NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Patrick Mahomes QB

KC vs LAC · Sun Oct 18 · 4:25 PM ET

20.5 Completions O +102U -131

Hit rate · Last 20 60%12/20 Odds imply 46.6% Over

Season avg: 20.5
Graph avg: 21.8
Graph median: 22.014–32
Over the close: 33%6/18

2026 per game

Pass Yds259.2▲+3.0

Att32.0▼-3.9

Cmp%64.1%▲+1.3

Pass TD2.2▲+0.7

INT0.5▼-0.3

Rush Yds10.2▼-19.9

Snaps65.2▼-1.5

Snap %100.0%▲+2.6

20.5

2024

18

Jan 26
21

Feb 09
2025

24

Sep 05
16

Sep 14
22

Sep 21
25

Sep 28
29

Oct 06
22

Oct 12
26

Oct 19
25

Oct 27
15

Nov 02
29

Nov 16
29

Nov 23
23

Nov 27
14

Dec 07
16

Dec 14
2026

15

Sep 14
32

Sep 20
20

Sep 27
15

Oct 04
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 20.5

Home 60% 12/20 · avg 23.0
Away 65% 11/17 · avg 22.6
vs LAC 50% 2/4 · avg 20.8

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 18.5 65% 13/20
O 19.5 65% 13/20
O 20.5 Today 60% 12/20
O 21.5 55% 11/20
O 22.5 45% 9/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs LAC

What LAC allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds214.4#23
Yds/Att7.5#8
Cmp%62.9%#20
Pass TD1.2#24
Pass Att28.6#30

QBs vs LAC · 2026

Each main QB who faced LAC this season: completions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-3.2

Avg diff %-16%

Beat their average20% (1/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Bo Nix	16	19.6	-18%
Oct 04	Sam Darnold	13	19.2	-32%
Sep 27	Josh Allen	16	18.8	-15%
Sep 20	Kirk Cousins	19	23.2	-18%
Sep 13	Jacoby Brissett	27	26.2	+3%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

KC offense

KC offense: Share of KC pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	5%13.9 yds	5%10.5 yds	8%12.4 yds
Short	28%5.9 yds	17%4.9 yds	38%5.3 yds

Share of KC pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

LAC defense

LAC defense: Throws LAC faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%16.8 yds#1	3%12.0 yds#26	4%12.9 yds#9
Short	33%6.1 yds#10	17%6.6 yds#19	34%5.8 yds#13

Throws LAC faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%14.2 yds	6%13.7 yds	10%10.1 yds
Short	26%6.1 yds	17%5.5 yds	36%6.0 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of KC targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Rashee Rice WR	3	5.7	17	20.4%
2	Xavier Worthy WR	4	5.5	22	18.7%
3	Travis Kelce TE	4	5.5	22	17.3%
4	Kenneth Walker III RB	4	4.8	19	14.9%
5	Tyquan Thornton WR	4	3.8	15	12.9%
6	Noah Gray TE	4	2.0	8	7.6%
7	Emmett Johnson RB	4	1.2	5	4.1%
8	Jalen Royals WR	4	1.2	5	4.1%
9	Cyrus Allen WR	2	1.0	2	3.9%
10	Jake Briningstool TE	3	0.7	2	2.8%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Completions	vs 20.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	@ LV	15	Under	20.5	60 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	@ MIA	20	Under	21.5	52 (100%)
2026-09-20	2	vs IND	32	Over	20.5	80 (100%)
2026-09-14	1	vs DEN	15	Under	20.5	69 (100%)
2025-12-14	15	vs LAC	16	Under	16.5	56 (92%)
2025-12-07	14	vs HOU	14	Under	17.5	64 (100%)
2025-11-27	13	@ DAL	23	Over	24.5	66 (100%)
2025-11-23	12	vs IND	29	Over	23.5	96 (100%)
2025-11-16	11	@ DEN	29	Over	30.5	70 (100%)
2025-11-02	9	@ BUF	15	Under	21.5	60 (100%)
2025-10-27	8	vs WAS	25	Over	23.5	69 (100%)
2025-10-19	7	vs LV	26	Over	22.5	65 (80%)
2025-10-12	6	vs DET	22	Over	24.5	64 (100%)
2025-10-06	5	@ JAX	29	Over	28.5	64 (100%)
2025-09-28	4	vs BAL	25	Over	26.5	67 (92%)
2025-09-21	3	@ NYG	22	Over	22.5	72 (100%)
2025-09-14	2	vs PHI	16	Under	23.5	60 (100%)
2025-09-05	1	@ LAC	24	Over	23.5	61 (100%)
2025-02-09	22 (P)	@ PHI	21	Over	—	56 (100%)
2025-01-26	21 (P)	vs BUF	18	Under	—	66 (100%)

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 8m ago.