NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Cam Ward QB

TEN vs IND · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

32.5 Pass Att O -101U -126

Hit rate · Last 20 55%11/20 Odds imply 47.4% Over

Season avg: 31.0
Graph avg: 31.7
Graph median: 35.03–42
Over the close: 50%2/4

2026 per game

Pass Yds179.2▼-7.2

Att31.0▼-0.8

Cmp%63.2%▲+3.4

Pass TD0.6▼-0.3

INT0.6▲+0.2

Rush Yds11.8▲+2.4

Snaps58.0▼-1.2

Snap %100.0%▲+5.4

32.5

2025

38

Sep 21
26

Sep 28
39

Oct 05
38

Oct 12
34

Oct 19
38

Oct 26
21

Nov 02
37

Nov 16
42

Nov 23
38

Nov 30
28

Dec 07
29

Dec 14
28

Dec 21
40

Dec 28
3

Jan 04
2026

32

Sep 13
20

Sep 20
36

Sep 27
31

Oct 04
36

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 32.5

Home 67% 8/12 · avg 33.2
Away 40% 4/10 · avg 29.6
vs IND 100% 2/2 · avg 38.0

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 30.5 65% 13/20
O 31.5 60% 12/20
O 32.5 Today 55% 11/20
O 33.5 55% 11/20
O 34.5 50% 10/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs IND

What IND allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds262.1#3
Yds/Att7.8#7
Cmp%62.3%#22
Pass TD1.7#8
Pass Att33.7#9

QBs vs IND · 2026

Each main QB who faced IND this season: pass att in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-3.6

Avg diff %-11%

Beat their average40% (2/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Aaron Rodgers	31	38.2	-19%
Oct 04	Marcus Mariota	4	23.5	-83%
Sep 27	C.J. Stroud	27	39.5	-32%
Sep 20	Patrick Mahomes	47	27.0	+74%
Sep 13	Lamar Jackson	25	23.7	+6%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

TEN offense

TEN offense: Share of TEN pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%5.7 yds	2%16.8 yds	7%14.4 yds
Short	34%5.3 yds	10%4.1 yds	40%4.4 yds

Share of TEN pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

IND defense

IND defense: Throws IND faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%13.6 yds#8	3%12.3 yds#24	10%12.0 yds#12
Short	28%6.1 yds#11	21%8.8 yds#4	32%5.9 yds#11

Throws IND faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%6.6 yds	2%16.8 yds	7%14.1 yds
Short	31%5.9 yds	11%4.2 yds	41%4.5 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of TEN targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Carnell Tate WR	5	7.4	37	26.7%
2	Wan'Dale Robinson WR	5	6.0	30	19.3%
3	Tyjae Spears RB	5	3.2	16	11.1%
4	Gunnar Helm TE	5	2.6	13	9.5%
5	Elic Ayomanor WR	5	2.4	12	9.2%
6	Tony Pollard RB	5	2.4	12	8.3%
7	Calvin Ridley WR	4	2.0	8	7.6%
8	Daniel Bellinger TE	5	1.4	7	4.9%
9	Chimere Dike WR	5	1.4	7	4.3%
10	Kylen Granson TE	1	1.0	1	2.9%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Pass Att	vs 32.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	vs HOU	36	Over	31.5	63 (100%)
2026-10-04	4	@ BAL	31	Under	32.5	64 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	@ NYG	36	Over	30.5	60 (100%)
2026-09-20	2	vs PHI	20	Under	32.5	53 (100%)
2026-09-13	1	vs NYJ	32	Under	—	50 (100%)
2026-01-04	18	@ JAX	3	Under	—	5 (9%)
2025-12-28	17	vs NO	40	Over	—	74 (100%)
2025-12-21	16	vs KC	28	Under	—	73 (100%)
2025-12-14	15	@ SF	29	Under	—	53 (100%)
2025-12-07	14	@ CLE	28	Under	—	66 (100%)
2025-11-30	13	vs JAX	38	Over	—	59 (100%)
2025-11-23	12	vs SEA	42	Over	—	76 (100%)
2025-11-16	11	vs HOU	37	Over	—	59 (100%)
2025-11-02	9	vs LAC	21	Under	—	47 (100%)
2025-10-26	8	@ IND	38	Over	—	71 (100%)
2025-10-19	7	vs NE	34	Over	—	53 (100%)
2025-10-12	6	@ LV	38	Over	—	61 (100%)
2025-10-05	5	@ ARI	39	Over	—	67 (100%)
2025-09-28	4	@ HOU	26	Under	—	50 (100%)
2025-09-21	3	vs IND	38	Over	—	70 (100%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 32.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 15m ago.