NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Michael Penix Jr. QB

ATL vs CHI · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

20.5 Completions O +100U -127

Hit rate · Last 20 24%4/17 Odds imply 47.2% Over

Season avg: 17.3
Graph avg: 16.4
Graph median: 18.01–27
Over the close: 25%3/12

2026 per game

Pass Yds239.7▲+19.4

Att25.7▼-5.0

Cmp%67.5%▲+7.4

Pass TD1.0+0.0

INT0.3+0.0

Rush Yds1.3▼-6.4

Snaps63.0▲+1.6

Snap %98.3%▲+5.1

20.5

2024

1

Oct 20
2

Nov 17
18

Dec 22
19

Dec 29
21

Jan 05
2025

27

Sep 07
13

Sep 14
18

Sep 21
20

Sep 28
20

Oct 13
21

Oct 19
22

Nov 02
12

Nov 09
13

Nov 16
2026

18

Sep 24
15

Oct 05
19

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 20.5

Home 25% 2/8 · avg 17.4
Away 22% 2/9 · avg 15.6
vs CHI No games

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 18.5 47% 8/17
O 19.5 35% 6/17
O 20.5 Today 24% 4/17
O 21.5 12% 2/17
O 22.5 6% 1/17

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs CHI

What CHI allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds255.6#6
Yds/Att8.1#4
Cmp%61.5%#25
Pass TD1.5#16
Pass Att31.7#17

QBs vs CHI · 2026

Each main QB who faced CHI this season: completions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-4.4

Avg diff %-19%

Beat their average25% (1/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Jordan Love	25	21.8	+15%
Oct 04	Geno Smith	8	23.5	-66%
Sep 28	Jalen Hurts	16	18.2	-12%
Sep 13	Bryce Young	23	26.0	-12%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

ATL offense

ATL offense: Share of ATL pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%10.1 yds	3%11.8 yds	9%11.8 yds
Short	33%6.4 yds	19%6.6 yds	29%5.6 yds

Share of ATL pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

CHI defense

CHI defense: Throws CHI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%12.1 yds#12	4%21.1 yds#5	9%15.2 yds#5
Short	31%4.9 yds#30	19%8.5 yds#6	30%6.2 yds#6

Throws CHI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	10%16.1 yds	3%12.4 yds	10%9.4 yds
Short	37%5.7 yds	10%7.2 yds	30%6.7 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of ATL targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Drake London WR	5	7.2	36	28.6%
2	Bijan Robinson RB	5	5.0	25	21.0%
3	Jahan Dotson WR	5	3.4	17	13.7%
4	Kyle Pitts TE	5	3.0	15	11.3%
5	Austin Hooper TE	3	2.3	7	8.9%
6	Zachariah Branch WR	5	1.6	8	6.2%
7	Olamide Zaccheaus WR	5	1.4	7	5.7%
8	Charlie Woerner TE	3	1.3	4	4.7%
9	Brian Robinson RB	5	0.8	4	2.9%
10	Chris Blair WR	4	0.8	3	2.4%

Game log · 17 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Completions	vs 20.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	vs BAL	19	Under	18.5	61 (95%)
2026-10-05	4	@ NO	15	Under	20.5	57 (100%)
2026-09-24	3	@ GB	18	Under	19.5	71 (100%)
2025-11-16	11	vs CAR	13	Under	19.5	41 (62%)
2025-11-09	10	@ IND	12	Under	13.5	63 (100%)
2025-11-02	9	@ NE	22	Over	22.5	56 (100%)
2025-10-19	7	@ SF	21	Over	23.5	65 (100%)
2025-10-13	6	vs BUF	20	Under	20.5	70 (100%)
2025-09-28	4	vs WAS	20	Under	19.5	65 (100%)
2025-09-21	3	@ CAR	18	Under	19.5	51 (77%)
2025-09-14	2	@ MIN	13	Under	21.5	66 (100%)
2025-09-07	1	vs TB	27	Over	21.5	76 (100%)
2025-01-05	18	vs CAR	21	Over	—	79 (100%)
2024-12-29	17	@ WAS	19	Under	—	64 (100%)
2024-12-22	16	vs NYG	18	Under	—	67 (100%)
2024-11-17	11	@ DEN	2	Under	—	13 (22%)
2024-10-20	7	vs SEA	1	Under	—	7 (10%)

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 4m ago.