NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Josh Allen QB

BUF vs LV · Sun Oct 18 · 4:25 PM ET

30.5 Pass Att O -120U -106

Hit rate · All 40%17/42 Odds imply 51.5% Over

Season avg: 27.6
Graph avg: 29.5
Graph median: 29.017–46
Over the close: 48%11/23

2026 per game

Pass Yds249.8▲+15.1

Att27.6▼-2.1

Cmp%65.9%▼-3.7

Pass TD1.4▼-0.2

INT0.8▲+0.1

Rush Yds47.8▲+10.1

Snaps64.2▼-1.0

Snap %100.0%▲+1.9

30.5

2024

30

Sep 23
29

Sep 29
30

Oct 06
25

Oct 14
33

Oct 20
34

Oct 27
39

Nov 03
37

Nov 10
40

Nov 17
17

Dec 01
37

Dec 08
34

Dec 15
29

Dec 22
27

Dec 29
26

Jan 12
22

Jan 19
34

Jan 26
2025

46

Sep 07
25

Sep 14
28

Sep 18
22

Sep 28
31

Oct 05
26

Oct 13
19

Oct 26
26

Nov 02
40

Nov 09
30

Nov 16
34

Nov 20
23

Nov 30
28

Dec 07
28

Dec 14
19

Dec 21
35

Dec 28
35

Jan 11
39

Jan 17
2026

29

Sep 13
31

Sep 17
26

Sep 27
33

Oct 04
19

Oct 12
?

Oct 18

Showing the latest 40 of 42 games.

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 30.5

Home 38% 8/21 · avg 29.6
Away 43% 9/21 · avg 29.3
vs LV No games

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 28.5 55% 23/42
O 29.5 48% 20/42
O 30.5 Today 40% 17/42
O 31.5 36% 15/42
O 32.5 36% 15/42

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs LV

What LV allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds222.6#19
Yds/Att7.1#14
Cmp%67.0%#4
Pass TD1.5#17
Pass Att31.2#24

QBs vs LV · 2026

Each main QB who faced LV this season: pass att in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+0.5

Avg diff %+2%

Beat their average60% (3/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Drake Maye	34	29.2	+16%
Oct 04	Patrick Mahomes	30	32.7	-8%
Sep 27	Tyler Shough	42	40.8	+3%
Sep 20	Justin Herbert	27	29.0	-7%
Sep 13	Malik Willis	27	25.8	+5%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

BUF offense

BUF offense: Share of BUF pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%6.4 yds	7%17.5 yds	5%17.6 yds
Short	30%7.7 yds	13%8.6 yds	36%6.0 yds

Share of BUF pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

LV defense

LV defense: Throws LV faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	10%15.1 yds#4	4%12.0 yds#27	6%10.1 yds#21
Short	35%5.7 yds#18	15%6.6 yds#18	30%5.2 yds#20

Throws LV faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%4.5 yds	8%17.8 yds	7%14.8 yds
Short	28%7.7 yds	13%8.9 yds	38%5.8 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of BUF targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Khalil Shakir WR	5	5.2	26	19.5%
2	DJ Moore WR	4	5.0	20	18.4%
3	Dalton Kincaid TE	5	4.2	21	15.9%
4	Ty Johnson RB	3	3.3	10	14.8%
5	Keon Coleman WR	5	3.6	18	13.4%
6	Skyler Bell WR	1	2.0	2	11.1%
7	Josh Palmer WR	3	3.0	9	10.4%
8	James Cook RB	5	2.2	11	8.2%
9	Dawson Knox TE	5	1.8	9	7.6%
10	Ray Davis RB	4	0.5	2	2.2%

Game log · 42 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Pass Att	vs 30.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-12	5	@ LA	19	Under	33.5	64 (100%)
2026-10-04	4	vs NE	33	Over	29.5	59 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	vs LAC	26	Under	30.5	66 (100%)
2026-09-17	2	vs DET	31	Over	31.5	74 (100%)
2026-09-13	1	@ HOU	29	Under	30.5	58 (100%)
2026-01-17	20 (P)	@ DEN	39	Over	29.5	78 (100%)
2026-01-11	19 (P)	@ JAX	35	Over	35.5	63 (100%)
2025-12-28	17	vs PHI	35	Over	27.5	76 (100%)
2025-12-21	16	@ CLE	19	Under	27.5	50 (100%)
2025-12-14	15	@ NE	28	Under	29.5	70 (100%)
2025-12-07	14	vs CIN	28	Under	31.5	64 (100%)
2025-11-30	13	@ PIT	23	Under	21.5	74 (100%)
2025-11-20	12	@ HOU	34	Over	30.5	66 (100%)
2025-11-16	11	vs TB	30	Under	28.5	56 (100%)
2025-11-09	10	@ MIA	40	Over	37.5	65 (96%)
2025-11-02	9	vs KC	26	Under	29.5	66 (100%)
2025-10-26	8	@ CAR	19	Under	30.5	52 (83%)
2025-10-13	6	@ ATL	26	Under	30.5	57 (100%)
2025-10-05	5	vs NE	31	Over	28.5	68 (100%)
2025-09-28	4	vs NO	22	Under	20.5	59 (100%)
2025-09-18	3	vs MIA	28	Under	26.5	60 (100%)
2025-09-14	2	@ NYJ	25	Under	29.5	65 (87%)
2025-09-07	1	vs BAL	46	Over	43.5	85 (100%)
2025-01-26	21 (P)	@ KC	34	Over	—	73 (100%)
2025-01-19	20 (P)	vs BAL	22	Under	—	61 (100%)
2025-01-12	19 (P)	vs DEN	26	Under	—	71 (93%)
2024-12-29	17	vs NYJ	27	Under	—	60 (86%)
2024-12-22	16	vs NE	29	Under	—	59 (100%)
2024-12-15	15	@ DET	34	Over	—	70 (100%)
2024-12-08	14	@ LA	37	Over	—	60 (100%)
2024-12-01	13	vs SF	17	Under	—	43 (74%)
2024-11-17	11	vs KC	40	Over	—	73 (100%)
2024-11-10	10	@ IND	37	Over	—	73 (99%)
2024-11-03	9	vs MIA	39	Over	—	66 (100%)
2024-10-27	8	@ SEA	34	Over	—	69 (91%)
2024-10-20	7	vs TEN	33	Over	—	55 (100%)
2024-10-14	6	@ NYJ	25	Under	—	69 (100%)
2024-10-06	5	@ HOU	30	Under	—	60 (98%)
2024-09-29	4	@ BAL	29	Under	—	51 (86%)
2024-09-23	3	vs JAX	30	Under	—	56 (88%)
2024-09-12	2	@ MIA	19	Under	—	41 (91%)
2024-09-08	1	vs ARI	23	Under	—	62 (100%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 30.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 13m ago.