NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Tony Pollard RB

TEN vs HOU · Sun Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET

8.5 Rec Yds O -116U -108

Hit rate · All 62%23/37 Odds imply 50.8% Over

Season avg: 6.0
Graph avg: 12.6
Graph median: 12.0-5–43
Over the close: 38%8/21

2026 per game

Carries13.5▼-0.7

Rush Yds55.2▼-8.4

Rush TD0.2-0.0

Targets2.8▲+0.3

Rec2.0▲+0.1

Rec Yds6.0▼-6.1

Snaps30.2▼-8.4

Snap %53.2%▼-9.2

2024

12

Sep 08
40

Sep 15
15

Sep 22
20

Sep 30
-5

Oct 13
4

Oct 20
23

Oct 27
26

Nov 03
19

Nov 10
14

Nov 17
10

Nov 24
33

Dec 01
22

Dec 08
0

Dec 15
5

Dec 22
0

Jan 05
2025

29

Sep 07
0

Sep 14
14

Sep 21
12

Sep 28
11

Oct 05
13

Oct 12
43

Oct 19
9

Oct 26
12

Nov 02
4

Nov 16
21

Nov 23
3

Nov 30
0

Dec 07
8

Dec 14
0

Dec 21
10

Dec 28
17

Jan 04
2026

-1

Sep 13
1

Sep 20
22

Sep 27
2

Oct 04
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 8.5

Home 53% 10/19 · avg 11.5
Away 72% 13/18 · avg 13.8
vs HOU 50% 2/4 · avg 6.5

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 3.5 73% 27/37
O 8.5 Today 62% 23/37
O 13.5 40% 15/37
O 18.5 30% 11/37

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs HOU

What HOU allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds75.3#27
Yds/Carry3.5#30
Rush TD0.5#23
Targets5.5#14
Rec Yds26.5#25

RBs vs HOU · 2026

Each main RB who faced HOU this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-9.6

Avg diff %+10%

Beat their average50% (2/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Javonte Williams	21	18.2	+15%
Sep 27	Jonathan Taylor	4	21.7	-82%
Sep 20	Chase Brown	2	33.7	-94%
Sep 13	James Cook	12	4.0	+200%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

TEN offense

TEN offense: Share of TEN pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%5.7 yds	2%12.0 yds	6%15.8 yds
Short	34%5.0 yds	10%4.6 yds	41%4.3 yds

Share of TEN pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

HOU defense

HOU defense: Throws HOU faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%13.1 yds#8	3%23.1 yds#4	7%13.7 yds#6
Short	27%5.2 yds#26	19%6.6 yds#19	34%5.0 yds#24

Throws HOU faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	4%0.0 yds	0%	0%
Short	36%3.4 yds	18%3.2 yds	43%3.1 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of TEN targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Carnell Tate WR	4	8.0	32	29.9%
2	Wan'Dale Robinson WR	4	5.8	23	19.1%
3	Gunnar Helm TE	4	3.0	12	11.2%
4	Elic Ayomanor WR	4	2.5	10	10.1%
5	Tony Pollard RB	4	2.8	11	9.7%
6	Tyjae Spears RB	4	1.8	7	7.4%
7	Calvin Ridley WR	3	1.7	5	7.3%
8	Daniel Bellinger TE	4	1.2	5	4.7%
9	Chimere Dike WR	4	0.8	3	2.5%

Game log · 37 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 8.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	@ BAL	2	Under	8.5	34 (53%)
2026-09-27	3	@ NYG	22	Over	6.5	32 (53%)
2026-09-20	2	vs PHI	1	Under	7.5	29 (55%)
2026-09-13	1	vs NYJ	-1	Under	9.5	26 (52%)
2026-01-04	18	@ JAX	17	Over	18.5	34 (63%)
2025-12-28	17	vs NO	10	Over	0.5	37 (50%)
2025-12-21	16	vs KC	0	Under	7.5	40 (55%)
2025-12-14	15	@ SF	8	Under	8.5	28 (53%)
2025-12-07	14	@ CLE	0	Under	0.5	39 (59%)
2025-11-30	13	vs JAX	3	Under	10.5	27 (46%)
2025-11-23	12	vs SEA	21	Over	10.5	39 (51%)
2025-11-16	11	vs HOU	4	Under	9.5	29 (49%)
2025-11-02	9	vs LAC	12	Over	12.5	29 (62%)
2025-10-26	8	@ IND	9	Over	15.5	33 (46%)
2025-10-19	7	vs NE	43	Over	7.5	30 (57%)
2025-10-12	6	@ LV	13	Over	10.5	26 (43%)
2025-10-05	5	@ ARI	11	Over	9.5	49 (73%)
2025-09-28	4	@ HOU	12	Over	10.5	43 (86%)
2025-09-21	3	vs IND	14	Over	12.5	64 (91%)
2025-09-14	2	vs LA	0	Under	16.5	59 (89%)
2025-09-07	1	@ DEN	29	Over	29.5	51 (89%)
2025-01-05	18	vs HOU	0	Under	—	45 (73%)
2024-12-22	16	@ IND	5	Under	—	24 (39%)
2024-12-15	15	vs CIN	0	Under	—	31 (44%)
2024-12-08	14	vs JAX	22	Over	—	40 (63%)
2024-12-01	13	@ WAS	33	Over	—	40 (73%)
2024-11-24	12	@ HOU	10	Over	—	63 (94%)
2024-11-17	11	vs MIN	14	Over	—	37 (63%)
2024-11-10	10	@ LAC	19	Over	—	29 (54%)
2024-11-03	9	vs NE	26	Over	—	66 (86%)
2024-10-27	8	@ DET	23	Over	—	62 (82%)
2024-10-20	7	@ BUF	4	Under	—	65 (89%)
2024-10-13	6	vs IND	-5	Under	—	43 (74%)
2024-09-30	4	@ MIA	20	Over	—	39 (60%)
2024-09-22	3	vs GB	15	Over	—	34 (63%)
2024-09-15	2	vs NYJ	40	Over	—	44 (67%)
2024-09-08	1	@ CHI	12	Over	—	39 (61%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 8.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 13m ago.