NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Isaiah Likely TE

NYG vs WAS · Sun Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET

41.5 Rec Yds O -114U -114

Hit rate · All 27%9/33 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 47.5
Graph avg: 33.3
Graph median: 26.00–111
Over the close: 19%3/16

2026 per game

Targets8.8▲+5.8

Rec5.5▲+3.2

Rec Yds47.5▲+21.9

Rec TD0.5▲+0.4

Snaps43.0▲+6.2

Snap %67.0%▲+9.8

2024

111

Sep 05
26

Sep 15
4

Sep 22
26

Sep 29
13

Oct 06
27

Oct 13
17

Oct 21
47

Oct 27
0

Nov 03
75

Nov 17
38

Dec 01
17

Dec 15
29

Dec 21
9

Dec 25
38

Jan 04
53

Jan 11
73

Jan 19
2025

12

Oct 05
6

Oct 12
8

Oct 26
60

Oct 30
17

Nov 09
15

Nov 16
10

Nov 23
95

Nov 27
25

Dec 07
0

Dec 21
27

Dec 27
32

Jan 04
2026

78

Sep 13
33

Sep 21
13

Sep 27
66

Oct 04
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 41.5

Home 22% 4/18 · avg 30.6
Away 33% 5/15 · avg 36.7
vs WAS 0% 0/1 · avg 27.0

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 31.5 39% 13/33
O 36.5 33% 11/33
O 41.5 Today 27% 9/33
O 46.5 27% 9/33
O 51.5 24% 8/33

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · TEs vs WAS

What WAS allowed to TEs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds65.6#7
Receptions5.2#17
Targets6.9#23
Yds/Target9.5#1
Rec TD1.1#1

TEs vs WAS · 2026

Each main TE who faced WAS this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+32.5

Avg diff %+252%

Beat their average100% (3/3)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Tyler Warren	41	29.7	+38%
Sep 27	AJ Barner	69	11.0	+527%
Sep 20	Jake Ferguson	43	14.8	+192%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

NYG offense

NYG offense: Share of NYG pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%12.4 yds	3%10.8 yds	8%9.1 yds
Short	34%6.3 yds	20%5.9 yds	26%5.5 yds

Share of NYG pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

WAS defense

WAS defense: Throws WAS faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%4.8 yds#30	4%19.6 yds#6	7%15.5 yds#4
Short	31%5.5 yds#21	16%9.6 yds#2	36%4.9 yds#25

Throws WAS faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	3%28.0 yds	0%	9%6.8 yds
Short	33%5.8 yds	29%7.5 yds	26%4.5 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of NYG targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Isaiah Likely TE	4	8.8	35	31.0%
2	Malik Nabers WR	4	6.5	26	24.1%
3	Malachi Fields WR	4	3.8	15	13.1%
4	Darnell Mooney WR	4	2.5	10	9.4%
5	Cam Skattebo RB	4	2.2	9	8.7%
6	Devin Singletary RB	2	2.5	5	8.5%
7	Theo Johnson TE	3	2.0	6	6.5%
8	Patrick Ricard RB	2	1.5	3	5.2%
9	Odell Beckham Jr. WR	1	1.0	1	4.8%
10	Braxton Berrios WR	4	0.2	1	0.9%

Game log · 33 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 41.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	vs ARI	66	Over	41.5	44 (66%)
2026-09-27	3	vs TEN	13	Under	38.5	54 (84%)
2026-09-21	2	@ LA	33	Under	45.5	40 (69%)
2026-09-13	1	vs DAL	78	Over	36.5	34 (49%)
2026-01-04	18	@ PIT	32	Under	6.5	25 (49%)
2025-12-27	17	@ GB	27	Under	27.5	53 (70%)
2025-12-21	16	vs NE	0	Under	0.5	22 (40%)
2025-12-07	14	vs PIT	25	Under	26.5	48 (60%)
2025-11-27	13	vs CIN	95	Over	95.5	31 (52%)
2025-11-23	12	vs NYJ	10	Under	22.5	36 (57%)
2025-11-16	11	@ CLE	15	Under	15.5	32 (52%)
2025-11-09	10	@ MIN	17	Under	20.5	39 (56%)
2025-10-30	9	@ MIA	60	Over	60.5	33 (59%)
2025-10-26	8	vs CHI	8	Under	18.5	36 (58%)
2025-10-12	6	vs LA	6	Under	17.5	63 (81%)
2025-10-05	5	vs HOU	12	Under	12.5	23 (53%)
2025-01-19	20 (P)	@ BUF	73	Over	—	47 (80%)
2025-01-11	19 (P)	vs PIT	53	Over	—	59 (80%)
2025-01-04	18	vs CLE	38	Under	—	43 (61%)
2024-12-25	17	@ HOU	9	Under	—	48 (76%)
2024-12-21	16	vs PIT	29	Under	—	41 (66%)
2024-12-15	15	@ NYG	17	Under	—	39 (66%)
2024-12-01	13	vs PHI	38	Under	—	36 (50%)
2024-11-17	11	@ PIT	75	Over	—	30 (49%)
2024-11-03	9	vs DEN	0	Under	—	17 (30%)
2024-10-27	8	@ CLE	47	Over	—	47 (69%)
2024-10-21	7	@ TB	17	Under	—	35 (59%)
2024-10-13	6	vs WAS	27	Under	—	46 (68%)
2024-10-06	5	@ CIN	13	Under	—	55 (71%)
2024-09-29	4	vs BUF	26	Under	—	31 (54%)
2024-09-22	3	@ DAL	4	Under	—	39 (62%)
2024-09-15	2	vs LV	26	Under	—	32 (49%)
2024-09-05	1	@ KC	111	Over	—	53 (66%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 41.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: FanDuel, updated 15m ago.