NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Jaylen Warren RB

PIT vs IND · Sun Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET

17.5 Rec Yds O -113U -111

Hit rate · All 54%20/37 Odds imply 50.2% Over

Season avg: 35.8
Graph avg: 21.9
Graph median: 19.0-4–86
Over the close: 55%11/20

2026 per game

Carries13.8▲+0.6

Rush Yds77.2▲+18.4

Rush TD0.0▼-0.4

Targets5.0▲+2.3

Rec3.2▲+0.8

Rec Yds35.8▲+15.9

Snaps50.2▲+20.0

Snap %73.8%▲+23.3

2024

13

Sep 08
19

Sep 15
-4

Sep 22
11

Oct 13
15

Oct 20
13

Oct 28
29

Nov 10
27

Nov 17
19

Nov 21
55

Dec 01
25

Dec 08
3

Dec 15
44

Dec 21
41

Dec 25
0

Jan 04
19

Jan 11
2025

22

Sep 07
86

Sep 14
34

Sep 21
11

Oct 12
31

Oct 16
11

Oct 26
-2

Nov 02
21

Nov 09
5

Nov 16
0

Nov 23
9

Nov 30
49

Dec 07
15

Dec 15
8

Dec 21
0

Dec 28
33

Jan 04
4

Jan 12
2026

27

Sep 13
34

Sep 20
49

Sep 27
33

Oct 01
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 17.5

Home 39% 7/18 · avg 20.3
Away 68% 13/19 · avg 23.4
vs IND 0% 0/1 · avg -2.0

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 7.5 78% 29/37
O 12.5 65% 24/37
O 17.5 Today 54% 20/37
O 22.5 40% 15/37
O 27.5 32% 12/37

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs IND

What IND allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds97.0#16
Yds/Carry4.2#20
Rush TD0.7#16
Targets4.8#24
Rec Yds24.9#26

RBs vs IND · 2026

Each main RB who faced IND this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+7.9

Avg diff %+496%

Beat their average50% (2/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Jacory Croskey-Merritt	35	1.7	+2000%
Sep 27	David Montgomery	15	17.3	-13%
Sep 20	Emmett Johnson	20	18.0	+11%
Sep 13	Justice Hill	10	11.3	-12%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

PIT offense

PIT offense: Share of PIT pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%8.8 yds	4%14.4 yds	9%7.4 yds
Short	28%5.0 yds	18%7.8 yds	34%5.0 yds

Share of PIT pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

IND defense

IND defense: Throws IND faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%12.5 yds#10	3%12.3 yds#24	10%11.7 yds#13
Short	27%6.2 yds#10	20%9.0 yds#4	33%6.0 yds#7

Throws IND faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	0%	0%
Short	32%3.2 yds	16%13.0 yds	53%7.2 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of PIT targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	DK Metcalf WR	4	8.2	33	22.6%
2	Roman Wilson WR	4	6.0	24	16.8%
3	Jaylen Warren RB	4	5.0	20	13.8%
4	Pat Freiermuth TE	4	4.8	19	13.2%
5	Michael Pittman WR	3	4.0	12	11.5%
6	Germie Bernard WR	3	3.7	11	10.0%
7	Rico Dowdle RB	2	3.5	7	9.5%
8	Darnell Washington TE	4	3.2	13	9.1%
9	Ben Skowronek WR	3	1.3	4	3.7%
10	Robert Tonyan TE	1	1.0	1	3.2%

Game log · 37 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 17.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-01	4	@ CLE	33	Over	25.5	70 (97%)
2026-09-27	3	vs CIN	49	Over	25.5	56 (90%)
2026-09-20	2	@ NE	34	Over	18.5	50 (71%)
2026-09-13	1	vs ATL	27	Over	19.5	25 (37%)
2026-01-12	19 (P)	vs HOU	4	Under	0.5	26 (46%)
2026-01-04	18	vs BAL	33	Over	33.5	28 (37%)
2025-12-28	17	@ CLE	0	Under	11.5	21 (32%)
2025-12-21	16	@ DET	8	Under	10.5	36 (49%)
2025-12-15	15	vs MIA	15	Under	10.5	30 (45%)
2025-12-07	14	@ BAL	49	Over	4.5	26 (50%)
2025-11-30	13	vs BUF	9	Under	10.5	24 (56%)
2025-11-23	12	@ CHI	0	Under	0.5	36 (50%)
2025-11-16	11	vs CIN	5	Under	10.5	18 (28%)
2025-11-09	10	@ LAC	21	Over	16.5	24 (46%)
2025-11-02	9	vs IND	-2	Under	21.5	35 (56%)
2025-10-26	8	vs GB	11	Under	—	39 (62%)
2025-10-16	7	@ CIN	31	Over	35.5	37 (65%)
2025-10-12	6	vs CLE	11	Under	11.5	31 (53%)
2025-09-21	3	@ NE	34	Over	22.5	43 (80%)
2025-09-14	2	vs SEA	86	Over	85.5	36 (58%)
2025-09-07	1	@ NYJ	22	Over	17.5	25 (45%)
2025-01-11	19 (P)	@ BAL	19	Over	—	25 (54%)
2025-01-04	18	vs CIN	0	Under	—	23 (38%)
2024-12-25	17	vs KC	41	Over	—	40 (53%)
2024-12-21	16	@ BAL	44	Over	—	40 (67%)
2024-12-15	15	@ PHI	3	Under	—	23 (53%)
2024-12-08	14	vs CLE	25	Over	—	34 (52%)
2024-12-01	13	@ CIN	55	Over	—	25 (36%)
2024-11-21	12	@ CLE	19	Over	—	39 (57%)
2024-11-17	11	vs BAL	27	Over	—	26 (33%)
2024-11-10	10	@ WAS	29	Over	—	35 (45%)
2024-10-28	8	vs NYG	13	Under	—	26 (39%)
2024-10-20	7	vs NYJ	15	Under	—	35 (51%)
2024-10-13	6	@ LV	11	Under	—	25 (37%)
2024-09-22	3	vs LAC	-4	Under	—	23 (34%)
2024-09-15	2	@ DEN	19	Over	—	32 (48%)
2024-09-08	1	@ ATL	13	Under	—	21 (31%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 14.5PrizePicks 17.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 5m ago.