NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Trevor Lawrence QB

JAX vs HOU · Sun Oct 18 · 9:30 AM ET

31.5 Pass Att O -130U -102

Hit rate · Last 10 40%4/10 Odds imply 52.8% Over

Season avg: 28.6
Graph avg: 30.8
Graph median: 30.023–39
Over the close: 30%3/10

2026 per game

Pass Yds234.8▲+0.7

Att28.6▼-4.2

Cmp%67.1%▲+6.3

Pass TD2.0▲+0.2

INT0.6▼-0.2

Rush Yds11.8▼-9.9

Snaps60.2▼-4.8

Snap %96.6%▼-0.3

31.5

2025

32

Dec 14
36

Dec 21
37

Dec 28
30

Jan 04
30

Jan 11
2026

23

Sep 13
29

Sep 20
29

Sep 27
23

Oct 04
39

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 31.5

Home 39% 7/18 · avg 30.4
Away 47% 7/15 · avg 31.3
vs HOU 50% 2/4 · avg 26.5

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 29.5 60% 6/10
O 30.5 40% 4/10
O 31.5 Today 40% 4/10
O 32.5 30% 3/10
O 33.5 30% 3/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs HOU

What HOU allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds231.5#14
Yds/Att7.1#16
Cmp%64.5%#13
Pass TD1.4#18
Pass Att32.7#13

QBs vs HOU · 2026

Each main QB who faced HOU this season: pass att in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+1.8

Avg diff %+6%

Beat their average80% (4/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Cam Ward	36	29.8	+21%
Oct 04	Dak Prescott	45	36.8	+22%
Sep 27	Daniel Jones	36	35.0	+3%
Sep 20	Joe Burrow	31	39.5	-22%
Sep 13	Josh Allen	29	27.2	+6%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

JAX offense

JAX offense: Share of JAX pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	10%9.4 yds	4%18.1 yds	7%11.5 yds
Short	34%6.8 yds	16%6.6 yds	28%7.9 yds

Share of JAX pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

HOU defense

HOU defense: Throws HOU faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	10%12.6 yds#11	3%22.5 yds#2	7%13.0 yds#7
Short	28%5.1 yds#28	19%6.9 yds#17	33%4.5 yds#29

Throws HOU faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	10%9.4 yds	5%18.1 yds	7%11.5 yds
Short	34%6.8 yds	17%6.6 yds	28%7.9 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of JAX targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Parker Washington WR	5	7.0	35	25.3%
2	Brenton Strange TE	5	5.2	26	19.2%
3	Jakobi Meyers WR	5	3.6	18	13.6%
4	Brian Thomas Jr. WR	5	3.4	17	12.6%
5	Josh Cameron WR	5	2.4	12	8.3%
6	Bhayshul Tuten RB	5	2.0	10	7.2%
7	Nate Boerkircher TE	4	1.5	6	5.6%
8	LeQuint Allen Jr. RB	4	1.2	5	4.1%
9	Ameer Abdullah RB	5	0.6	3	2.4%
10	Quintin Morris TE	4	0.5	2	2.1%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Pass Att	vs 31.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	vs PHI	39	Over	29.5	72 (100%)
2026-10-04	4	@ CIN	23	Under	33.5	61 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	vs NE	29	Under	32.5	59 (95%)
2026-09-20	2	@ DEN	29	Under	32.5	59 (100%)
2026-09-13	1	vs CLE	23	Under	31.5	50 (88%)
2026-01-11	19 (P)	vs BUF	30	Under	32.5	56 (100%)
2026-01-04	18	vs TEN	30	Under	31.5	50 (82%)
2025-12-28	17	@ IND	37	Over	38.5	69 (100%)
2025-12-21	16	@ DEN	36	Over	35.5	70 (100%)
2025-12-14	15	vs NYJ	32	Over	30.5	54 (87%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 31.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: FanDuel, updated 2m ago.