NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Kyler Murray QB

MIN vs IND · Sun Oct 25 · 1:00 PM ET

27.5 Pass Att

Hit rate · Last 20 75%15/20 Odds imply —

Season avg: 25.2
Graph avg: 31.6
Graph median: 31.55–48
Over the close: 22%2/9

2026 per game

Pass Yds165.5▼-26.9

Att25.2▼-7.0

Cmp%68.3%-0.0

Pass TD0.5▼-0.7

INT0.5▼-0.1

Rush Yds23.2▼-11.4

Snaps54.8▼-8.9

Snap %79.2%▼-19.5

27.5

2024

26

Oct 21
36

Oct 27
20

Nov 03
24

Nov 10
37

Nov 24
45

Dec 01
38

Dec 08
30

Dec 15
32

Dec 22
48

Dec 28
35

Jan 05
2025

29

Sep 07
25

Sep 14
35

Sep 21
41

Sep 25
31

Oct 05
2026

5

Sep 13
29

Sep 27
37

Oct 04
30

Oct 11
?

Oct 25

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 27.5

Home 50% 7/14 · avg 27.8
Away 100% 12/12 · avg 34.5
vs IND No games

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 25.5 80% 16/20
O 26.5 75% 15/20
O 27.5 Today 75% 15/20
O 28.5 75% 15/20
O 29.5 65% 13/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs IND

What IND allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds247.6#7
Yds/Att7.5#7
Cmp%61.9%#23
Pass TD1.6#12
Pass Att32.8#19

QBs vs IND · 2026

Each main QB who faced IND this season: pass att in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-4.8

Avg diff %-15%

Beat their average33% (2/6)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 18	Cam Ward	22	31.0	-29%
Oct 11	Aaron Rodgers	31	40.4	-23%
Oct 04	Marcus Mariota	4	23.5	-83%
Sep 27	C.J. Stroud	27	38.4	-30%
Sep 20	Patrick Mahomes	47	27.8	+69%
Sep 13	Lamar Jackson	25	23.7	+6%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

MIN offense

MIN offense: Share of MIN pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	11%15.9 yds	2%11.2 yds	8%7.5 yds
Short	27%4.8 yds	17%7.4 yds	35%5.5 yds

Share of MIN pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

IND defense

IND defense: Throws IND faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	5%12.2 yds#11	3%13.7 yds#22	10%11.7 yds#12
Short	30%6.0 yds#12	20%9.2 yds#1	33%5.8 yds#12

Throws IND faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 9 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%12.0 yds	3%7.6 yds	8%10.3 yds
Short	32%4.6 yds	18%7.7 yds	31%4.4 yds

Last 9 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of MIN targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Justin Jefferson WR	4	6.0	24	25.7%
2	Jordan Addison WR	4	5.5	22	22.3%
3	T.J. Hockenson TE	5	5.4	27	20.3%
4	Aaron Jones RB	5	3.6	18	12.6%
5	Gavin Bartholomew TE	2	3.5	7	11.9%
6	Josh Oliver TE	3	1.7	5	7.6%
7	Tai Felton WR	3	2.0	6	7.1%
8	Myles Price WR	5	1.4	7	5.0%
9	Jauan Jennings WR	4	1.2	5	4.7%
10	Ben Yurosek TE	1	1.0	1	3.4%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Pass Att	vs 27.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	@ NO	30	Over	31.5	71 (100%)
2026-10-04	4	vs MIA	37	Over	29.5	78 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	@ TB	29	Over	30.5	59 (100%)
2026-09-13	1	vs GB	5	Under	31.5	11 (17%)
2025-10-05	5	vs TEN	31	Over	31.5	65 (96%)
2025-09-25	4	vs SEA	41	Over	31.5	67 (100%)
2025-09-21	3	@ SF	35	Over	37.5	66 (100%)
2025-09-14	2	vs CAR	25	Under	25.5	54 (98%)
2025-09-07	1	@ NO	29	Over	32.5	66 (100%)
2025-01-05	18	vs SF	35	Over	—	60 (92%)
2024-12-28	17	@ LA	48	Over	—	79 (100%)
2024-12-22	16	@ CAR	32	Over	—	70 (100%)
2024-12-15	15	vs NE	30	Over	—	63 (90%)
2024-12-08	14	vs SEA	38	Over	—	71 (100%)
2024-12-01	13	@ MIN	45	Over	—	82 (100%)
2024-11-24	12	@ SEA	37	Over	—	58 (100%)
2024-11-10	10	vs NYJ	24	Under	—	52 (88%)
2024-11-03	9	vs CHI	20	Under	—	55 (95%)
2024-10-27	8	@ MIA	36	Over	—	66 (100%)
2024-10-21	7	vs LAC	26	Under	—	54 (95%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 27.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: PrizePicks, updated 7m ago.