NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Caleb Williams QB

CHI vs ATL · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

19.5 Completions O -112U -114

Hit rate · All 53%20/38 Odds imply 49.8% Over

Season avg: 18.0
Graph avg: 20.1
Graph median: 20.010–33
Over the close: 50%10/20

2026 per game

Pass Yds203.5▼-36.5

Att27.5▼-7.1

Cmp%65.5%▲+8.2

Pass TD1.0▼-0.6

INT0.5▼-0.1

Rush Yds53.5▲+29.9

Snaps69.5▲+1.0

Snap %93.0%▼-6.2

19.5

2024

14

Sep 08
23

Sep 15
33

Sep 22
17

Sep 29
20

Oct 06
23

Oct 13
10

Oct 27
22

Nov 03
16

Nov 10
23

Nov 17
32

Nov 24
20

Nov 28
17

Dec 08
18

Dec 16
26

Dec 22
16

Dec 26
21

Jan 05
2025

21

Sep 08
19

Sep 14
19

Sep 21
22

Sep 28
17

Oct 13
15

Oct 19
25

Oct 26
20

Nov 02
20

Nov 09
16

Nov 16
19

Nov 23
17

Nov 28
19

Dec 07
17

Dec 14
19

Dec 20
25

Dec 28
20

Jan 04
24

Jan 10
23

Jan 18
2026

21

Sep 13
15

Sep 20
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 19.5

Home 50% 10/20 · avg 19.9
Away 56% 10/18 · avg 20.3
vs ATL No games

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 17.5 68% 26/38
O 18.5 66% 25/38
O 19.5 Today 53% 20/38
O 20.5 40% 15/38
O 21.5 32% 12/38

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs ATL

What ATL allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds256.4#5
Yds/Att6.8#21
Cmp%60.7%#27
Pass TD1.8#7
Pass Att37.7#2

QBs vs ATL · 2026

Each main QB who faced ATL this season: completions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+2.4

Avg diff %+11%

Beat their average75% (3/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 05	Tyler Shough	30	26.8	+12%
Sep 24	Jordan Love	28	21.0	+33%
Sep 20	Bryce Young	23	26.0	-12%
Sep 13	Aaron Rodgers	24	21.5	+12%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

CHI offense

CHI offense: Share of CHI pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%13.8 yds	6%12.2 yds	8%6.7 yds
Short	22%5.8 yds	24%6.7 yds	32%5.6 yds

Share of CHI pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

ATL defense

ATL defense: Throws ATL faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	11%8.8 yds#23	2%18.7 yds#8	10%11.2 yds#15
Short	32%6.2 yds#9	15%5.8 yds#26	30%4.8 yds#26

Throws ATL faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%11.1 yds	6%14.3 yds	9%6.9 yds
Short	20%6.2 yds	19%5.2 yds	37%5.7 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of CHI targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Luther Burden III WR	5	7.0	35	21.9%
2	Kalif Raymond WR	5	5.4	27	17.7%
3	Rome Odunze WR	5	5.8	29	17.5%
4	Colston Loveland TE	5	4.6	23	14.2%
5	D'Andre Swift RB	5	3.2	16	9.7%
6	Roschon Johnson RB	3	2.7	8	6.9%
7	Cole Kmet TE	5	1.8	9	5.9%
8	Kyle Monangai RB	4	1.2	5	4.4%
9	Sam Roush TE	4	1.2	5	4.0%
10	Jahdae Walker WR	2	1.0	2	3.2%

Game log · 38 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Completions	vs 19.5	Close	Snaps
2026-09-20	2	vs MIN	15	Under	19.5	64 (86%)
2026-09-13	1	@ CAR	21	Over	20.5	75 (100%)
2026-01-18	20 (P)	vs LA	23	Over	18.5	81 (100%)
2026-01-10	19 (P)	vs GB	24	Over	23.5	78 (100%)
2026-01-04	18	vs DET	20	Over	18.5	55 (100%)
2025-12-28	17	@ SF	25	Over	22.5	66 (100%)
2025-12-20	16	vs GB	19	Under	15.5	64 (100%)
2025-12-14	15	vs CLE	17	Under	16.5	66 (100%)
2025-12-07	14	@ GB	19	Under	—	70 (100%)
2025-11-28	13	@ PHI	17	Under	15.5	87 (100%)
2025-11-23	12	vs PIT	19	Under	19.5	65 (100%)
2025-11-16	11	@ MIN	16	Under	16.5	75 (100%)
2025-11-09	10	vs NYG	20	Over	21.5	68 (100%)
2025-11-02	9	@ CIN	20	Over	23.5	80 (100%)
2025-10-26	8	@ BAL	25	Over	19.5	63 (100%)
2025-10-19	7	vs NO	15	Under	19.5	69 (100%)
2025-10-13	6	@ WAS	17	Under	19.5	64 (100%)
2025-09-28	4	@ LV	22	Over	20.5	68 (100%)
2025-09-21	3	vs DAL	19	Under	21.5	59 (100%)
2025-09-14	2	@ DET	19	Under	20.5	57 (84%)
2025-09-08	1	vs MIN	21	Over	21.5	67 (100%)
2025-01-05	18	@ GB	21	Over	—	62 (100%)
2024-12-26	17	vs SEA	16	Under	—	61 (100%)
2024-12-22	16	vs DET	26	Over	—	64 (100%)
2024-12-16	15	@ MIN	18	Under	—	64 (96%)
2024-12-08	14	@ SF	17	Under	—	49 (92%)
2024-11-28	13	@ DET	20	Over	—	67 (100%)
2024-11-24	12	vs MIN	32	Over	—	76 (100%)
2024-11-17	11	vs GB	23	Over	—	72 (100%)
2024-11-10	10	vs NE	16	Under	—	60 (100%)
2024-11-03	9	@ ARI	22	Over	—	74 (100%)
2024-10-27	8	@ WAS	10	Under	—	63 (100%)
2024-10-13	6	vs JAX	23	Over	—	63 (95%)
2024-10-06	5	vs CAR	20	Over	—	72 (96%)
2024-09-29	4	vs LA	17	Under	—	60 (100%)
2024-09-22	3	@ IND	33	Over	—	90 (100%)
2024-09-15	2	@ HOU	23	Over	—	70 (100%)
2024-09-08	1	vs TEN	14	Under	—	56 (100%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 19.5Underdog 19.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 2m ago.