NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Amon-Ra St. Brown WR

DET vs ARI · Sun Oct 11 · 4:25 PM ET

80.5 Rec Yds O -114U -110

Hit rate · All 36%14/39 Odds imply 50.4% Over

Season avg: 75.8
Graph avg: 79.6
Graph median: 70.00–193
Over the close: 53%10/19

2026 per game

Targets11.5▲+1.4

Rec7.8▲+0.9

Rec Yds75.8▼-6.7

Rec TD1.2▲+0.6

Snaps61.8▲+6.5

Snap %88.8%▲+3.5

2024

13

Sep 08
119

Sep 15
75

Sep 22
45

Sep 30
37

Oct 13
112

Oct 20
7

Oct 27
56

Nov 03
60

Nov 10
161

Nov 17
62

Nov 24
73

Nov 28
43

Dec 05
193

Dec 15
70

Dec 22
60

Dec 30
77

Jan 05
137

Jan 18
2025

45

Sep 07
115

Sep 14
77

Sep 22
70

Sep 28
100

Oct 05
45

Oct 12
86

Oct 20
97

Nov 02
58

Nov 09
42

Nov 16
149

Nov 23
0

Nov 27
92

Dec 04
164

Dec 14
54

Dec 21
68

Dec 25
139

Jan 04
2026

67

Sep 13
142

Sep 17
19

Sep 27
75

Oct 04
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 80.5

Home 45% 9/20 · avg 80.8
Away 26% 5/19 · avg 78.3
vs ARI 0% 0/1 · avg 75.0

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 60.5 62% 24/39
O 70.5 49% 19/39
O 80.5 Today 36% 14/39
O 90.5 33% 13/39
O 100.5 26% 10/39

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs ARI

What ARI allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds143.1#15
Receptions9.8#26
Targets15.5#30
Yds/Target9.2#5
Rec TD1.5#1

WRs vs ARI · 2026

Each main WR who faced ARI this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+13.5

Avg diff %+40%

Beat their average50% (4/8)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Malik Nabers	112	32.0	+250%
Oct 04	Darnell Mooney	0	31.7	-100%
Sep 27	Mike Evans	34	59.7	-43%
Sep 27	Deebo Samuel Sr.	80	35.0	+129%
Sep 20	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	155	108.7	+43%
Sep 20	Cooper Kupp	20	31.3	-36%
Sep 13	Tre Harris	20	63.0	-68%
Sep 13	Ladd McConkey	82	33.7	+144%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

DET offense

DET offense: Share of DET pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	5%14.8 yds	6%15.0 yds	5%14.2 yds
Short	29%5.2 yds	26%8.9 yds	29%5.6 yds

Share of DET pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

ARI defense

ARI defense: Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%14.7 yds#4	4%13.3 yds#21	10%12.1 yds#11
Short	31%5.7 yds#19	18%8.6 yds#6	31%7.4 yds#2

Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	2%25.0 yds	9%11.4 yds	4%18.6 yds
Short	26%4.7 yds	24%7.7 yds	34%6.2 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of DET targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Amon-Ra St. Brown WR	4	11.5	46	29.4%
2	Sam LaPorta TE	4	8.0	32	19.3%
3	Jahmyr Gibbs RB	4	7.0	28	18.4%
4	Jameson Williams WR	4	6.2	25	15.5%
5	Isaac TeSlaa WR	4	4.2	17	10.3%
6	Brock Wright TE	4	1.2	5	3.2%
7	Jackson Meeks WR	1	1.0	1	3.2%
8	Sione Vaki RB	4	1.2	5	3.1%

Game log · 39 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 80.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	@ CAR	75	Under	78.5	68 (96%)
2026-09-27	3	vs NYJ	19	Under	75.5	48 (74%)
2026-09-17	2	@ BUF	142	Over	79.5	62 (95%)
2026-09-13	1	vs NO	67	Under	78.5	69 (90%)
2026-01-04	18	@ CHI	139	Over	114.5	69 (95%)
2025-12-25	17	@ MIN	68	Under	80.5	53 (83%)
2025-12-21	16	vs PIT	54	Under	82.5	72 (97%)
2025-12-14	15	@ LA	164	Over	79.5	61 (95%)
2025-12-04	14	vs DAL	92	Over	55.5	57 (92%)
2025-11-27	13	vs GB	0	Under	—	4 (6%)
2025-11-23	12	vs NYG	149	Over	124.5	66 (97%)
2025-11-16	11	@ PHI	42	Under	42.5	57 (97%)
2025-11-09	10	@ WAS	58	Under	58.5	54 (77%)
2025-11-02	9	vs MIN	97	Over	70.5	61 (95%)
2025-10-20	7	vs TB	86	Over	90.5	62 (91%)
2025-10-12	6	@ KC	45	Under	53.5	48 (89%)
2025-10-05	5	@ CIN	100	Over	75.5	50 (81%)
2025-09-28	4	vs CLE	70	Under	54.5	54 (90%)
2025-09-22	3	@ BAL	77	Under	60.5	58 (85%)
2025-09-14	2	vs CHI	115	Over	66.5	50 (85%)
2025-09-07	1	@ GB	45	Under	—	63 (94%)
2025-01-18	20 (P)	vs WAS	137	Over	—	66 (96%)
2025-01-05	18	vs MIN	77	Under	—	55 (81%)
2024-12-30	17	@ SF	60	Under	—	56 (79%)
2024-12-22	16	@ CHI	70	Under	—	55 (85%)
2024-12-15	15	vs BUF	193	Over	—	72 (91%)
2024-12-05	14	vs GB	43	Under	—	68 (85%)
2024-11-28	13	vs CHI	73	Under	—	66 (94%)
2024-11-24	12	@ IND	62	Under	—	68 (94%)
2024-11-17	11	vs JAX	161	Over	—	63 (80%)
2024-11-10	10	@ HOU	60	Under	—	64 (98%)
2024-11-03	9	@ GB	56	Under	—	53 (93%)
2024-10-27	8	vs TEN	7	Under	—	42 (88%)
2024-10-20	7	@ MIN	112	Over	—	54 (95%)
2024-10-13	6	@ DAL	37	Under	—	43 (63%)
2024-09-30	4	vs SEA	45	Under	—	47 (89%)
2024-09-22	3	@ ARI	75	Under	—	65 (96%)
2024-09-15	2	vs TB	119	Over	—	79 (92%)
2024-09-08	1	vs LA	13	Under	—	60 (98%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 79.5PrizePicks 80.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 14m ago.