NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Brock Purdy QB

SF vs WAS · Mon Oct 19 · 8:15 PM ET

21.5 Completions O -103U -124

Hit rate · All 39%12/31 Odds imply 47.8% Over

Season avg: 19.6
Graph avg: 20.3
Graph median: 19.011–28
Over the close: 44%7/16

2026 per game

Pass Yds239.2▲+5.7

Att28.4▼-2.7

Cmp%69.0%▲+1.8

Pass TD2.6▲+0.6

INT0.4▼-0.8

Rush Yds25.6▲+6.7

Snaps57.8▼-4.6

Snap %97.0%▲+0.2

21.5

2024

19

Sep 09
28

Sep 15
22

Sep 22
15

Sep 29
19

Oct 06
18

Oct 10
17

Oct 20
18

Oct 27
25

Nov 10
21

Nov 17
11

Dec 01
20

Dec 08
14

Dec 12
26

Dec 22
27

Dec 30
2025

26

Sep 07
22

Sep 28
19

Nov 16
23

Nov 24
16

Nov 30
23

Dec 14
25

Dec 22
24

Dec 28
19

Jan 03
18

Jan 11
15

Jan 17
2026

25

Sep 10
20

Sep 20
15

Sep 27
19

Oct 04
19

Oct 11
?

Oct 20

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 21.5

Home 29% 5/17 · avg 19.7
Away 50% 7/14 · avg 20.9
vs WAS No games

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 19.5 48% 15/31
O 20.5 42% 13/31
O 21.5 Today 39% 12/31
O 22.5 32% 10/31
O 23.5 26% 8/31

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs WAS

What WAS allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds247.2#8
Yds/Att6.9#19
Cmp%62.1%#23
Pass TD2.4#2
Pass Att35.6#5

QBs vs WAS · 2026

Each main QB who faced WAS this season: completions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+5.4

Avg diff %+40%

Beat their average60% (3/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Jameis Winston	33	14.3	+130%
Oct 04	Daniel Jones	19	22.2	-15%
Sep 27	Sam Darnold	31	14.8	+110%
Sep 20	Dak Prescott	26	25.8	+1%
Sep 13	Jalen Hurts	14	18.8	-25%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

SF offense

SF offense: Share of SF pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%8.3 yds	5%29.4 yds	5%11.2 yds
Short	38%6.7 yds	20%6.6 yds	26%5.6 yds

Share of SF pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

WAS defense

WAS defense: Throws WAS faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%4.0 yds#31	4%18.8 yds#7	8%12.8 yds#10
Short	30%5.3 yds#24	16%8.9 yds#3	34%5.2 yds#22

Throws WAS faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%8.8 yds	6%29.4 yds	4%9.8 yds
Short	38%6.7 yds	20%6.8 yds	26%5.6 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of SF targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Mike Evans WR	5	6.8	34	24.5%
2	George Kittle TE	5	5.6	28	20.7%
3	Christian McCaffrey RB	5	5.0	25	18.0%
4	Deebo Samuel Sr. WR	5	4.0	20	14.3%
5	Demarcus Robinson WR	2	3.0	6	11.6%
6	Kyle Juszczyk FB	3	2.0	6	8.0%
7	Jordan Watkins WR	1	2.0	2	7.7%
8	Brandin Cooks WR	2	1.5	3	5.4%
9	Jacob Cowing WR	5	1.0	5	3.7%
10	Luke Farrell TE	5	0.8	4	2.7%

Game log · 31 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Completions	vs 21.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	@ SEA	19	Under	21.5	60 (100%)
2026-10-04	4	vs DEN	19	Under	20.5	66 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	vs ARI	15	Under	21.5	54 (100%)
2026-09-20	2	vs MIA	20	Under	19.5	44 (85%)
2026-09-10	1	@ LA	25	Over	21.5	65 (100%)
2026-01-17	20 (P)	@ SEA	15	Under	22.5	51 (85%)
2026-01-11	19 (P)	@ PHI	18	Under	17.5	59 (100%)
2026-01-03	18	vs SEA	19	Under	22.5	42 (100%)
2025-12-28	17	vs CHI	24	Over	23.5	72 (100%)
2025-12-22	16	@ IND	25	Over	23.5	63 (95%)
2025-12-14	15	vs TEN	23	Over	22.5	74 (100%)
2025-11-30	13	@ CLE	16	Under	17.5	63 (94%)
2025-11-24	12	vs CAR	23	Over	23.5	70 (100%)
2025-11-16	11	@ ARI	19	Under	22.5	50 (91%)
2025-09-28	4	vs JAX	22	Over	24.5	66 (100%)
2025-09-07	1	@ SEA	26	Over	23.5	76 (100%)
2024-12-30	17	vs DET	27	Over	—	59 (92%)
2024-12-22	16	@ MIA	26	Over	—	64 (100%)
2024-12-12	15	vs LA	14	Under	—	54 (100%)
2024-12-08	14	vs CHI	20	Under	—	57 (93%)
2024-12-01	13	@ BUF	11	Under	—	48 (100%)
2024-11-17	11	vs SEA	21	Under	—	63 (100%)
2024-11-10	10	@ TB	25	Over	—	64 (100%)
2024-10-27	8	vs DAL	18	Under	—	68 (100%)
2024-10-20	7	vs KC	17	Under	—	63 (100%)
2024-10-10	6	@ SEA	18	Under	—	65 (100%)
2024-10-06	5	vs ARI	19	Under	—	64 (100%)
2024-09-29	4	vs NE	15	Under	—	63 (100%)
2024-09-22	3	@ LA	22	Over	—	71 (100%)
2024-09-15	2	@ MIN	28	Over	—	70 (100%)
2024-09-09	1	vs NYJ	19	Under	—	71 (99%)

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 15m ago.