NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Brock Purdy QB

SF vs WAS · Mon Oct 19 · 8:15 PM ET

30.5 Pass Att O -104U -122

Hit rate · Last 20 50%10/20 Odds imply 48.1% Over

Season avg: 28.4
Graph avg: 30.8
Graph median: 30.522–40
Over the close: 31%5/16

2026 per game

Pass Yds239.2▲+5.7

Att28.4▼-2.7

Cmp%69.0%▲+1.8

Pass TD2.6▲+0.6

INT0.4▼-0.8

Rush Yds25.6▲+6.7

Snaps57.8▼-4.6

Snap %97.0%▲+0.2

30.5

2024

25

Dec 08
31

Dec 12
40

Dec 22
35

Dec 30
2025

35

Sep 07
38

Sep 28
26

Nov 16
32

Nov 24
29

Nov 30
30

Dec 14
34

Dec 22
33

Dec 28
27

Jan 03
31

Jan 11
27

Jan 17
2026

34

Sep 10
22

Sep 20
27

Sep 27
30

Oct 04
29

Oct 11
?

Oct 20

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 30.5

Home 41% 7/17 · avg 29.8
Away 50% 7/14 · avg 30.9
vs WAS No games

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 28.5 70% 14/20
O 29.5 60% 12/20
O 30.5 Today 50% 10/20
O 31.5 40% 8/20
O 32.5 35% 7/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs WAS

What WAS allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds247.2#8
Yds/Att6.9#19
Cmp%62.1%#23
Pass TD2.4#2
Pass Att35.6#5

QBs vs WAS · 2026

Each main QB who faced WAS this season: pass att in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+5.8

Avg diff %+26%

Beat their average40% (2/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Jameis Winston	54	26.0	+108%
Oct 04	Daniel Jones	34	35.5	-4%
Sep 27	Sam Darnold	45	26.0	+73%
Sep 20	Dak Prescott	31	40.2	-23%
Sep 13	Jalen Hurts	25	32.2	-22%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

SF offense

SF offense: Share of SF pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%8.3 yds	5%29.4 yds	5%11.2 yds
Short	38%6.7 yds	20%6.6 yds	26%5.6 yds

Share of SF pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

WAS defense

WAS defense: Throws WAS faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%4.0 yds#31	4%18.8 yds#7	8%12.8 yds#10
Short	30%5.3 yds#24	16%8.9 yds#3	34%5.2 yds#22

Throws WAS faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%8.8 yds	6%29.4 yds	4%9.8 yds
Short	38%6.7 yds	20%6.8 yds	26%5.6 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of SF targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Mike Evans WR	5	6.8	34	24.5%
2	George Kittle TE	5	5.6	28	20.7%
3	Christian McCaffrey RB	5	5.0	25	18.0%
4	Deebo Samuel Sr. WR	5	4.0	20	14.3%
5	Demarcus Robinson WR	2	3.0	6	11.6%
6	Kyle Juszczyk FB	3	2.0	6	8.0%
7	Jordan Watkins WR	1	2.0	2	7.7%
8	Brandin Cooks WR	2	1.5	3	5.4%
9	Jacob Cowing WR	5	1.0	5	3.7%
10	Luke Farrell TE	5	0.8	4	2.7%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Pass Att	vs 30.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	@ SEA	29	Under	32.5	60 (100%)
2026-10-04	4	vs DEN	30	Under	31.5	66 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	vs ARI	27	Under	30.5	54 (100%)
2026-09-20	2	vs MIA	22	Under	28.5	44 (85%)
2026-09-10	1	@ LA	34	Over	33.5	65 (100%)
2026-01-17	20 (P)	@ SEA	27	Under	33.5	51 (85%)
2026-01-11	19 (P)	@ PHI	31	Over	32.5	59 (100%)
2026-01-03	18	vs SEA	27	Under	34.5	42 (100%)
2025-12-28	17	vs CHI	33	Over	32.5	72 (100%)
2025-12-22	16	@ IND	34	Over	31.5	63 (95%)
2025-12-14	15	vs TEN	30	Under	30.5	74 (100%)
2025-11-30	13	@ CLE	29	Under	26.5	63 (94%)
2025-11-24	12	vs CAR	32	Over	34.5	70 (100%)
2025-11-16	11	@ ARI	26	Under	33.5	50 (91%)
2025-09-28	4	vs JAX	38	Over	42.5	66 (100%)
2025-09-07	1	@ SEA	35	Over	34.5	76 (100%)
2024-12-30	17	vs DET	35	Over	—	59 (92%)
2024-12-22	16	@ MIA	40	Over	—	64 (100%)
2024-12-12	15	vs LA	31	Over	—	54 (100%)
2024-12-08	14	vs CHI	25	Under	—	57 (93%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 30.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 3m ago.