NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

T.J. Hockenson TE

MIN vs NO · Sun Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET

36.5 Rec Yds O -114U -110

Hit rate · Last 20 45%9/20 Odds imply 50.4% Over

Season avg: 48.8
Graph avg: 34.9
Graph median: 32.52–119
Over the close: 67%12/18

2026 per game

Targets6.5▲+2.1

Rec5.5▲+2.1

Rec Yds48.8▲+19.6

Rec TD0.2+0.0

Snaps48.5▲+2.4

Snap %75.8%▼-2.2

2024

64

Jan 13
2025

15

Sep 08
12

Sep 14
49

Sep 21
39

Sep 28
38

Oct 05
43

Oct 19
26

Oct 23
11

Nov 02
8

Nov 09
39

Nov 16
19

Nov 23
59

Nov 30
12

Dec 07
66

Dec 14
2

Dec 21
2026

36

Sep 13
29

Sep 20
11

Sep 27
119

Oct 04
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 36.5

Home 54% 7/13 · avg 41.4
Away 41% 7/17 · avg 36.1
vs NO No games

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 26.5 55% 11/20
O 31.5 50% 10/20
O 36.5 Today 45% 9/20
O 41.5 30% 6/20
O 46.5 25% 5/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · TEs vs NO

What NO allowed to TEs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds58.5#12
Receptions5.8#10
Targets8.3#7
Yds/Target7.0#18
Rec TD0.3#22

TEs vs NO · 2026

Each main TE who faced NO this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-4.1

Avg diff %-11%

Beat their average25% (1/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 05	Austin Hooper	9	15.5	-42%
Sep 27	Michael Mayer	32	45.7	-30%
Sep 20	Mark Andrews	49	33.3	+47%
Sep 13	Sam LaPorta	48	60.0	-20%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

MIN offense

MIN offense: Share of MIN pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	10%14.4 yds	2%11.2 yds	8%6.9 yds
Short	26%4.6 yds	18%7.0 yds	35%5.2 yds

Share of MIN pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

NO defense

NO defense: Throws NO faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%7.7 yds#26	2%16.0 yds#15	7%12.2 yds#10
Short	33%6.3 yds#9	13%6.7 yds#17	37%4.6 yds#29

Throws NO faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%6.0 yds	4%22.5 yds	8%17.8 yds
Short	28%6.1 yds	26%7.5 yds	29%5.1 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of MIN targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Justin Jefferson WR	3	5.7	17	26.2%
2	T.J. Hockenson TE	4	6.5	26	24.5%
3	Jordan Addison WR	4	5.5	22	22.3%
4	Aaron Jones RB	4	3.8	15	13.1%
5	Josh Oliver TE	3	1.7	5	7.6%
6	Tai Felton WR	2	1.5	3	5.5%
7	Jauan Jennings WR	3	1.3	4	5.1%
8	DeeJay Dallas RB	4	0.8	3	3.2%
9	Gavin Bartholomew TE	1	1.0	1	3.0%
10	Myles Price WR	4	0.8	3	2.8%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 36.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	vs MIA	119	Over	38.5	65 (83%)
2026-09-27	3	@ TB	11	Under	29.5	50 (85%)
2026-09-20	2	@ CHI	29	Under	30.5	36 (69%)
2026-09-13	1	vs GB	36	Under	24.5	43 (66%)
2025-12-21	16	@ NYG	2	Under	26.5	46 (75%)
2025-12-14	15	@ DAL	66	Over	60.5	44 (80%)
2025-12-07	14	vs WAS	12	Under	10.5	36 (56%)
2025-11-30	13	@ SEA	59	Over	60.5	41 (79%)
2025-11-23	12	@ GB	19	Under	—	30 (68%)
2025-11-16	11	vs CHI	39	Over	7.5	44 (80%)
2025-11-09	10	vs BAL	8	Under	10.5	59 (91%)
2025-11-02	9	@ DET	11	Under	15.5	48 (77%)
2025-10-23	8	@ LAC	26	Under	20.5	40 (82%)
2025-10-19	7	vs PHI	43	Over	31.5	57 (83%)
2025-10-05	5	@ CLE	38	Over	15.5	55 (85%)
2025-09-28	4	@ PIT	39	Over	25.5	71 (93%)
2025-09-21	3	vs CIN	49	Over	28.5	41 (68%)
2025-09-14	2	vs ATL	12	Under	10.5	34 (72%)
2025-09-08	1	@ CHI	15	Under	10.5	45 (80%)
2025-01-13	19 (P)	@ LA	64	Over	—	44 (59%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 36.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 4m ago.