NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Aaron Rodgers QB

PIT vs TB · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

21.5 Completions O -121U -106

Hit rate · All 59%23/39 Odds imply 51.6% Over

Season avg: 22.0
Graph avg: 21.1
Graph median: 22.09–31
Over the close: 62%10/16

2026 per game

Pass Yds246.8▲+42.8

Att36.8▲+5.6

Cmp%59.8%▼-5.0

Pass TD2.0▲+0.6

INT0.8▲+0.3

Rush Yds3.6+0.0

Snaps65.2▲+8.2

Snap %98.6%▲+3.3

21.5

2024

13

Sep 09
18

Sep 15
27

Sep 19
24

Sep 29
29

Oct 06
23

Oct 14
24

Oct 20
17

Oct 27
22

Oct 31
22

Nov 10
22

Nov 17
21

Dec 01
27

Dec 08
16

Dec 15
28

Dec 22
12

Dec 29
23

Jan 05
2025

22

Sep 07
18

Sep 14
16

Sep 21
18

Sep 28
21

Oct 12
23

Oct 16
24

Oct 26
25

Nov 02
16

Nov 09
9

Nov 16
10

Nov 30
23

Dec 07
23

Dec 15
27

Dec 21
21

Dec 28
31

Jan 04
17

Jan 12
2026

24

Sep 13
23

Sep 20
19

Sep 27
22

Oct 01
22

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 21.5

Home 62% 13/21 · avg 21.5
Away 56% 10/18 · avg 20.6
vs TB No games

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 19.5 67% 26/39
O 20.5 67% 26/39
O 21.5 Today 59% 23/39
O 22.5 44% 17/39
O 23.5 28% 11/39

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs TB

What TB allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds231.9#13
Yds/Att7.3#12
Cmp%66.5%#6
Pass TD1.6#13
Pass Att31.9#16

QBs vs TB · 2026

Each main QB who faced TB this season: completions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-0.4

Avg diff %+0%

Beat their average20% (1/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 08	Dak Prescott	24	26.2	-9%
Oct 04	Jordan Love	22	22.5	-2%
Sep 27	Kyler Murray	15	18.0	-17%
Sep 20	Deshaun Watson	24	17.8	+35%
Sep 13	Joe Burrow	25	27.5	-9%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

PIT offense

PIT offense: Share of PIT pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%7.0 yds	4%15.5 yds	9%5.6 yds
Short	30%5.1 yds	18%8.3 yds	32%5.2 yds

Share of PIT pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

TB defense

TB defense: Throws TB faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%9.7 yds#20	5%12.7 yds#22	6%9.3 yds#24
Short	34%7.0 yds#4	16%7.7 yds#13	32%5.8 yds#12

Throws TB faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%7.0 yds	4%15.5 yds	9%5.6 yds
Short	29%5.2 yds	18%8.3 yds	32%5.3 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of PIT targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	DK Metcalf WR	5	7.4	37	20.8%
2	Pat Freiermuth TE	5	5.2	26	15.2%
3	Jaylen Warren RB	5	5.2	26	15.1%
4	Germie Bernard WR	4	5.0	20	15.0%
5	Roman Wilson WR	5	5.0	25	14.1%
6	Michael Pittman WR	3	4.0	12	11.5%
7	Rico Dowdle RB	2	3.5	7	9.5%
8	Darnell Washington TE	5	3.2	16	9.3%
9	Ben Skowronek WR	3	1.3	4	3.7%
10	Robert Tonyan TE	1	1.0	1	3.2%

Game log · 39 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Completions	vs 21.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	vs IND	22	Over	20.5	58 (97%)
2026-10-01	4	@ CLE	22	Over	20.5	72 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	vs CIN	19	Under	22.5	62 (100%)
2026-09-20	2	@ NE	23	Over	21.5	67 (96%)
2026-09-13	1	vs ATL	24	Over	20.5	67 (100%)
2026-01-12	19 (P)	vs HOU	17	Under	21.5	51 (89%)
2026-01-04	18	vs BAL	31	Over	28.5	75 (100%)
2025-12-28	17	@ CLE	21	Under	19.5	66 (100%)
2025-12-21	16	@ DET	27	Over	26.5	74 (100%)
2025-12-15	15	vs MIA	23	Over	23.5	66 (100%)
2025-12-07	14	@ BAL	23	Over	19.5	52 (100%)
2025-11-30	13	vs BUF	10	Under	13.5	36 (84%)
2025-11-16	11	vs CIN	9	Under	22.5	37 (57%)
2025-11-09	10	@ LAC	16	Under	22.5	52 (100%)
2025-11-02	9	vs IND	25	Over	21.5	62 (100%)
2025-10-26	8	vs GB	24	Over	—	63 (100%)
2025-10-16	7	@ CIN	23	Over	21.5	57 (100%)
2025-10-12	6	vs CLE	21	Under	—	56 (95%)
2025-09-28	4	vs MIN	18	Under	—	53 (100%)
2025-09-21	3	@ NE	16	Under	—	54 (100%)
2025-09-14	2	vs SEA	18	Under	—	59 (95%)
2025-09-07	1	@ NYJ	22	Over	—	56 (100%)
2025-01-05	18	vs MIA	23	Over	—	64 (100%)
2024-12-29	17	@ BUF	12	Under	—	40 (63%)
2024-12-22	16	vs LA	28	Over	—	69 (100%)
2024-12-15	15	@ JAX	16	Under	—	58 (100%)
2024-12-08	14	@ MIA	27	Over	—	68 (100%)
2024-12-01	13	vs SEA	21	Under	—	68 (100%)
2024-11-17	11	vs IND	22	Over	—	51 (100%)
2024-11-10	10	@ ARI	22	Over	—	58 (100%)
2024-10-31	9	vs HOU	22	Over	—	58 (100%)
2024-10-27	8	@ NE	17	Under	—	62 (100%)
2024-10-20	7	@ PIT	24	Over	—	57 (100%)
2024-10-14	6	vs BUF	23	Over	—	63 (100%)
2024-10-06	5	@ MIN	29	Over	—	72 (100%)
2024-09-29	4	vs DEN	24	Over	—	74 (100%)
2024-09-19	3	vs NE	27	Over	—	73 (100%)
2024-09-15	2	@ TEN	18	Under	—	57 (100%)
2024-09-09	1	@ SF	13	Under	—	38 (75%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 21.5Underdog 21.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 3m ago.