NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

David Montgomery RB

HOU vs TEN · Sun Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET

7.5 Rec Yds O -112U -112

Hit rate · All 72%26/36 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 16.8
Graph avg: 16.7
Graph median: 15.50–40
Over the close: 44%8/18

2026 per game

Carries11.8▲+2.5

Rush Yds31.8▼-10.4

Rush TD0.5+0.0

Targets1.8+0.0

Rec1.8▲+0.3

Rec Yds16.8▲+5.5

Snaps36.5▲+12.5

Snap %55.0%▲+17.9

2024

2

Sep 08
35

Sep 15
17

Sep 22
40

Sep 30
0

Oct 13
39

Oct 20
5

Oct 27
23

Nov 03
24

Nov 10
20

Nov 17
36

Nov 24
36

Nov 28
33

Dec 05
31

Dec 15
0

Jan 18
2025

18

Sep 07
4

Sep 14
13

Sep 22
0

Sep 28
6

Oct 05
37

Oct 12
18

Oct 20
10

Nov 02
0

Nov 09
10

Nov 16
19

Nov 23
16

Nov 27
13

Dec 04
0

Dec 14
0

Dec 21
15

Dec 25
13

Jan 04
2026

19

Sep 13
14

Sep 20
15

Sep 27
19

Oct 04
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 7.5

Home 70% 14/20 · avg 16.7
Away 75% 12/16 · avg 16.6
vs TEN 0% 0/1 · avg 5.0

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 2.5 81% 29/36
O 7.5 Today 72% 26/36
O 12.5 67% 24/36
O 17.5 44% 16/36

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs TEN

What TEN allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds75.6#26
Yds/Carry3.4#32
Rush TD0.7#15
Targets4.4#29
Rec Yds32.8#14

RBs vs TEN · 2026

Each main RB who faced TEN this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-1.0

Avg diff %+52%

Beat their average25% (1/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Derrick Henry	6	12.7	-53%
Sep 27	Cam Skattebo	40	9.0	+344%
Sep 20	Will Shipley	5	6.3	-21%
Sep 13	Breece Hall	16	43.0	-63%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

HOU offense

HOU offense: Share of HOU pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%9.3 yds	3%23.0 yds	8%8.5 yds
Short	24%4.9 yds	22%9.0 yds	36%5.7 yds

Share of HOU pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

TEN defense

TEN defense: Throws TEN faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%11.7 yds#12	4%24.2 yds#3	8%14.8 yds#5
Short	33%6.5 yds#7	16%9.4 yds#3	32%5.8 yds#14

Throws TEN faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	0%	0%
Short	28%9.6 yds	39%6.0 yds	33%7.3 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of HOU targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Nico Collins WR	2	9.0	18	28.9%
2	Xavier Hutchinson WR	4	6.5	26	19.4%
3	Dalton Schultz TE	4	6.8	27	17.3%
4	Jared Wayne WR	3	4.0	12	10.9%
5	Kayshon Boutte WR	4	3.2	13	9.7%
6	Jaylin Noel WR	4	3.0	12	8.7%
7	Foster Moreau TE	4	2.2	9	7.3%
8	Woody Marks RB	4	2.2	9	5.6%
9	David Montgomery RB	4	1.8	7	5.0%
10	Lewis Bond WR	1	1.0	1	4.0%

Game log · 36 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 7.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	vs DAL	19	Over	10.5	31 (56%)
2026-09-27	3	@ IND	15	Over	9.5	34 (63%)
2026-09-20	2	vs CIN	14	Over	11.5	42 (52%)
2026-09-13	1	vs BUF	19	Over	10.5	39 (49%)
2026-01-04	18	@ CHI	13	Over	—	31 (42%)
2025-12-25	17	@ MIN	15	Over	0.5	22 (34%)
2025-12-21	16	vs PIT	0	Under	9.5	13 (18%)
2025-12-14	15	@ LA	0	Under	0.5	18 (28%)
2025-12-04	14	vs DAL	13	Over	10.5	19 (31%)
2025-11-27	13	vs GB	16	Over	—	24 (38%)
2025-11-23	12	vs NYG	19	Over	20.5	23 (34%)
2025-11-16	11	@ PHI	10	Over	10.5	23 (39%)
2025-11-09	10	@ WAS	0	Under	0.5	38 (54%)
2025-11-02	9	vs MIN	10	Over	15.5	24 (38%)
2025-10-20	7	vs TB	18	Over	20.5	30 (44%)
2025-10-12	6	@ KC	37	Over	25.5	17 (31%)
2025-10-05	5	@ CIN	6	Under	0.5	33 (53%)
2025-09-28	4	vs CLE	0	Under	10.5	20 (33%)
2025-09-22	3	@ BAL	13	Over	15.5	25 (37%)
2025-09-14	2	vs CHI	4	Under	12.5	23 (39%)
2025-09-07	1	@ GB	18	Over	—	25 (37%)
2025-01-18	20 (P)	vs WAS	0	Under	—	17 (25%)
2024-12-15	15	vs BUF	31	Over	—	24 (30%)
2024-12-05	14	vs GB	33	Over	—	36 (45%)
2024-11-28	13	vs CHI	36	Over	—	38 (54%)
2024-11-24	12	@ IND	36	Over	—	21 (29%)
2024-11-17	11	vs JAX	20	Over	—	31 (39%)
2024-11-10	10	@ HOU	24	Over	—	26 (40%)
2024-11-03	9	@ GB	23	Over	—	32 (56%)
2024-10-27	8	vs TEN	5	Under	—	23 (48%)
2024-10-20	7	@ MIN	39	Over	—	22 (39%)
2024-10-13	6	@ DAL	0	Under	—	21 (31%)
2024-09-30	4	vs SEA	40	Over	—	21 (40%)
2024-09-22	3	@ ARI	17	Over	—	35 (51%)
2024-09-15	2	vs TB	35	Over	—	30 (35%)
2024-09-08	1	vs LA	2	Under	—	30 (49%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 7.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 8m ago.