NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Quinshon Judkins RB

CLE vs NYJ · Sun Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET

15.5 Rec Yds O -116U -108

Hit rate · Last 20 44%8/18 Odds imply 50.8% Over

Season avg: 24.0
Graph avg: 14.8
Graph median: 10.0-4–58
Over the close: 31%4/13

2026 per game

Carries14.8▼-1.7

Rush Yds44.2▼-14.8

Rush TD0.2▼-0.2

Targets4.0▲+1.4

Rec3.8▲+1.9

Rec Yds24.0▲+11.8

Snaps37.5▲+5.2

Snap %62.3%▲+11.8

2025

10

Sep 14
1

Sep 21
33

Sep 28
18

Oct 05
0

Oct 12
0

Oct 19
-2

Oct 26
10

Nov 09
0

Nov 16
0

Nov 23
18

Nov 30
58

Dec 07
-4

Dec 14
29

Dec 21
2026

17

Sep 13
27

Sep 20
9

Sep 27
43

Oct 01
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 15.5

Home 56% 5/9 · avg 19.6
Away 33% 3/9 · avg 10.1
vs NYJ 0% 0/1 · avg 10.0

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 5.5 61% 11/18
O 10.5 44% 8/18
O 15.5 Today 44% 8/18
O 20.5 28% 5/18
O 25.5 28% 5/18

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs NYJ

What NYJ allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds124.5#1
Yds/Carry4.7#7
Rush TD1.1#4
Targets5.6#12
Rec Yds46.5#1

RBs vs NYJ · 2026

Each main RB who faced NYJ this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+3.0

Avg diff %+0%

Beat their average50% (2/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	D'Andre Swift	16	22.7	-29%
Sep 27	Jahmyr Gibbs	65	40.7	+60%
Sep 20	MarShawn Lloyd	6	14.3	-58%
Sep 13	Tyjae Spears	12	9.3	+29%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

CLE offense

CLE offense: Share of CLE pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	4%13.1 yds	6%14.1 yds	4%8.9 yds
Short	34%5.7 yds	19%7.7 yds	32%4.9 yds

Share of CLE pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

NYJ defense

NYJ defense: Throws NYJ faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%9.7 yds#20	4%14.6 yds#18	7%12.5 yds#9
Short	33%6.3 yds#8	20%7.1 yds#14	29%6.6 yds#4

Throws NYJ faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	0%	0%
Short	43%5.2 yds	19%11.4 yds	38%3.1 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of CLE targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	KC Concepcion WR	4	7.0	28	24.2%
2	Harold Fannin Jr. TE	4	5.8	23	19.7%
3	Denzel Boston WR	4	5.5	22	19.0%
4	Quinshon Judkins RB	4	4.0	16	13.4%
5	Jerry Jeudy WR	3	2.7	8	10.2%
6	Raheim Sanders RB	4	2.8	11	9.9%
7	Blake Whiteheart TE	3	1.0	3	3.7%
8	Michael Burton FB	1	1.0	1	3.3%
9	Isaiah Bond WR	2	1.0	2	3.2%
10	Jaleel McLaughlin RB	2	0.5	1	1.7%

Game log · 18 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 15.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-01	4	vs PIT	43	Over	10.5	42 (66%)
2026-09-27	3	vs CAR	9	Under	13.5	36 (51%)
2026-09-20	2	@ TB	27	Over	12.5	39 (67%)
2026-09-13	1	@ JAX	17	Over	9.5	33 (65%)
2025-12-21	16	vs BUF	29	Over	44.5	26 (39%)
2025-12-14	15	@ CHI	-4	Under	10.5	38 (67%)
2025-12-07	14	vs TEN	58	Over	60.5	32 (46%)
2025-11-30	13	vs SF	18	Over	20.5	38 (60%)
2025-11-23	12	@ LV	0	Under	10.5	25 (49%)
2025-11-16	11	vs BAL	0	Under	10.5	33 (60%)
2025-11-09	10	@ NYJ	10	Under	5.5	38 (52%)
2025-10-26	8	@ NE	-2	Under	10.5	18 (33%)
2025-10-19	7	vs MIA	0	Under	8.5	37 (65%)
2025-10-12	6	@ PIT	0	Under	—	33 (40%)
2025-10-05	5	vs MIN	18	Over	—	39 (56%)
2025-09-28	4	@ DET	33	Over	—	39 (58%)
2025-09-21	3	vs GB	1	Under	—	36 (55%)
2025-09-14	2	@ BAL	10	Under	—	20 (27%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 14.5PrizePicks 15.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 15m ago.