NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Deebo Samuel Sr. WR

SF vs SEA · Sun Oct 11 · 4:25 PM ET

34.5 Rec Yds O -114U -114

Hit rate · All 54%19/35 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 46.2
Graph avg: 45.2
Graph median: 41.00–110
Over the close: 50%9/18

2026 per game

Targets4.2▼-1.9

Rec3.5▼-1.0

Rec Yds46.2▲+0.8

Rec TD0.8▲+0.4

Snaps35.8▼-8.8

Snap %61.3%▼-11.0

2024

54

Sep 09
110

Sep 15
58

Sep 29
11

Oct 06
102

Oct 10
0

Oct 20
71

Oct 27
62

Nov 10
22

Nov 17
21

Nov 24
20

Dec 01
22

Dec 08
16

Dec 12
96

Dec 22
5

Dec 30
2025

77

Sep 07
44

Sep 11
11

Sep 21
72

Sep 28
96

Oct 05
15

Oct 13
11

Oct 27
41

Nov 02
29

Nov 09
74

Nov 16
64

Nov 30
27

Dec 07
43

Dec 14
35

Dec 20
68

Dec 25
20

Jan 04
2026

48

Sep 10
31

Sep 20
80

Sep 27
26

Oct 04
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 34.5

Home 45% 9/20 · avg 36.8
Away 67% 10/15 · avg 56.4
vs SEA 67% 2/3 · avg 55.0

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 24.5 66% 23/35
O 29.5 57% 20/35
O 34.5 Today 54% 19/35
O 39.5 51% 18/35
O 44.5 43% 15/35

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs SEA

What SEA allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds129.4#21
Receptions9.7#29
Targets17.0#20
Yds/Target7.6#23
Rec TD0.7#24

WRs vs SEA · 2026

Each main WR who faced SEA this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-31.7

Avg diff %-53%

Beat their average12% (1/8)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Ladd McConkey	0	61.0	-100%
Oct 04	Tre Harris	60	49.7	+21%
Sep 27	Stefon Diggs	33	45.7	-28%
Sep 27	Antonio Williams	15	36.3	-59%
Sep 20	Michael Wilson	18	80.0	-78%
Sep 20	Kendrick Bourne	11	48.5	-77%
Sep 09	Romeo Doubs	0	67.7	-100%
Sep 09	Mack Hollins	51	52.7	-3%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

SF offense

SF offense: Share of SF pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%8.8 yds	5%30.1 yds	4%12.2 yds
Short	38%7.1 yds	19%6.8 yds	27%5.7 yds

Share of SF pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

SEA defense

SEA defense: Throws SEA faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%8.5 yds#24	3%30.0 yds#1	9%10.2 yds#23
Short	31%5.1 yds#27	18%4.9 yds#30	32%4.6 yds#30

Throws SEA faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	9%18.8 yds	2%38.0 yds
Short	38%2.8 yds	14%6.5 yds	38%9.2 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of SF targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Mike Evans WR	4	6.0	24	21.4%
2	George Kittle TE	4	5.5	22	20.3%
3	Christian McCaffrey RB	4	5.5	22	19.8%
4	Deebo Samuel Sr. WR	4	4.2	17	15.1%
5	Demarcus Robinson WR	2	3.0	6	11.6%
6	Kyle Juszczyk FB	3	2.0	6	8.0%
7	Jordan Watkins WR	1	2.0	2	7.7%
8	Brandin Cooks WR	1	1.0	1	3.4%
9	Jacob Cowing WR	4	0.8	3	2.8%
10	Luke Farrell TE	4	0.8	3	2.4%

Game log · 35 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 34.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	vs DEN	26	Under	34.5	44 (67%)
2026-09-27	3	vs ARI	80	Over	40.5	41 (76%)
2026-09-20	2	vs MIA	31	Under	35.5	31 (60%)
2026-09-10	1	@ LA	48	Over	28.5	27 (42%)
2026-01-04	18	@ PHI	20	Under	23.5	49 (71%)
2025-12-25	17	vs DAL	68	Over	75.5	36 (82%)
2025-12-20	16	vs PHI	35	Over	44.5	44 (81%)
2025-12-14	15	@ NYG	43	Over	32.5	37 (61%)
2025-12-07	14	@ MIN	27	Under	35.5	27 (52%)
2025-11-30	13	vs DEN	64	Over	38.5	63 (70%)
2025-11-16	11	@ MIA	74	Over	47.5	50 (75%)
2025-11-09	10	vs DET	29	Under	20.5	42 (78%)
2025-11-02	9	vs SEA	41	Over	—	44 (68%)
2025-10-27	8	@ KC	11	Under	15.5	39 (74%)
2025-10-13	6	vs CHI	15	Under	15.5	47 (72%)
2025-10-05	5	@ LAC	96	Over	80.5	46 (78%)
2025-09-28	4	@ ATL	72	Over	56.5	49 (86%)
2025-09-21	3	vs LV	11	Under	45.5	25 (43%)
2025-09-11	2	@ GB	44	Over	—	61 (88%)
2025-09-07	1	vs NYG	77	Over	60.5	54 (77%)
2024-12-30	17	vs DET	5	Under	—	53 (83%)
2024-12-22	16	@ MIA	96	Over	—	53 (83%)
2024-12-12	15	vs LA	16	Under	—	42 (78%)
2024-12-08	14	vs CHI	22	Under	—	48 (79%)
2024-12-01	13	@ BUF	20	Under	—	36 (75%)
2024-11-24	12	@ GB	21	Under	—	33 (67%)
2024-11-17	11	vs SEA	22	Under	—	55 (87%)
2024-11-10	10	@ TB	62	Over	—	50 (78%)
2024-10-27	8	vs DAL	71	Over	—	42 (62%)
2024-10-20	7	vs KC	0	Under	—	4 (6%)
2024-10-10	6	@ SEA	102	Over	—	53 (82%)
2024-10-06	5	vs ARI	11	Under	—	52 (81%)
2024-09-29	4	vs NE	58	Over	—	48 (76%)
2024-09-15	2	@ MIN	110	Over	—	60 (86%)
2024-09-09	1	vs NYJ	54	Over	—	53 (74%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 34.5Underdog 34.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: FanDuel, updated 10m ago.