NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

RJ Harvey RB

DEN vs LAC · Sun Oct 11 · 4:05 PM ET

27.5 Rec Yds O -114U -114

Hit rate · All 32%7/22 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 44.0
Graph avg: 25.3
Graph median: 21.5-1–71
Over the close: 55%11/20

2026 per game

Carries4.0▼-4.7

Rush Yds16.3▼-15.1

Rush TD0.0▼-0.4

Targets7.0▲+3.3

Rec6.7▲+3.7

Rec Yds44.0▲+21.7

Snaps26.3▼-3.0

Snap %43.7%▼-0.1

2025

-1

Sep 07
16

Sep 14
14

Sep 21
40

Sep 29
18

Oct 05
21

Oct 12
2

Oct 19
5

Oct 26
51

Nov 02
9

Nov 06
20

Nov 16
27

Nov 30
25

Dec 07
0

Dec 14
71

Dec 21
33

Dec 25
5

Jan 04
46

Jan 17
22

Jan 25
2026

23

Sep 14
41

Sep 27
68

Oct 04
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 27.5

Home 33% 4/12 · avg 21.7
Away 30% 3/10 · avg 29.6
vs LAC 0% 0/2 · avg 9.5

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 17.5 64% 14/22
O 22.5 46% 10/22
O 27.5 Today 32% 7/22
O 32.5 32% 7/22
O 37.5 27% 6/22

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs LAC

What LAC allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds88.3#24
Yds/Carry3.8#25
Rush TD0.4#30
Targets4.9#21
Rec Yds29.6#17

RBs vs LAC · 2026

Each main RB who faced LAC this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-15.8

Avg diff %-68%

Beat their average0% (0/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Brady Russell	0	20.0	-100%
Sep 27	James Cook	0	8.0	-100%
Sep 20	Ashton Jeanty	15	50.0	-70%
Sep 13	Jeremiyah Love	9	9.0	+0%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

DEN offense

DEN offense: Share of DEN pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%13.7 yds	2%8.2 yds	6%9.9 yds
Short	34%5.7 yds	11%4.5 yds	38%4.8 yds

Share of DEN pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

LAC defense

LAC defense: Throws LAC faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	10%13.3 yds#7	3%9.6 yds#30	5%12.7 yds#8
Short	33%6.0 yds#12	16%7.3 yds#13	32%6.4 yds#5

Throws LAC faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	0%	2%0.0 yds
Short	40%6.2 yds	14%3.5 yds	44%7.0 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of DEN targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	RJ Harvey RB	3	7.0	21	21.2%
2	Jaylen Waddle WR	4	6.5	26	21.0%
3	Courtland Sutton WR	4	5.5	22	17.7%
4	Evan Engram TE	4	3.2	13	10.4%
5	Pat Bryant WR	4	3.0	12	10.0%
6	Adam Trautman TE	2	2.0	4	6.9%
7	Tyler Badie RB	3	2.0	6	6.3%
8	Nate Adkins TE	3	1.7	5	5.6%
9	Jonah Coleman RB	2	1.5	3	5.2%
10	Troy Franklin WR	3	1.3	4	4.6%

Game log · 22 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 27.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	@ SF	68	Over	21.5	29 (44%)
2026-09-27	3	vs LA	41	Over	16.5	24 (36%)
2026-09-14	1	@ KC	23	Under	16.5	26 (51%)
2026-01-25	21 (P)	vs NE	22	Under	21.5	31 (53%)
2026-01-17	20 (P)	vs BUF	46	Over	18.5	45 (62%)
2026-01-04	18	vs LAC	5	Under	0.5	33 (56%)
2025-12-25	17	@ KC	33	Over	32.5	47 (65%)
2025-12-21	16	vs JAX	71	Over	71.5	39 (59%)
2025-12-14	15	vs GB	0	Under	—	46 (68%)
2025-12-07	14	@ LV	25	Under	25.5	50 (68%)
2025-11-30	13	@ WAS	27	Under	17.5	33 (47%)
2025-11-16	11	vs KC	20	Under	20.5	38 (61%)
2025-11-06	10	vs LV	9	Under	9.5	17 (28%)
2025-11-02	9	@ HOU	51	Over	9.5	20 (32%)
2025-10-26	8	vs DAL	5	Under	10.5	17 (27%)
2025-10-19	7	vs NYG	2	Under	2.5	20 (25%)
2025-10-12	6	@ NYJ	21	Under	21.5	17 (28%)
2025-10-05	5	@ PHI	18	Under	13.5	15 (20%)
2025-09-29	4	vs CIN	40	Over	10.5	33 (41%)
2025-09-21	3	@ LAC	14	Under	15.5	15 (29%)
2025-09-14	2	@ IND	16	Under	—	19 (33%)
2025-09-07	1	vs TEN	-1	Under	10.5	22 (29%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 27.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: FanDuel, updated 15m ago.