NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Kyler Murray QB

MIN vs IND · Sun Oct 25 · 1:00 PM ET

19.5 Completions

Hit rate · Last 20 75%15/20 Odds imply —

Season avg: 17.2
Graph avg: 21.8
Graph median: 23.03–33
Over the close: 44%4/9

2026 per game

Pass Yds165.5▼-26.9

Att25.2▼-7.0

Cmp%68.3%-0.0

Pass TD0.5▼-0.7

INT0.5▼-0.1

Rush Yds23.2▼-11.4

Snaps54.8▼-8.9

Snap %79.2%▼-19.5

19.5

2024

14

Oct 21
26

Oct 27
13

Nov 03
22

Nov 10
24

Nov 24
31

Dec 01
25

Dec 08
23

Dec 15
20

Dec 22
33

Dec 28
25

Jan 05
2025

21

Sep 07
17

Sep 14
22

Sep 21
27

Sep 25
23

Oct 05
2026

3

Sep 13
15

Sep 27
27

Oct 04
24

Oct 11
?

Oct 25

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 19.5

Home 57% 8/14 · avg 19.5
Away 83% 10/12 · avg 23.2
vs IND No games

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 17.5 75% 15/20
O 18.5 75% 15/20
O 19.5 Today 75% 15/20
O 20.5 70% 14/20
O 21.5 65% 13/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs IND

What IND allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds247.6#7
Yds/Att7.5#7
Cmp%61.9%#23
Pass TD1.6#12
Pass Att32.8#19

QBs vs IND · 2026

Each main QB who faced IND this season: completions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-3.1

Avg diff %-16%

Beat their average17% (1/6)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 18	Cam Ward	11	19.6	-44%
Oct 11	Aaron Rodgers	22	24.2	-9%
Oct 04	Marcus Mariota	3	15.0	-80%
Sep 27	C.J. Stroud	16	25.4	-37%
Sep 20	Patrick Mahomes	32	18.2	+75%
Sep 13	Lamar Jackson	17	17.0	+0%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

MIN offense

MIN offense: Share of MIN pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	11%15.9 yds	2%11.2 yds	8%7.5 yds
Short	27%4.8 yds	17%7.4 yds	35%5.5 yds

Share of MIN pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

IND defense

IND defense: Throws IND faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	5%12.2 yds#11	3%13.7 yds#22	10%11.7 yds#12
Short	30%6.0 yds#12	20%9.2 yds#1	33%5.8 yds#12

Throws IND faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 9 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%12.0 yds	3%7.6 yds	8%10.3 yds
Short	32%4.6 yds	18%7.7 yds	31%4.4 yds

Last 9 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of MIN targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Justin Jefferson WR	4	6.0	24	25.7%
2	Jordan Addison WR	4	5.5	22	22.3%
3	T.J. Hockenson TE	5	5.4	27	20.3%
4	Aaron Jones RB	5	3.6	18	12.6%
5	Gavin Bartholomew TE	2	3.5	7	11.9%
6	Josh Oliver TE	3	1.7	5	7.6%
7	Tai Felton WR	3	2.0	6	7.1%
8	Myles Price WR	5	1.4	7	5.0%
9	Jauan Jennings WR	4	1.2	5	4.7%
10	Ben Yurosek TE	1	1.0	1	3.4%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Completions	vs 19.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	@ NO	24	Over	20.5	71 (100%)
2026-10-04	4	vs MIA	27	Over	19.5	78 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	@ TB	15	Under	19.5	59 (100%)
2026-09-13	1	vs GB	3	Under	21.5	11 (17%)
2025-10-05	5	vs TEN	23	Over	21.5	65 (96%)
2025-09-25	4	vs SEA	27	Over	20.5	67 (100%)
2025-09-21	3	@ SF	22	Over	24.5	66 (100%)
2025-09-14	2	vs CAR	17	Under	20.5	54 (98%)
2025-09-07	1	@ NO	21	Over	21.5	66 (100%)
2025-01-05	18	vs SF	25	Over	—	60 (92%)
2024-12-28	17	@ LA	33	Over	—	79 (100%)
2024-12-22	16	@ CAR	20	Over	—	70 (100%)
2024-12-15	15	vs NE	23	Over	—	63 (90%)
2024-12-08	14	vs SEA	25	Over	—	71 (100%)
2024-12-01	13	@ MIN	31	Over	—	82 (100%)
2024-11-24	12	@ SEA	24	Over	—	58 (100%)
2024-11-10	10	vs NYJ	22	Over	—	52 (88%)
2024-11-03	9	vs CHI	13	Under	—	55 (95%)
2024-10-27	8	@ MIA	26	Over	—	66 (100%)
2024-10-21	7	vs LAC	14	Under	—	54 (95%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 19.5Underdog 19.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: PrizePicks, updated 6m ago.