NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Jameis Winston QB

NYG vs NO · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

19.5 Completions O -112U -114

Hit rate · Last 20 33%6/18 Odds imply 49.8% Over

Season avg: 19.0
Graph avg: 16.3
Graph median: 18.00–34
Over the close: 40%2/5

2026 per game

Pass Yds201.2▲+12.2

Att33.0▲+11.0

Cmp%57.6%▲+1.5

Pass TD1.5▲+0.8

INT0.8▲+0.1

Rush Yds10.5▲+2.8

Snaps66.5▲+14.5

Snap %95.5%▲+27.8

19.5

2024

0

Sep 15
0

Sep 22
1

Oct 06
5

Oct 20
27

Oct 27
26

Nov 03
30

Nov 17
18

Nov 21
34

Dec 02
24

Dec 08
16

Dec 15
2025

19

Nov 16
18

Nov 23
0

Dec 14
2026

11

Sep 21
14

Sep 27
18

Oct 04
33

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 19.5

Home 20% 2/10 · avg 14.3
Away 50% 4/8 · avg 18.9
vs NO 100% 1/1 · avg 30.0

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 17.5 56% 10/18
O 18.5 39% 7/18
O 19.5 Today 33% 6/18
O 20.5 33% 6/18
O 21.5 33% 6/18

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs NO

What NO allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds204.5#27
Yds/Att6.5#25
Cmp%63.1%#19
Pass TD1.3#22
Pass Att31.4#22

QBs vs NO · 2026

Each main QB who faced NO this season: completions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+2.2

Avg diff %+15%

Beat their average60% (3/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Kyler Murray	24	15.0	+60%
Oct 05	Michael Penix Jr.	15	18.5	-19%
Sep 27	Kirk Cousins	22	22.5	-2%
Sep 20	Lamar Jackson	21	15.7	+34%
Sep 13	Jared Goff	26	25.5	+2%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

NYG offense

NYG offense: Share of NYG pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%9.2 yds	4%10.9 yds	8%6.3 yds
Short	33%5.8 yds	22%6.1 yds	26%5.5 yds

Share of NYG pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

NO defense

NO defense: Throws NO faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%9.7 yds#21	2%15.0 yds#16	8%11.9 yds#13
Short	32%6.6 yds#8	12%5.9 yds#25	38%4.6 yds#28

Throws NO faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 7 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%17.8 yds	4%7.8 yds	10%7.8 yds
Short	30%5.4 yds	16%6.1 yds	31%5.6 yds

Last 7 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of NYG targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Isaiah Likely TE	5	9.6	48	29.8%
2	Malik Nabers WR	5	9.2	46	26.9%
3	Malachi Fields WR	5	3.4	17	11.3%
4	Darnell Mooney WR	5	3.4	17	10.2%
5	Devin Singletary RB	2	2.5	5	8.5%
6	Cam Skattebo RB	5	2.4	12	8.2%
7	Theo Johnson TE	4	2.2	9	6.3%
8	Patrick Ricard RB	2	1.5	3	5.2%
9	Odell Beckham Jr. WR	1	1.0	1	4.8%
10	Tyrone Tracy Jr. RB	5	0.6	3	1.2%

Game log · 18 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Completions	vs 19.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	@ WAS	33	Over	18.5	84 (94%)
2026-10-04	4	vs ARI	18	Under	18.5	67 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	vs TEN	14	Under	17.5	64 (100%)
2026-09-21	2	@ LA	11	Under	13.5	51 (88%)
2025-12-14	15	vs WAS	0	Under	—	2 (3%)
2025-11-23	12	@ DET	18	Under	17.5	82 (100%)
2025-11-16	11	vs GB	19	Under	—	72 (100%)
2024-12-15	15	vs KC	16	Under	—	48 (77%)
2024-12-08	14	@ PIT	24	Over	—	72 (100%)
2024-12-02	13	@ DEN	34	Over	—	86 (100%)
2024-11-21	12	vs PIT	18	Under	—	57 (98%)
2024-11-17	11	@ NO	30	Over	—	69 (95%)
2024-11-03	9	vs LAC	26	Over	—	79 (100%)
2024-10-27	8	vs BAL	27	Over	—	69 (100%)
2024-10-20	7	vs CIN	5	Under	—	13 (15%)
2024-10-06	5	@ WAS	1	Under	—	5 (8%)
2024-09-22	3	vs NYG	0	Under	—	2 (3%)
2024-09-15	2	@ JAX	0	Under	—	3 (4%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 19.5Underdog 19.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 7m ago.