NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Chris Olave WR

NO vs MIN · Sun Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET

80.5 Rec Yds O -113U -111

Hit rate · All 50%14/28 Odds imply 50.2% Over

Season avg: 122.8
Graph avg: 73.4
Graph median: 75.55–182
Over the close: 68%13/19

2026 per game

Targets12.0▲+2.2

Rec8.8▲+2.5

Rec Yds122.8▲+50.1

Rec TD0.2▼-0.3

Snaps65.0▲+9.6

Snap %85.0%▲+0.7

2024

11

Sep 08
81

Sep 15
86

Sep 22
87

Sep 29
10

Oct 07
5

Oct 13
107

Oct 27
13

Nov 03
2025

54

Sep 07
54

Sep 14
57

Sep 21
20

Sep 28
59

Oct 05
98

Oct 12
98

Oct 19
63

Oct 26
57

Nov 02
104

Nov 09
70

Nov 23
47

Nov 30
30

Dec 07
85

Dec 14
148

Dec 21
119

Dec 28
2026

182

Sep 13
86

Sep 20
107

Sep 27
116

Oct 05
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 80.5

Home 46% 6/13 · avg 73.5
Away 53% 8/15 · avg 73.2
vs MIN No games

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 60.5 57% 16/28
O 70.5 50% 14/28
O 80.5 Today 50% 14/28
O 90.5 32% 9/28
O 100.5 25% 7/28

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs MIN

What MIN allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds118.2#30
Receptions9.5#30
Targets16.4#23
Yds/Target7.2#27
Rec TD0.4#30

WRs vs MIN · 2026

Each main WR who faced MIN this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+7.1

Avg diff %+13%

Beat their average50% (4/8)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Malik Washington	67	50.7	+32%
Oct 04	Ryan Miller	0	46.0	-100%
Sep 27	Chris Godwin Jr.	25	38.5	-35%
Sep 27	Emeka Egbuka	62	32.5	+91%
Sep 20	Rome Odunze	43	63.3	-32%
Sep 20	Luther Burden III	32	62.3	-49%
Sep 13	Christian Watson	147	61.3	+140%
Sep 13	Matthew Golden	95	59.7	+59%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

NO offense

NO offense: Share of NO pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%7.6 yds	3%18.2 yds	8%13.3 yds
Short	30%5.7 yds	14%9.0 yds	36%5.9 yds

Share of NO pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

MIN defense

MIN defense: Throws MIN faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	5%10.5 yds#13	6%16.7 yds#12	7%10.3 yds#19
Short	34%4.8 yds#31	17%5.4 yds#28	32%4.7 yds#27

Throws MIN faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	17%10.5 yds	5%23.6 yds	15%9.1 yds
Short	28%6.7 yds	11%12.7 yds	25%6.5 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of NO targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Chris Olave WR	4	12.0	48	28.6%
2	Devaughn Vele WR	4	7.8	31	18.3%
3	Juwan Johnson TE	4	6.8	27	15.7%
4	Alvin Kamara RB	3	4.7	14	12.0%
5	Travis Etienne RB	3	4.3	13	9.5%
6	Noah Fant TE	3	4.0	12	8.5%
7	Bryce Lance WR	4	3.2	13	7.2%
8	Kendre Miller RB	3	2.0	6	4.6%
9	Kevin Austin Jr. WR	1	1.0	1	3.1%
10	CJ Donaldson RB	4	1.0	4	2.0%

Game log · 28 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 80.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-05	4	vs ATL	116	Over	86.5	64 (86%)
2026-09-27	3	vs LV	107	Over	76.5	62 (84%)
2026-09-20	2	@ BAL	86	Over	65.5	57 (84%)
2026-09-13	1	@ DET	182	Over	76.5	77 (86%)
2025-12-28	17	@ TEN	119	Over	119.5	49 (91%)
2025-12-21	16	vs NYJ	148	Over	99.5	61 (78%)
2025-12-14	15	vs CAR	85	Over	61.5	58 (84%)
2025-12-07	14	@ TB	30	Under	30.5	54 (93%)
2025-11-30	13	@ MIA	47	Under	63.5	63 (88%)
2025-11-23	12	vs ATL	70	Under	68.5	64 (80%)
2025-11-09	10	@ CAR	104	Over	90.5	37 (54%)
2025-11-02	9	@ LA	57	Under	57.5	36 (88%)
2025-10-26	8	vs TB	63	Under	62.5	67 (93%)
2025-10-19	7	@ CHI	98	Over	98.5	47 (84%)
2025-10-12	6	vs NE	98	Over	54.5	49 (88%)
2025-10-05	5	vs NYG	59	Under	55.5	48 (73%)
2025-09-28	4	@ BUF	20	Under	20.5	57 (85%)
2025-09-21	3	@ SEA	57	Under	—	62 (85%)
2025-09-14	2	vs SF	54	Under	40.5	71 (100%)
2025-09-07	1	vs ARI	54	Under	50.5	64 (85%)
2024-11-03	9	@ CAR	13	Under	—	8 (10%)
2024-10-27	8	@ LAC	107	Over	—	58 (79%)
2024-10-13	6	vs TB	5	Under	—	2 (3%)
2024-10-07	5	@ KC	10	Under	—	50 (94%)
2024-09-29	4	@ ATL	87	Over	—	58 (78%)
2024-09-22	3	vs PHI	86	Over	—	45 (80%)
2024-09-15	2	@ DAL	81	Over	—	42 (71%)
2024-09-08	1	vs CAR	11	Under	—	52 (79%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 79.5PrizePicks 80.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 11m ago.