NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Woody Marks RB

HOU vs TEN · Sun Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET

8.5 Rec Yds O -108U -118

Hit rate · Last 20 35%7/20 Odds imply 49.0% Over

Season avg: 7.8
Graph avg: 11.1
Graph median: 6.5-5–50
Over the close: 33%1/3

2026 per game

Carries7.0▼-5.7

Rush Yds21.8▼-24.5

Rush TD0.5▲+0.3

Targets2.2+0.0

Rec1.8▲+0.3

Rec Yds7.8▼-4.9

Snaps30.5▼-6.7

Snap %45.0%▼-8.5

2025

9

Sep 21
50

Sep 28
0

Oct 05
20

Oct 20
49

Oct 26
0

Nov 02
18

Nov 09
7

Nov 16
-5

Nov 20
3

Nov 30
8

Dec 07
8

Dec 14
4

Dec 27
0

Jan 04
0

Jan 12
19

Jan 18
2026

-2

Sep 13
27

Sep 20
6

Sep 27
0

Oct 04
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 8.5

Home 46% 5/11 · avg 16.5
Away 27% 3/11 · avg 6.9
vs TEN 50% 1/2 · avg 28.5

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 3.5 60% 12/20
O 8.5 Today 35% 7/20
O 13.5 30% 6/20
O 18.5 25% 5/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs TEN

What TEN allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds75.6#26
Yds/Carry3.4#32
Rush TD0.7#15
Targets4.4#29
Rec Yds32.8#14

RBs vs TEN · 2026

Each main RB who faced TEN this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-1.0

Avg diff %+52%

Beat their average25% (1/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Derrick Henry	6	12.7	-53%
Sep 27	Cam Skattebo	40	9.0	+344%
Sep 20	Will Shipley	5	6.3	-21%
Sep 13	Breece Hall	16	43.0	-63%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

HOU offense

HOU offense: Share of HOU pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%9.3 yds	3%23.0 yds	8%8.5 yds
Short	24%4.9 yds	22%9.0 yds	36%5.7 yds

Share of HOU pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

TEN defense

TEN defense: Throws TEN faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%11.7 yds#12	4%24.2 yds#3	8%14.8 yds#5
Short	33%6.5 yds#7	16%9.4 yds#3	32%5.8 yds#14

Throws TEN faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	4%0.0 yds	0%	0%
Short	27%2.2 yds	23%5.4 yds	46%3.0 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of HOU targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Nico Collins WR	2	9.0	18	28.9%
2	Xavier Hutchinson WR	4	6.5	26	19.4%
3	Dalton Schultz TE	4	6.8	27	17.3%
4	Jared Wayne WR	3	4.0	12	10.9%
5	Kayshon Boutte WR	4	3.2	13	9.7%
6	Jaylin Noel WR	4	3.0	12	8.7%
7	Foster Moreau TE	4	2.2	9	7.3%
8	Woody Marks RB	4	2.2	9	5.6%
9	David Montgomery RB	4	1.8	7	5.0%
10	Lewis Bond WR	1	1.0	1	4.0%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 8.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	vs DAL	0	Under	9.5	24 (44%)
2026-09-27	3	@ IND	6	Under	11.5	20 (37%)
2026-09-20	2	vs CIN	27	Over	10.5	38 (48%)
2026-09-13	1	vs BUF	-2	Under	—	40 (51%)
2026-01-18	20 (P)	@ NE	19	Over	—	51 (68%)
2026-01-12	19 (P)	@ PIT	0	Under	—	48 (71%)
2026-01-04	18	vs IND	0	Under	—	31 (46%)
2025-12-27	17	@ LAC	4	Under	—	44 (68%)
2025-12-14	15	vs ARI	8	Under	—	15 (22%)
2025-12-07	14	@ KC	8	Under	—	61 (87%)
2025-11-30	13	@ IND	3	Under	—	41 (54%)
2025-11-20	12	vs BUF	-5	Under	—	41 (69%)
2025-11-16	11	@ TEN	7	Under	—	46 (66%)
2025-11-09	10	vs JAX	18	Over	—	60 (80%)
2025-11-02	9	vs DEN	0	Under	—	35 (48%)
2025-10-26	8	vs SF	49	Over	—	32 (40%)
2025-10-20	7	@ SEA	20	Over	—	48 (63%)
2025-10-05	5	@ BAL	0	Under	—	27 (39%)
2025-09-28	4	vs TEN	50	Over	—	40 (56%)
2025-09-21	3	@ JAX	9	Over	—	30 (48%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 8.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 10m ago.