NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Deshaun Watson QB

CLE vs BAL · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

19.5 Completions O -111U -115

Hit rate · All 50%6/12 Odds imply 49.6% Over

Season avg: 19.0
Graph avg: 19.3
Graph median: 18.515–24
Over the close: 40%2/5

2026 per game

Pass Yds202.0

Att29.6

Cmp%64.2%

Pass TD1.4

INT0.4

Rush Yds33.4

Snaps62.0

Snap %99.8%

19.5

2024

24

Sep 08
22

Sep 15
21

Sep 22
24

Sep 29
15

Oct 06
16

Oct 13
15

Oct 20
2026

16

Sep 13
24

Sep 20
16

Sep 27
24

Oct 01
15

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 19.5

Home 60% 3/5 · avg 20.0
Away 43% 3/7 · avg 18.9
vs BAL No games

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 17.5 50% 6/12
O 18.5 50% 6/12
O 19.5 Today 50% 6/12
O 20.5 50% 6/12
O 21.5 42% 5/12

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs BAL

What BAL allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds266.9#2
Yds/Att7.4#11
Cmp%66.9%#5
Pass TD1.0#29
Pass Att36.0#3

QBs vs BAL · 2026

Each main QB who faced BAL this season: completions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-0.3

Avg diff %-1%

Beat their average40% (2/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Michael Penix Jr.	19	16.5	+15%
Oct 04	Cam Ward	20	19.5	+3%
Sep 27	Dak Prescott	25	26.0	-4%
Sep 20	Tyler Shough	27	27.5	-2%
Sep 13	Daniel Jones	19	22.2	-15%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

CLE offense

CLE offense: Share of CLE pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	5%10.9 yds	6%13.1 yds	5%10.6 yds
Short	34%5.3 yds	18%7.6 yds	32%5.2 yds

Share of CLE pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

BAL defense

BAL defense: Throws BAL faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%16.0 yds#3	5%14.3 yds#19	7%17.7 yds#3
Short	31%5.8 yds#16	16%5.8 yds#27	35%5.2 yds#21

Throws BAL faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 5 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%12.2 yds	5%7.9 yds	5%15.3 yds
Short	44%5.8 yds	13%7.9 yds	27%5.1 yds

Last 5 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of CLE targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	KC Concepcion WR	5	5.8	29	20.0%
2	Denzel Boston WR	5	5.8	29	19.6%
3	Harold Fannin Jr. TE	5	5.4	27	18.3%
4	Quinshon Judkins RB	5	4.0	20	13.2%
5	Jerry Jeudy WR	4	3.8	15	13.1%
6	Isaiah Bond WR	3	3.0	9	9.4%
7	Raheim Sanders RB	5	2.4	12	8.6%
8	Blake Whiteheart TE	3	1.0	3	3.7%
9	Jaleel McLaughlin RB	3	0.7	2	2.2%
10	Michael Burton FB	2	0.5	1	1.7%

Game log · 12 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Completions	vs 19.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	@ NYJ	15	Under	19.5	68 (100%)
2026-10-01	4	vs PIT	24	Over	18.5	64 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	vs CAR	16	Under	18.5	69 (99%)
2026-09-20	2	@ TB	24	Over	17.5	58 (100%)
2026-09-13	1	@ JAX	16	Under	18.5	51 (100%)
2024-10-20	7	vs CIN	15	Under	—	33 (39%)
2024-10-13	6	@ PHI	16	Under	—	56 (98%)
2024-10-06	5	@ WAS	15	Under	—	57 (92%)
2024-09-29	4	@ LV	24	Over	—	59 (100%)
2024-09-22	3	vs NYG	21	Over	—	65 (97%)
2024-09-15	2	@ JAX	22	Over	—	69 (96%)
2024-09-08	1	vs DAL	24	Over	—	76 (100%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 19Underdog 21.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 3m ago.