NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Geno Smith QB

NYJ vs NE · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

20.5 Completions O -110U -116

Hit rate · Last 10 30%3/10 Odds imply 49.4% Over

Season avg: 20.4
Graph avg: 19.9
Graph median: 18.58–31
Over the close: 30%3/10

2026 per game

Pass Yds216.8▲+15.1

Att29.4▼-0.5

Cmp%69.4%▲+2.0

Pass TD1.2▼-0.1

INT0.0▼-1.1

Rush Yds8.6▲+1.3

Snaps61.8▲+4.3

Snap %100.0%▲+3.5

20.5

2025

30

Nov 23
18

Nov 30
13

Dec 07
16

Dec 21
20

Dec 28
2026

19

Sep 13
27

Sep 20
31

Sep 27
8

Oct 04
17

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 20.5

Home 63% 12/19 · avg 22.6
Away 39% 7/18 · avg 21.2
vs NE 100% 2/2 · avg 28.5

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 18.5 50% 5/10
O 19.5 40% 4/10
O 20.5 Today 30% 3/10
O 21.5 30% 3/10
O 22.5 30% 3/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs NE

What NE allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds195.6#29
Yds/Att5.9#31
Cmp%59.3%#29
Pass TD1.0#28
Pass Att33.4#10

QBs vs NE · 2026

Each main QB who faced NE this season: completions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-3.7

Avg diff %-15%

Beat their average40% (2/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Kirk Cousins	19	23.2	-18%
Oct 04	Josh Allen	23	17.0	+35%
Sep 27	Trevor Lawrence	19	19.2	-1%
Sep 20	Aaron Rodgers	23	21.8	+6%
Sep 09	Sam Darnold	1	22.2	-96%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

NYJ offense

NYJ offense: Share of NYJ pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%9.0 yds	2%21.2 yds	6%12.7 yds
Short	37%5.3 yds	10%4.5 yds	40%5.0 yds

Share of NYJ pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

NE defense

NE defense: Throws NE faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%6.6 yds#29	4%10.5 yds#31	4%10.0 yds#22
Short	32%5.2 yds#27	17%7.7 yds#12	36%4.4 yds#31

Throws NE faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%12.8 yds	3%15.4 yds	6%12.2 yds
Short	31%5.9 yds	16%7.4 yds	37%5.4 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of NYJ targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Garrett Wilson WR	5	8.4	42	30.1%
2	Adonai Mitchell WR	2	7.5	15	23.2%
3	Kenyon Sadiq TE	5	4.2	21	16.1%
4	Mason Taylor TE	2	3.0	6	11.7%
5	Isaiah Williams WR	5	2.8	14	10.7%
6	Breece Hall RB	3	3.3	10	10.3%
7	Tim Patrick WR	1	3.0	3	10.3%
8	Braelon Allen RB	5	2.2	11	8.5%
9	Jeremy Ruckert TE	3	2.7	8	7.9%
10	Sterling Shepard WR	2	1.0	2	4.7%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Completions	vs 20.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	vs CLE	17	Under	19.5	70 (100%)
2026-10-04	4	@ CHI	8	Under	21.5	32 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	@ DET	31	Over	21.5	66 (100%)
2026-09-20	2	vs GB	27	Over	20.5	74 (100%)
2026-09-13	1	@ TEN	19	Under	19.5	67 (100%)
2025-12-28	17	vs NYG	20	Under	27.5	53 (90%)
2025-12-21	16	@ HOU	16	Under	19.5	54 (100%)
2025-12-07	14	vs DEN	13	Under	19.5	37 (74%)
2025-11-30	13	@ LAC	18	Under	20.5	48 (100%)
2025-11-23	12	vs CLE	30	Over	26.5	79 (100%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 20.5Underdog 20.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 3m ago.