NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Kirk Cousins QB

LV vs BUF · Sun Oct 18 · 4:25 PM ET

22.5 Completions O -102U -130

Hit rate · All 28%8/29 Odds imply 47.2% Over

Season avg: 22.4
Graph avg: 20.0
Graph median: 20.05–42
Over the close: 46%6/13

2026 per game

Pass Yds253.8▲+81.7

Att34.4▲+7.5

Cmp%65.1%▲+3.4

Pass TD2.4▲+1.4

INT0.8▲+0.3

Rush Yds-0.4▼-1.1

Snaps67.0▲+12.7

Snap %96.6%▲+10.5

22.5

2024

16

Sep 08
20

Sep 16
20

Sep 22
21

Sep 29
42

Oct 03
19

Oct 13
24

Oct 20
23

Oct 27
19

Nov 03
23

Nov 10
18

Nov 17
24

Dec 01
23

Dec 08
11

Dec 16
2025

5

Sep 21
21

Oct 26
6

Nov 16
16

Nov 23
21

Nov 30
15

Dec 07
30

Dec 11
21

Dec 21
13

Dec 29
18

Jan 04
2026

21

Sep 13
19

Sep 20
22

Sep 27
31

Oct 04
19

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 22.5

Home 29% 4/14 · avg 20.8
Away 27% 4/15 · avg 19.3
vs BUF No games

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 20.5 48% 14/29
O 21.5 31% 9/29
O 22.5 Today 28% 8/29
O 23.5 17% 5/29
O 24.5 10% 3/29

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs BUF

What BUF allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds229.2#15
Yds/Att6.5#26
Cmp%62.5%#21
Pass TD2.2#3
Pass Att35.5#6

QBs vs BUF · 2026

Each main QB who faced BUF this season: completions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+5.0

Avg diff %+23%

Beat their average100% (5/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 12	Matthew Stafford	40	24.8	+62%
Oct 04	Drake Maye	22	19.2	+14%
Sep 27	Justin Herbert	20	16.2	+23%
Sep 17	Jared Goff	26	25.5	+2%
Sep 13	C.J. Stroud	26	23.2	+12%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

LV offense

LV offense: Share of LV pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%14.5 yds	3%5.3 yds	5%7.0 yds
Short	30%5.6 yds	19%7.0 yds	35%5.8 yds

Share of LV pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

BUF defense

BUF defense: Throws BUF faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%11.5 yds#14	4%8.1 yds#32	9%9.2 yds#25
Short	30%5.5 yds#22	16%6.5 yds#20	35%5.4 yds#16

Throws BUF faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%11.3 yds	3%5.4 yds	7%7.4 yds
Short	31%6.3 yds	22%7.4 yds	28%6.4 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of LV targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Brock Bowers TE	3	11.3	34	31.3%
2	Ashton Jeanty RB	5	6.0	30	17.6%
3	Tre Tucker WR	5	5.6	28	16.4%
4	Michael Mayer TE	5	5.0	25	14.3%
5	Jalen Nailor WR	3	3.7	11	12.5%
6	Jack Bech WR	2	3.0	6	10.3%
7	Cody White WR	5	2.8	14	8.0%
8	Malik Benson WR	5	1.6	8	5.0%
9	Ian Thomas TE	3	1.3	4	3.5%
10	Deven Thompkins WR	1	1.0	1	2.8%

Game log · 29 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Completions	vs 22.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	@ NE	19	Under	22.5	50 (83%)
2026-10-04	4	vs KC	31	Over	21.5	84 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	@ NO	22	Under	20.5	70 (100%)
2026-09-20	2	@ LAC	19	Under	19.5	63 (100%)
2026-09-13	1	vs MIA	21	Under	19.5	68 (100%)
2026-01-04	18	vs NO	18	Under	19.5	63 (100%)
2025-12-29	17	vs LA	13	Under	20.5	53 (100%)
2025-12-21	16	@ ARI	21	Under	20.5	77 (100%)
2025-12-11	15	@ TB	30	Over	24.5	71 (100%)
2025-12-07	14	vs SEA	15	Under	19.5	64 (100%)
2025-11-30	13	@ NYJ	21	Under	22.5	69 (100%)
2025-11-23	12	@ NO	16	Under	20.5	56 (100%)
2025-11-16	11	vs CAR	6	Under	—	25 (38%)
2025-10-26	8	vs MIA	21	Under	20.5	50 (100%)
2025-09-21	3	@ CAR	5	Under	—	15 (23%)
2024-12-16	15	@ LV	11	Under	—	58 (100%)
2024-12-08	14	@ MIN	23	Over	—	74 (100%)
2024-12-01	13	vs LAC	24	Over	—	81 (100%)
2024-11-17	11	@ DEN	18	Under	—	46 (78%)
2024-11-10	10	@ NO	23	Over	—	78 (100%)
2024-11-03	9	vs DAL	19	Under	—	57 (100%)
2024-10-27	8	@ TB	23	Over	—	62 (100%)
2024-10-20	7	vs SEA	24	Over	—	66 (90%)
2024-10-13	6	@ CAR	19	Under	—	70 (100%)
2024-10-03	5	vs TB	42	Over	—	87 (100%)
2024-09-29	4	vs NO	21	Under	—	56 (100%)
2024-09-22	3	vs KC	20	Under	—	61 (100%)
2024-09-16	2	@ PHI	20	Under	—	61 (100%)
2024-09-08	1	vs PIT	16	Under	—	56 (100%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 22.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: FanDuel, updated 3m ago.