NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Cam Ward QB

TEN vs IND · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

19.5 Completions O -135U +100

Hit rate · All 59%13/22 Odds imply 53.5% Over

Season avg: 19.6
Graph avg: 19.1
Graph median: 21.03–28
Over the close: 75%3/4

2026 per game

Pass Yds179.2▼-7.2

Att31.0▼-0.8

Cmp%63.2%▲+3.4

Pass TD0.6▼-0.3

INT0.6▲+0.2

Rush Yds11.8▲+2.4

Snaps58.0▼-1.2

Snap %100.0%▲+5.4

19.5

2025

12

Sep 07
19

Sep 14
23

Sep 21
10

Sep 28
21

Oct 05
26

Oct 12
25

Oct 19
22

Oct 26
12

Nov 02
24

Nov 16
28

Nov 23
24

Nov 30
14

Dec 07
18

Dec 14
21

Dec 21
21

Dec 28
3

Jan 04
2026

19

Sep 13
13

Sep 20
23

Sep 27
20

Oct 04
23

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 19.5

Home 67% 8/12 · avg 21.0
Away 50% 5/10 · avg 16.9
vs IND 100% 2/2 · avg 22.5

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 17.5 73% 16/22
O 18.5 68% 15/22
O 19.5 Today 59% 13/22
O 20.5 54% 12/22
O 21.5 41% 9/22

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs IND

What IND allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds262.1#3
Yds/Att7.8#7
Cmp%62.3%#22
Pass TD1.7#8
Pass Att33.7#9

QBs vs IND · 2026

Each main QB who faced IND this season: completions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-1.3

Avg diff %-5%

Beat their average20% (1/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Aaron Rodgers	22	22.0	+0%
Oct 04	Marcus Mariota	3	15.0	-80%
Sep 27	C.J. Stroud	16	25.8	-38%
Sep 20	Patrick Mahomes	32	16.7	+92%
Sep 13	Lamar Jackson	17	17.0	+0%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

TEN offense

TEN offense: Share of TEN pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%5.7 yds	2%16.8 yds	7%14.4 yds
Short	34%5.3 yds	10%4.1 yds	40%4.4 yds

Share of TEN pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

IND defense

IND defense: Throws IND faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%13.6 yds#8	3%12.3 yds#24	10%12.0 yds#12
Short	28%6.1 yds#11	21%8.8 yds#4	32%5.9 yds#11

Throws IND faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%6.6 yds	2%16.8 yds	7%14.1 yds
Short	31%5.9 yds	11%4.2 yds	41%4.5 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of TEN targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Carnell Tate WR	5	7.4	37	26.7%
2	Wan'Dale Robinson WR	5	6.0	30	19.3%
3	Tyjae Spears RB	5	3.2	16	11.1%
4	Gunnar Helm TE	5	2.6	13	9.5%
5	Elic Ayomanor WR	5	2.4	12	9.2%
6	Tony Pollard RB	5	2.4	12	8.3%
7	Calvin Ridley WR	4	2.0	8	7.6%
8	Daniel Bellinger TE	5	1.4	7	4.9%
9	Chimere Dike WR	5	1.4	7	4.3%
10	Kylen Granson TE	1	1.0	1	2.9%

Game log · 22 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Completions	vs 19.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	vs HOU	23	Over	19.5	63 (100%)
2026-10-04	4	@ BAL	20	Over	19.5	64 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	@ NYG	23	Over	17.5	60 (100%)
2026-09-20	2	vs PHI	13	Under	18.5	53 (100%)
2026-09-13	1	vs NYJ	19	Under	—	50 (100%)
2026-01-04	18	@ JAX	3	Under	—	5 (9%)
2025-12-28	17	vs NO	21	Over	—	74 (100%)
2025-12-21	16	vs KC	21	Over	—	73 (100%)
2025-12-14	15	@ SF	18	Under	—	53 (100%)
2025-12-07	14	@ CLE	14	Under	—	66 (100%)
2025-11-30	13	vs JAX	24	Over	—	59 (100%)
2025-11-23	12	vs SEA	28	Over	—	76 (100%)
2025-11-16	11	vs HOU	24	Over	—	59 (100%)
2025-11-02	9	vs LAC	12	Under	—	47 (100%)
2025-10-26	8	@ IND	22	Over	—	71 (100%)
2025-10-19	7	vs NE	25	Over	—	53 (100%)
2025-10-12	6	@ LV	26	Over	—	61 (100%)
2025-10-05	5	@ ARI	21	Over	—	67 (100%)
2025-09-28	4	@ HOU	10	Under	—	50 (100%)
2025-09-21	3	vs IND	23	Over	—	70 (100%)
2025-09-14	2	vs LA	19	Under	—	66 (100%)
2025-09-07	1	@ DEN	12	Under	—	57 (100%)

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: BetMGM, updated 10m ago.