NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Michael Mayer TE

LV vs NE · Sun Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET

29.5 Rec Yds O -109U -116

Hit rate · All 29%8/28 Odds imply 49.3% Over

Season avg: 42.2
Graph avg: 23.3
Graph median: 13.50–89
Over the close: 35%6/17

2026 per game

Targets6.0▲+2.2

Rec5.0▲+2.3

Rec Yds42.2▲+17.0

Rec TD0.2▲+0.2

Snaps60.8▲+25.0

Snap %85.0%▲+23.2

2024

3

Sep 08
11

Sep 15
7

Sep 22
5

Nov 17
11

Nov 24
5

Nov 29
68

Dec 08
11

Dec 16
0

Dec 22
14

Dec 29
21

Jan 05
2025

38

Sep 07
9

Sep 15
0

Sep 21
50

Oct 12
10

Oct 19
26

Nov 02
22

Nov 06
13

Nov 17
14

Nov 23
0

Dec 14
10

Dec 21
89

Dec 28
47

Jan 04
2026

32

Sep 13
23

Sep 20
32

Sep 27
82

Oct 04
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 29.5

Home 36% 5/14 · avg 29.4
Away 21% 3/14 · avg 17.2
vs NE 100% 1/1 · avg 38.0

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 19.5 43% 12/28
O 24.5 32% 9/28
O 29.5 Today 29% 8/28
O 34.5 21% 6/28
O 39.5 18% 5/28

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · TEs vs NE

What NE allowed to TEs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds35.2#30
Receptions3.9#29
Targets5.5#29
Yds/Target6.4#22
Rec TD0.1#31

TEs vs NE · 2026

Each main TE who faced NE this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-35.2

Avg diff %-64%

Beat their average0% (0/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Dalton Kincaid	7	87.7	-92%
Sep 27	Brenton Strange	32	45.0	-29%
Sep 20	Darnell Washington	7	37.3	-81%
Sep 09	AJ Barner	13	29.7	-56%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

LV offense

LV offense: Share of LV pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%13.4 yds	3%5.3 yds	6%8.0 yds
Short	28%6.1 yds	19%6.3 yds	36%5.6 yds

Share of LV pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

NE defense

NE defense: Throws NE faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%4.0 yds#32	4%10.5 yds#28	5%9.4 yds#24
Short	31%5.3 yds#24	17%7.0 yds#16	37%4.2 yds#32

Throws NE faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	2%21.0 yds	0%	6%7.7 yds
Short	22%3.5 yds	29%10.0 yds	41%6.2 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of LV targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Brock Bowers TE	2	12.0	24	33.1%
2	Ashton Jeanty RB	4	6.0	24	17.9%
3	Michael Mayer TE	4	6.0	24	17.2%
4	Tre Tucker WR	4	5.8	23	17.0%
5	Jalen Nailor WR	3	3.7	11	12.5%
6	Jack Bech WR	2	3.0	6	10.3%
7	Cody White WR	4	2.5	10	7.2%
8	Ian Thomas TE	2	1.5	3	3.8%
9	Malik Benson WR	4	1.0	4	3.4%
10	Dareke Young WR	4	0.8	3	1.9%

Game log · 28 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 29.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	vs KC	82	Over	25.5	74 (88%)
2026-09-27	3	@ NO	32	Over	21.5	61 (87%)
2026-09-20	2	@ LAC	23	Under	44.5	53 (84%)
2026-09-13	1	vs MIA	32	Over	39.5	55 (81%)
2026-01-04	18	vs KC	47	Over	29.5	59 (95%)
2025-12-28	17	vs NYG	89	Over	35.5	55 (93%)
2025-12-21	16	@ HOU	10	Under	10.5	36 (67%)
2025-12-14	15	@ PHI	0	Under	15.5	8 (19%)
2025-11-23	12	vs CLE	14	Under	30.5	13 (16%)
2025-11-17	11	vs DAL	13	Under	13.5	46 (77%)
2025-11-06	10	@ DEN	22	Under	22.5	37 (62%)
2025-11-02	9	vs JAX	26	Under	15.5	53 (83%)
2025-10-19	7	@ KC	10	Under	15.5	33 (94%)
2025-10-12	6	vs TEN	50	Over	50.5	56 (92%)
2025-09-21	3	@ WAS	0	Under	10.5	5 (8%)
2025-09-15	2	vs LAC	9	Under	9.5	24 (34%)
2025-09-07	1	@ NE	38	Over	4.5	40 (63%)
2025-01-05	18	vs LAC	21	Under	—	41 (80%)
2024-12-29	17	@ NO	14	Under	—	58 (75%)
2024-12-22	16	vs JAX	0	Under	—	45 (61%)
2024-12-16	15	vs ATL	11	Under	—	47 (70%)
2024-12-08	14	@ TB	68	Over	—	54 (81%)
2024-11-29	13	@ KC	5	Under	—	43 (63%)
2024-11-24	12	vs DEN	11	Under	—	34 (44%)
2024-11-17	11	@ MIA	5	Under	—	34 (52%)
2024-09-22	3	vs CAR	7	Under	—	31 (48%)
2024-09-15	2	@ BAL	11	Under	—	39 (62%)
2024-09-08	1	@ LAC	3	Under	—	34 (57%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 29.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 10m ago.