NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Trevor Lawrence QB

JAX vs HOU · Sun Oct 18 · 9:30 AM ET

19.5 Completions O -106U -121

Hit rate · All 46%15/33 Odds imply 48.4% Over

Season avg: 19.2
Graph avg: 19.0
Graph median: 19.04–28
Over the close: 39%9/23

2026 per game

Pass Yds234.8▲+0.7

Att28.6▼-4.2

Cmp%67.1%▲+6.3

Pass TD2.0▲+0.2

INT0.6▼-0.2

Rush Yds11.8▼-9.9

Snaps60.2▼-4.8

Snap %96.6%▼-0.3

19.5

2024

12

Sep 08
14

Sep 15
21

Sep 23
18

Sep 29
28

Oct 06
23

Oct 13
15

Oct 20
21

Oct 27
16

Nov 03
4

Dec 01
2025

19

Sep 07
24

Sep 14
20

Sep 21
21

Sep 28
18

Oct 06
27

Oct 12
23

Oct 19
23

Nov 02
13

Nov 09
14

Nov 16
18

Nov 23
16

Nov 30
17

Dec 07
20

Dec 14
23

Dec 21
23

Dec 28
22

Jan 04
18

Jan 11
2026

18

Sep 13
17

Sep 20
19

Sep 27
18

Oct 04
24

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 19.5

Home 44% 8/18 · avg 18.9
Away 47% 7/15 · avg 19.1
vs HOU 25% 1/4 · avg 13.8

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 17.5 70% 23/33
O 18.5 52% 17/33
O 19.5 Today 46% 15/33
O 20.5 39% 13/33
O 21.5 30% 10/33

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs HOU

What HOU allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds231.5#14
Yds/Att7.1#16
Cmp%64.5%#13
Pass TD1.4#18
Pass Att32.7#13

QBs vs HOU · 2026

Each main QB who faced HOU this season: completions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+1.7

Avg diff %+10%

Beat their average80% (4/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Cam Ward	23	18.8	+23%
Oct 04	Dak Prescott	32	24.2	+32%
Sep 27	Daniel Jones	24	21.0	+14%
Sep 20	Joe Burrow	20	28.8	-30%
Sep 13	Josh Allen	20	17.8	+13%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

JAX offense

JAX offense: Share of JAX pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	10%9.4 yds	4%18.1 yds	7%11.5 yds
Short	34%6.8 yds	16%6.6 yds	28%7.9 yds

Share of JAX pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

HOU defense

HOU defense: Throws HOU faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	10%12.6 yds#11	3%22.5 yds#2	7%13.0 yds#7
Short	28%5.1 yds#28	19%6.9 yds#17	33%4.5 yds#29

Throws HOU faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	10%9.4 yds	5%18.1 yds	7%11.5 yds
Short	34%6.8 yds	17%6.6 yds	28%7.9 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of JAX targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Parker Washington WR	5	7.0	35	25.3%
2	Brenton Strange TE	5	5.2	26	19.2%
3	Jakobi Meyers WR	5	3.6	18	13.6%
4	Brian Thomas Jr. WR	5	3.4	17	12.6%
5	Josh Cameron WR	5	2.4	12	8.3%
6	Bhayshul Tuten RB	5	2.0	10	7.2%
7	Nate Boerkircher TE	4	1.5	6	5.6%
8	LeQuint Allen Jr. RB	4	1.2	5	4.1%
9	Ameer Abdullah RB	5	0.6	3	2.4%
10	Quintin Morris TE	4	0.5	2	2.1%

Game log · 33 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Completions	vs 19.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	vs PHI	24	Over	19.5	72 (100%)
2026-10-04	4	@ CIN	18	Under	21.5	61 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	vs NE	19	Under	20.5	59 (95%)
2026-09-20	2	@ DEN	17	Under	19.5	59 (100%)
2026-09-13	1	vs CLE	18	Under	20.5	50 (88%)
2026-01-11	19 (P)	vs BUF	18	Under	19.5	56 (100%)
2026-01-04	18	vs TEN	22	Over	20.5	50 (82%)
2025-12-28	17	@ IND	23	Over	24.5	69 (100%)
2025-12-21	16	@ DEN	23	Over	19.5	70 (100%)
2025-12-14	15	vs NYJ	20	Over	21.5	54 (87%)
2025-12-07	14	vs IND	17	Under	15.5	58 (91%)
2025-11-30	13	@ TEN	16	Under	19.5	60 (95%)
2025-11-23	12	@ ARI	18	Under	14.5	62 (100%)
2025-11-16	11	vs LAC	14	Under	14.5	63 (89%)
2025-11-09	10	@ HOU	13	Under	19.5	62 (100%)
2025-11-02	9	@ LV	23	Over	21.5	80 (100%)
2025-10-19	7	vs LA	23	Over	23.5	77 (100%)
2025-10-12	6	vs SEA	27	Over	30.5	76 (100%)
2025-10-06	5	vs KC	18	Under	17.5	58 (100%)
2025-09-28	4	@ SF	21	Over	20.5	68 (100%)
2025-09-21	3	vs HOU	20	Over	22.5	70 (100%)
2025-09-14	2	@ CIN	24	Over	22.5	71 (100%)
2025-09-07	1	vs CAR	19	Under	22.5	66 (100%)
2024-12-01	13	vs HOU	4	Under	—	19 (27%)
2024-11-03	9	@ PHI	16	Under	—	54 (100%)
2024-10-27	8	vs GB	21	Over	—	57 (100%)
2024-10-20	7	vs NE	15	Under	—	61 (100%)
2024-10-13	6	@ CHI	23	Over	—	59 (95%)
2024-10-06	5	vs IND	28	Over	—	58 (100%)
2024-09-29	4	@ HOU	18	Under	—	58 (100%)
2024-09-23	3	@ BUF	21	Over	—	57 (80%)
2024-09-15	2	vs CLE	14	Under	—	60 (100%)
2024-09-08	1	@ MIA	12	Under	—	53 (100%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 19.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 7m ago.