NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Josh Allen QB

BUF vs LV · Sun Oct 18 · 4:25 PM ET

20.5 Completions O -126U -101

Hit rate · Last 20 45%9/20 Odds imply 52.6% Over

Season avg: 18.2
Graph avg: 19.7
Graph median: 20.012–28
Over the close: 55%11/20

2026 per game

Pass Yds249.8▲+15.1

Att27.6▼-2.1

Cmp%65.9%▼-3.7

Pass TD1.4▼-0.2

INT0.8▲+0.1

Rush Yds47.8▲+10.1

Snaps64.2▼-1.0

Snap %100.0%▲+1.9

20.5

2025

16

Sep 28
22

Oct 05
15

Oct 13
12

Oct 26
23

Nov 02
28

Nov 09
19

Nov 16
24

Nov 20
15

Nov 30
22

Dec 07
19

Dec 14
12

Dec 21
23

Dec 28
28

Jan 11
25

Jan 17
2026

20

Sep 13
20

Sep 17
16

Sep 27
23

Oct 04
12

Oct 12
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 20.5

Home 52% 11/21 · avg 20.7
Away 43% 9/21 · avg 18.8
vs LV No games

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 18.5 65% 13/20
O 19.5 55% 11/20
O 20.5 Today 45% 9/20
O 21.5 45% 9/20
O 22.5 35% 7/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs LV

What LV allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds222.6#19
Yds/Att7.1#14
Cmp%67.0%#4
Pass TD1.5#17
Pass Att31.2#24

QBs vs LV · 2026

Each main QB who faced LV this season: completions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+0.1

Avg diff %+1%

Beat their average60% (3/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Drake Maye	26	18.2	+42%
Oct 04	Patrick Mahomes	15	22.3	-33%
Sep 27	Tyler Shough	29	27.0	+7%
Sep 20	Justin Herbert	15	17.5	-14%
Sep 13	Malik Willis	15	14.5	+3%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

BUF offense

BUF offense: Share of BUF pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%6.4 yds	7%17.5 yds	5%17.6 yds
Short	30%7.7 yds	13%8.6 yds	36%6.0 yds

Share of BUF pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

LV defense

LV defense: Throws LV faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	10%15.1 yds#4	4%12.0 yds#27	6%10.1 yds#21
Short	35%5.7 yds#18	15%6.6 yds#18	30%5.2 yds#20

Throws LV faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%4.5 yds	8%17.8 yds	7%14.8 yds
Short	28%7.7 yds	13%8.9 yds	38%5.8 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of BUF targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Khalil Shakir WR	5	5.2	26	19.5%
2	DJ Moore WR	4	5.0	20	18.4%
3	Dalton Kincaid TE	5	4.2	21	15.9%
4	Ty Johnson RB	3	3.3	10	14.8%
5	Keon Coleman WR	5	3.6	18	13.4%
6	Skyler Bell WR	1	2.0	2	11.1%
7	Josh Palmer WR	3	3.0	9	10.4%
8	James Cook RB	5	2.2	11	8.2%
9	Dawson Knox TE	5	1.8	9	7.6%
10	Ray Davis RB	4	0.5	2	2.2%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Completions	vs 20.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-12	5	@ LA	12	Under	21.5	64 (100%)
2026-10-04	4	vs NE	23	Over	19.5	59 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	vs LAC	16	Under	20.5	66 (100%)
2026-09-17	2	vs DET	20	Under	20.5	74 (100%)
2026-09-13	1	@ HOU	20	Under	19.5	58 (100%)
2026-01-17	20 (P)	@ DEN	25	Over	19.5	78 (100%)
2026-01-11	19 (P)	@ JAX	28	Over	28.5	63 (100%)
2025-12-28	17	vs PHI	23	Over	18.5	76 (100%)
2025-12-21	16	@ CLE	12	Under	10.5	50 (100%)
2025-12-14	15	@ NE	19	Under	20.5	70 (100%)
2025-12-07	14	vs CIN	22	Over	24.5	64 (100%)
2025-11-30	13	@ PIT	15	Under	13.5	74 (100%)
2025-11-20	12	@ HOU	24	Over	21.5	66 (100%)
2025-11-16	11	vs TB	19	Under	15.5	56 (100%)
2025-11-09	10	@ MIA	28	Over	21.5	65 (96%)
2025-11-02	9	vs KC	23	Over	21.5	66 (100%)
2025-10-26	8	@ CAR	12	Under	20.5	52 (83%)
2025-10-13	6	@ ATL	15	Under	20.5	57 (100%)
2025-10-05	5	vs NE	22	Over	22.5	68 (100%)
2025-09-28	4	vs NO	16	Under	14.5	59 (100%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 20.5Underdog 20.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 13m ago.