	9	@ NYG	32	Under	50.5	57 (86%)
2025-10-26	8	@ HOU	43	Under	55.5	43 (90%)
2025-10-19	7	vs ATL	0	Under	10.5	54 (81%)
2025-09-07	1	@ SEA	25	Under	63.5	21 (28%)
2025-01-05	18	@ ARI	27	Under	—	22 (29%)
2024-12-30	17	vs DET	112	Over	—	60 (94%)
2024-12-22	16	@ MIA	106	Over	—	63 (98%)
2024-12-12	15	vs LA	61	Over	—	52 (96%)
2024-12-08	14	vs CHI	151	Over	—	52 (85%)
2024-12-01	13	@ BUF	7	Under	—	48 (100%)
2024-11-24	12	@ GB	82	Over	—	41 (84%)
2024-11-10	10	@ TB	57	Over	—	57 (89%)
2024-10-27	8	vs DAL	128	Over	—	64 (94%)
2024-10-20	7	vs KC	92	Over	—	58 (92%)
2024-10-10	6	@ SEA	58	Over	—	57 (88%)
2024-10-06	5	vs ARI	64	Over	—	58 (91%)
2024-09-29	4	vs NE	45	Under	—	59 (94%)
2024-09-15	2	@ MIN	76	Over	—	51 (73%)
2024-09-09	1	vs NYJ	40	Under	—	66 (92%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 52.5Underdog 54.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: FanDuel, updated 14m ago.