NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Austin Hooper TE

ATL vs BAL · Sun Oct 11 · 8:20 PM ET

6.5 Rec Yds O -114U -110

Hit rate · Last 20 80%16/20 Odds imply 50.4% Over

Season avg: 13.3
Graph avg: 17.7
Graph median: 12.50–39
Over the close: 44%7/16

2026 per game

Targets2.3▲+0.3

Rec1.7▲+0.2

Rec Yds13.3▼-4.6

Rec TD0.3▲+0.2

Snaps19.7▼-13.3

Snap %29.7%▼-21.0

2024

27

Jan 05
2025

10

Sep 07
38

Sep 14
28

Sep 21
24

Sep 28
5

Oct 12
11

Oct 19
38

Oct 26
20

Nov 02
0

Nov 09
39

Nov 23
34

Dec 21
11

Dec 28
5

Jan 04
0

Jan 11
14

Jan 18
10

Feb 08
2026

20

Sep 20
11

Sep 24
9

Oct 05
?

Oct 12

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 6.5

Home 78% 14/18 · avg 18.1
Away 89% 16/18 · avg 26.5
vs BAL 100% 1/1 · avg 34.0

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 1.5 90% 18/20
O 6.5 Today 80% 16/20
O 11.5 50% 10/20
O 16.5 45% 9/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · TEs vs BAL

What BAL allowed to TEs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds38.5#26
Receptions4.2#25
Targets6.3#27
Yds/Target6.1#26
Rec TD0.4#13

TEs vs BAL · 2026

Each main TE who faced BAL this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-6.4

Avg diff %-26%

Beat their average50% (2/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Gunnar Helm	5	18.3	-73%
Sep 27	Jake Ferguson	23	19.8	+16%
Sep 20	Juwan Johnson	66	55.3	+19%
Sep 13	Tyler Warren	13	39.0	-67%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

ATL offense

ATL offense: Share of ATL pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%9.6 yds	3%11.8 yds	9%9.8 yds
Short	36%6.7 yds	18%6.4 yds	28%5.9 yds

Share of ATL pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

BAL defense

BAL defense: Throws BAL faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	5%15.8 yds#2	5%16.8 yds#11	7%15.6 yds#3
Short	31%5.3 yds#23	17%5.7 yds#27	35%5.3 yds#21

Throws BAL faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	12%7.0 yds	0%	8%13.0 yds
Short	32%6.2 yds	20%5.4 yds	28%4.1 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of ATL targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Drake London WR	4	6.2	25	27.7%
2	Bijan Robinson RB	4	4.5	18	21.1%
3	Jahan Dotson WR	4	3.2	13	14.2%
4	Kyle Pitts TE	4	2.2	9	9.7%
5	Austin Hooper TE	3	2.3	7	8.9%
6	Olamide Zaccheaus WR	4	1.8	7	7.2%
7	Zachariah Branch WR	4	1.5	6	6.3%
8	Charlie Woerner TE	2	1.0	2	4.1%
9	Brian Robinson RB	4	0.8	3	2.9%
10	Chris Blair WR	4	0.8	3	2.4%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 6.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-05	4	@ NO	9	Over	6.5	13 (23%)
2026-09-24	3	@ GB	11	Over	6.5	16 (23%)
2026-09-20	2	vs CAR	20	Over	—	30 (43%)
2026-02-08	22 (P)	vs SEA	10	Over	7.5	31 (44%)
2026-01-18	20 (P)	vs HOU	14	Over	9.5	22 (34%)
2026-01-11	19 (P)	vs LAC	0	Under	0.5	38 (59%)
2026-01-04	18	vs MIA	5	Under	5.5	24 (41%)
2025-12-28	17	@ NYJ	11	Over	10.5	27 (41%)
2025-12-21	16	@ BAL	34	Over	30.5	23 (31%)
2025-11-23	12	@ CIN	39	Over	40.5	40 (56%)
2025-11-09	10	@ TB	0	Under	0.5	34 (56%)
2025-11-02	9	vs ATL	20	Over	20.5	36 (53%)
2025-10-26	8	vs CLE	38	Over	38.5	39 (57%)
2025-10-19	7	@ TEN	11	Over	3.5	33 (51%)
2025-10-12	6	@ NO	5	Under	10.5	41 (64%)
2025-09-28	4	vs CAR	24	Over	25.5	32 (65%)
2025-09-21	3	vs PIT	28	Over	—	48 (65%)
2025-09-14	2	@ MIA	38	Over	—	37 (62%)
2025-09-07	1	vs LV	10	Over	10.5	23 (32%)
2025-01-05	18	vs BUF	27	Over	—	43 (67%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 6.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 15m ago.