NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Daniel Jones QB

IND vs TEN · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

21.5 Completions O -125U -102

Hit rate · Last 20 50%10/20 Odds imply 52.4% Over

Season avg: 21.6
Graph avg: 20.6
Graph median: 21.55–31
Over the close: 56%10/18

2026 per game

Pass Yds204.2▼-34.3

Att35.2▲+5.7

Cmp%61.4%▼-6.6

Pass TD0.6▼-0.9

INT0.8▲+0.2

Rush Yds5.0▼-7.6

Snaps65.4▲+7.2

Snap %100.0%▲+8.5

21.5

2024

20

Nov 03
22

Nov 10
2025

22

Sep 07
23

Sep 14
18

Sep 21
24

Sep 28
20

Oct 05
22

Oct 12
23

Oct 19
21

Oct 26
31

Nov 02
19

Nov 09
19

Nov 23
14

Nov 30
5

Dec 07
2026

19

Sep 13
22

Sep 20
24

Sep 27
19

Oct 04
24

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 21.5

Home 50% 7/14 · avg 20.8
Away 64% 9/14 · avg 21.0
vs TEN 0% 0/2 · avg 19.5

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 19.5 65% 13/20
O 20.5 55% 11/20
O 21.5 Today 50% 10/20
O 22.5 30% 6/20
O 23.5 20% 4/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs TEN

What TEN allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds253.2#7
Yds/Att8.4#2
Cmp%71.1%#3
Pass TD1.6#12
Pass Att30.1#27

QBs vs TEN · 2026

Each main QB who faced TEN this season: completions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+0.4

Avg diff %+4%

Beat their average40% (2/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	C.J. Stroud	26	23.2	+12%
Oct 04	Lamar Jackson	15	17.7	-15%
Sep 27	Jameis Winston	14	20.7	-32%
Sep 20	Jalen Hurts	26	15.8	+65%
Sep 13	Geno Smith	19	20.8	-8%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

IND offense

IND offense: Share of IND pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%5.7 yds	4%15.9 yds	6%7.4 yds
Short	33%5.1 yds	17%7.1 yds	32%4.9 yds

Share of IND pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

TEN defense

TEN defense: Throws TEN faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%11.5 yds#13	4%20.0 yds#6	9%15.3 yds#4
Short	31%6.7 yds#7	16%9.8 yds#2	34%5.7 yds#14

Throws TEN faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%6.7 yds	4%17.9 yds	5%10.2 yds
Short	36%6.2 yds	15%6.1 yds	31%4.9 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of IND targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Tyler Warren TE	5	7.2	36	21.5%
2	Keenan Allen WR	4	7.2	29	21.0%
3	Josh Downs WR	5	6.8	34	20.6%
4	Ashton Dulin WR	2	3.5	7	12.1%
5	Alec Pierce WR	2	3.5	7	12.0%
6	Jonathan Taylor RB	5	3.8	19	11.8%
7	Laquon Treadwell WR	5	3.8	19	11.1%
8	Deion Burks WR	3	1.3	4	3.8%
9	Mo Alie-Cox TE	2	1.5	3	3.8%
10	Seth McGowan RB	5	0.8	4	2.5%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Completions	vs 21.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	@ PIT	24	Over	19.5	71 (100%)
2026-10-04	4	@ WAS	19	Under	20.5	66 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	vs HOU	24	Over	20.5	71 (100%)
2026-09-20	2	@ KC	22	Over	21.5	65 (100%)
2026-09-13	1	vs BAL	19	Under	22.5	54 (100%)
2025-12-07	14	@ JAX	5	Under	22.5	16 (23%)
2025-11-30	13	vs HOU	14	Under	18.5	54 (100%)
2025-11-23	12	@ KC	19	Under	20.5	51 (100%)
2025-11-09	10	vs ATL	19	Under	17.5	77 (100%)
2025-11-02	9	@ PIT	31	Over	22.5	78 (100%)
2025-10-26	8	vs TEN	21	Under	20.5	47 (89%)
2025-10-19	7	@ LAC	23	Over	20.5	60 (100%)
2025-10-12	6	vs ARI	22	Over	21.5	59 (100%)
2025-10-05	5	vs LV	20	Under	20.5	59 (89%)
2025-09-28	4	@ LA	24	Over	20.5	61 (100%)
2025-09-21	3	@ TEN	18	Under	19.5	50 (88%)
2025-09-14	2	vs DEN	23	Over	25.5	71 (100%)
2025-09-07	1	vs MIA	22	Over	20.5	73 (100%)
2024-11-10	10	@ CAR	22	Over	—	75 (100%)
2024-11-03	9	vs WAS	20	Under	—	65 (100%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 21.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 7m ago.