NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

DK Metcalf WR

PIT vs IND · Sun Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET

53.5 Rec Yds O -114U -114

Hit rate · All 46%16/35 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 53.2
Graph avg: 59.9
Graph median: 50.06–148
Over the close: 14%2/14

2026 per game

Targets8.2▲+1.8

Rec4.0▲+0.2

Rec Yds53.2▼-2.5

Rec TD0.2▼-0.1

Snaps65.2▲+13.7

Snap %96.2%▲+9.1

2024

29

Sep 08
129

Sep 15
104

Sep 22
104

Sep 30
55

Oct 06
48

Oct 10
99

Oct 20
70

Nov 17
59

Nov 24
66

Dec 01
49

Dec 08
28

Dec 15
57

Dec 22
42

Dec 26
53

Jan 05
2025

83

Sep 07
20

Sep 14
32

Sep 21
126

Sep 28
95

Oct 12
50

Oct 16
55

Oct 26
6

Nov 02
35

Nov 09
49

Nov 16
22

Nov 23
32

Nov 30
148

Dec 07
55

Dec 15
42

Dec 21
42

Jan 12
2026

40

Sep 13
27

Sep 20
31

Sep 27
115

Oct 01
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 53.5

Home 44% 8/18 · avg 51.7
Away 47% 8/17 · avg 68.6
vs IND 0% 0/1 · avg 6.0

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 43.5 60% 21/35
O 48.5 57% 20/35
O 53.5 Today 46% 16/35
O 58.5 34% 12/35
O 63.5 31% 11/35

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs IND

What IND allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds179.9#3
Receptions12.3#7
Targets19.6#7
Yds/Target9.2#6
Rec TD0.9#15

WRs vs IND · 2026

Each main WR who faced IND this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+1.6

Avg diff %+0%

Beat their average50% (4/8)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Stefon Diggs	35	45.0	-22%
Oct 04	Antonio Williams	21	34.3	-39%
Sep 27	Jaylin Noel	17	56.3	-70%
Sep 27	Xavier Hutchinson	51	38.3	+33%
Sep 20	Rashee Rice	83	53.5	+55%
Sep 20	Tyquan Thornton	86	44.3	+94%
Sep 13	Zay Flowers	150	101.0	+49%
Sep 13	Rashod Bateman	0	57.0	-100%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

PIT offense

PIT offense: Share of PIT pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%8.8 yds	4%14.4 yds	9%7.4 yds
Short	28%5.0 yds	18%7.8 yds	34%5.0 yds

Share of PIT pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

IND defense

IND defense: Throws IND faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%12.5 yds#10	3%12.3 yds#24	10%11.7 yds#13
Short	27%6.2 yds#10	20%9.0 yds#4	33%6.0 yds#7

Throws IND faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	17%8.5 yds	5%5.5 yds	12%13.7 yds
Short	27%4.8 yds	11%8.9 yds	28%6.3 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of PIT targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	DK Metcalf WR	4	8.2	33	22.6%
2	Roman Wilson WR	4	6.0	24	16.8%
3	Jaylen Warren RB	4	5.0	20	13.8%
4	Pat Freiermuth TE	4	4.8	19	13.2%
5	Michael Pittman WR	3	4.0	12	11.5%
6	Germie Bernard WR	3	3.7	11	10.0%
7	Rico Dowdle RB	2	3.5	7	9.5%
8	Darnell Washington TE	4	3.2	13	9.1%
9	Ben Skowronek WR	3	1.3	4	3.7%
10	Robert Tonyan TE	1	1.0	1	3.2%

Game log · 35 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 53.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-01	4	@ CLE	115	Over	46.5	70 (97%)
2026-09-27	3	vs CIN	31	Under	52.5	59 (95%)
2026-09-20	2	@ NE	27	Under	59.5	68 (97%)
2026-09-13	1	vs ATL	40	Under	48.5	64 (96%)
2026-01-12	19 (P)	vs HOU	42	Under	44.5	49 (86%)
2025-12-21	16	@ DET	42	Under	58.5	65 (88%)
2025-12-15	15	vs MIA	55	Over	55.5	52 (79%)
2025-12-07	14	@ BAL	148	Over	148.5	43 (83%)
2025-11-30	13	vs BUF	32	Under	32.5	37 (86%)
2025-11-23	12	@ CHI	22	Under	25.5	61 (85%)
2025-11-16	11	vs CIN	49	Under	40.5	56 (86%)
2025-11-09	10	@ LAC	35	Under	47.5	48 (92%)
2025-11-02	9	vs IND	6	Under	10.5	51 (82%)
2025-10-26	8	vs GB	55	Over	—	59 (94%)
2025-10-16	7	@ CIN	50	Under	65.5	56 (98%)
2025-10-12	6	vs CLE	95	Over	—	49 (83%)
2025-09-28	4	vs MIN	126	Over	—	42 (79%)
2025-09-21	3	@ NE	32	Under	—	48 (89%)
2025-09-14	2	vs SEA	20	Under	—	56 (90%)
2025-09-07	1	@ NYJ	83	Over	—	53 (95%)
2025-01-05	18	@ LA	53	Under	—	49 (89%)
2024-12-26	17	@ CHI	42	Under	—	46 (88%)
2024-12-22	16	vs MIN	57	Over	—	57 (89%)
2024-12-15	15	vs GB	28	Under	—	55 (93%)
2024-12-08	14	@ ARI	49	Under	—	51 (80%)
2024-12-01	13	@ NYJ	66	Over	—	48 (75%)
2024-11-24	12	vs ARI	59	Over	—	50 (78%)
2024-11-17	11	@ SF	70	Over	—	54 (90%)
2024-10-20	7	@ ATL	99	Over	—	47 (78%)
2024-10-10	6	vs SF	48	Under	—	70 (90%)
2024-10-06	5	vs NYG	55	Over	—	58 (100%)
2024-09-30	4	@ DET	104	Over	—	74 (82%)
2024-09-22	3	vs MIA	104	Over	—	53 (83%)
2024-09-15	2	@ NE	129	Over	—	61 (87%)
2024-09-08	1	vs DEN	29	Under	—	59 (88%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 53.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: FanDuel, updated 15m ago.