NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Sam Darnold QB

SEA vs KC · Sun Oct 25 · 8:20 PM ET

30.5 Pass Att

Hit rate · Last 20 40%8/20 Odds imply —

Season avg: 29.8
Graph avg: 29.1
Graph median: 28.02–51
Over the close: 44%8/18

2026 per game

Pass Yds206.6▼-29.4

Att29.8▲+1.4

Cmp%60.4%▼-6.3

Pass TD1.4▼-0.1

INT1.4▲+0.7

Rush Yds7.0▲+1.5

Snaps56.0▼-4.6

Snap %82.0%▼-14.2

30.5

2025

27

Oct 12
31

Oct 20
24

Nov 02
12

Nov 09
44

Nov 16
26

Nov 23
26

Nov 30
30

Dec 07
36

Dec 14
34

Dec 18
27

Dec 28
26

Jan 03
17

Jan 17
36

Jan 25
38

Feb 08
2026

2

Sep 09
45

Sep 27
22

Oct 04
29

Oct 11
51

Oct 15
?

Oct 26

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 30.5

Home 46% 10/22 · avg 27.6
Away 52% 11/21 · avg 33.0
vs KC No games

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 28.5 50% 10/20
O 29.5 45% 9/20
O 30.5 Today 40% 8/20
O 31.5 35% 7/20
O 32.5 35% 7/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs KC

What KC allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds204.8#28
Yds/Att6.1#29
Cmp%60.7%#26
Pass TD0.9#31
Pass Att33.6#13

QBs vs KC · 2026

Each main QB who faced KC this season: pass att in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+6.0

Avg diff %+23%

Beat their average60% (3/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 18	Justin Herbert	37	28.6	+29%
Oct 04	Kirk Cousins	52	32.2	+61%
Sep 27	Malik Willis	36	23.5	+53%
Sep 20	Daniel Jones	31	37.4	-17%
Sep 14	Bo Nix	28	32.2	-13%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

SEA offense

SEA offense: Share of SEA pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	4%7.0 yds	4%11.5 yds	7%16.4 yds
Short	32%6.3 yds	16%7.5 yds	36%6.2 yds

Share of SEA pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

KC defense

KC defense: Throws KC faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%11.7 yds#12	5%14.2 yds#20	5%4.2 yds#31
Short	27%5.0 yds#27	17%6.2 yds#24	37%4.8 yds#28

Throws KC faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	4%7.5 yds	4%11.6 yds	8%13.1 yds
Short	33%6.0 yds	16%7.0 yds	35%6.2 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of SEA targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR	6	11.0	66	35.6%
2	Rashid Shaheed WR	6	4.5	27	14.9%
3	Cooper Kupp WR	6	4.2	25	12.4%
4	AJ Barner TE	6	4.0	24	12.4%
5	Jadarian Price RB	3	2.3	7	7.6%
6	Tory Horton WR	3	3.0	9	7.5%
7	George Holani RB	6	2.0	12	6.5%
8	Emanuel Wilson RB	6	1.3	8	5.6%
9	Elijah Arroyo TE	2	1.0	2	3.8%
10	Brady Russell RB	5	0.6	3	2.1%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Pass Att	vs 30.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-15	6	@ DEN	51	Over	30.5	85 (100%)
2026-10-11	5	vs SF	29	Under	30.5	63 (100%)
2026-10-04	4	vs LAC	22	Under	30.5	60 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	@ WAS	45	Over	28.5	67 (100%)
2026-09-09	1	vs NE	2	Under	30.5	5 (10%)
2026-02-08	22 (P)	@ NE	38	Over	29.5	72 (100%)
2026-01-25	21 (P)	vs LA	36	Over	30.5	67 (100%)
2026-01-17	20 (P)	vs SF	17	Under	27.5	47 (89%)
2026-01-03	18	@ SF	26	Under	30.5	69 (100%)
2025-12-28	17	@ CAR	27	Under	28.5	66 (100%)
2025-12-18	16	vs LA	34	Over	30.5	68 (100%)
2025-12-14	15	vs IND	36	Over	28.5	60 (100%)
2025-12-07	14	@ ATL	30	Under	27.5	53 (87%)
2025-11-30	13	vs MIN	26	Under	27.5	64 (96%)
2025-11-23	12	@ TEN	26	Under	27.5	48 (100%)
2025-11-16	11	@ LA	44	Over	35.5	84 (100%)
2025-11-09	10	vs ARI	12	Under	26.5	56 (90%)
2025-11-02	9	@ WAS	24	Under	—	48 (94%)
2025-10-20	7	vs HOU	31	Over	—	72 (100%)
2025-10-12	6	@ JAX	27	Under	32.5	55 (100%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 30.5Underdog 30.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: PrizePicks, updated 5m ago.