NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Dalton Kincaid TE

BUF vs LAR · Mon Oct 12 · 8:15 PM ET

51.5 Rec Yds O -111U -113

Hit rate · All 24%8/34 Odds imply 49.8% Over

Season avg: 67.5
Graph avg: 43.3
Graph median: 37.00–130
Over the close: 47%8/17

2026 per game

Targets4.8▲+0.5

Rec3.8▲+0.3

Rec Yds67.5▲+18.8

Rec TD0.2▼-0.2

Snaps42.5▲+16.2

Snap %66.0%▲+27.3

2024

11

Sep 08
33

Sep 12
41

Sep 23
47

Sep 29
34

Oct 06
51

Oct 14
52

Oct 20
31

Oct 27
32

Nov 03
24

Nov 10
53

Dec 15
15

Dec 22
24

Dec 29
47

Jan 12
11

Jan 19
13

Jan 26
2025

48

Sep 07
37

Sep 14
66

Sep 18
28

Sep 28
108

Oct 05
23

Oct 26
101

Nov 02
37

Nov 09
41

Dec 07
34

Dec 14
0

Dec 21
48

Jan 04
28

Jan 11
83

Jan 17
2026

130

Sep 13
95

Sep 17
38

Sep 27
7

Oct 04
?

Oct 13

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 51.5

Home 28% 5/18 · avg 45.2
Away 19% 3/16 · avg 41.1
vs LAR No games

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 41.5 38% 13/34
O 46.5 38% 13/34
O 51.5 Today 24% 8/34
O 56.5 18% 6/34
O 61.5 18% 6/34

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · TEs vs LAR

What LAR allowed to TEs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds38.5#27
Receptions4.3#24
Targets7.3#17
Yds/Target5.3#31
Rec TD0.4#16

TEs vs LAR · 2026

Each main TE who faced LAR this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-28.2

Avg diff %-80%

Beat their average0% (0/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Johnny Mundt	0	6.0	-100%
Sep 27	Evan Engram	0	22.0	-100%
Sep 21	Isaiah Likely	33	52.3	-37%
Sep 10	George Kittle	12	77.3	-84%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

BUF offense

BUF offense: Share of BUF pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%6.4 yds	7%18.7 yds	7%16.8 yds
Short	29%7.2 yds	13%7.3 yds	37%5.8 yds

Share of BUF pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

LAR defense

LAR defense: Throws LAR faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%10.0 yds#16	4%16.3 yds#14	8%6.9 yds#30
Short	31%6.0 yds#11	20%4.6 yds#31	30%5.8 yds#12

Throws LAR faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%6.0 yds	12%13.0 yds	9%19.5 yds
Short	33%13.1 yds	19%9.0 yds	21%9.8 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of BUF targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Khalil Shakir WR	4	5.8	23	20.3%
2	DJ Moore WR	4	5.0	20	18.4%
3	Dalton Kincaid TE	4	4.8	19	17.1%
4	Keon Coleman WR	4	4.0	16	14.0%
5	Ty Johnson RB	2	3.0	6	11.0%
6	Josh Palmer WR	3	3.0	9	10.4%
7	James Cook RB	4	2.5	10	8.9%
8	Dawson Knox TE	4	1.5	6	5.3%
9	Jackson Hawes TE	1	1.0	1	3.8%
10	Ray Davis RB	3	0.3	1	1.1%

Game log · 34 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 51.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	vs NE	7	Under	47.5	35 (59%)
2026-09-27	3	vs LAC	38	Under	57.5	44 (67%)
2026-09-17	2	vs DET	95	Over	50.5	49 (66%)
2026-09-13	1	@ HOU	130	Over	38.5	42 (72%)
2026-01-17	20 (P)	@ DEN	83	Over	35.5	38 (49%)
2026-01-11	19 (P)	@ JAX	28	Under	30.5	28 (44%)
2026-01-04	18	vs NYJ	48	Under	—	10 (13%)
2025-12-21	16	@ CLE	0	Under	0.5	19 (38%)
2025-12-14	15	@ NE	34	Under	42.5	25 (36%)
2025-12-07	14	vs CIN	41	Under	35.5	22 (34%)
2025-11-09	10	@ MIA	37	Under	47.5	18 (26%)
2025-11-02	9	vs KC	101	Over	92.5	23 (35%)
2025-10-26	8	@ CAR	23	Under	25.5	14 (22%)
2025-10-05	5	vs NE	108	Over	115.5	37 (54%)
2025-09-28	4	vs NO	28	Under	0.5	22 (37%)
2025-09-18	3	vs MIA	66	Over	66.5	33 (55%)
2025-09-14	2	@ NYJ	37	Under	25.5	36 (48%)
2025-09-07	1	vs BAL	48	Under	40.5	43 (51%)
2025-01-26	21 (P)	@ KC	13	Under	—	33 (45%)
2025-01-19	20 (P)	vs BAL	11	Under	—	31 (51%)
2025-01-12	19 (P)	vs DEN	47	Under	—	29 (38%)
2024-12-29	17	vs NYJ	24	Under	—	31 (44%)
2024-12-22	16	vs NE	15	Under	—	20 (34%)
2024-12-15	15	@ DET	53	Over	—	34 (49%)
2024-11-10	10	@ IND	24	Under	—	18 (24%)
2024-11-03	9	vs MIA	32	Under	—	52 (79%)
2024-10-27	8	@ SEA	31	Under	—	41 (54%)
2024-10-20	7	vs TEN	52	Over	—	40 (73%)
2024-10-14	6	@ NYJ	51	Under	—	55 (80%)
2024-10-06	5	@ HOU	34	Under	—	38 (62%)
2024-09-29	4	@ BAL	47	Under	—	37 (63%)
2024-09-23	3	vs JAX	41	Under	—	34 (53%)
2024-09-12	2	@ MIA	33	Under	—	19 (42%)
2024-09-08	1	vs ARI	11	Under	—	52 (84%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 49.5PrizePicks 50.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 4m ago.