NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Malik Willis QB

MIA vs NYJ · Sun Oct 25 · 1:00 PM ET

27.5 Pass Att

Hit rate · All 7%1/15 Odds imply —

Season avg: 26.0
Graph avg: 14.6
Graph median: 14.01–36
Over the close: 29%2/7

2026 per game

Pass Yds169.8▲+64.3

Att26.0▲+17.2

Cmp%56.2%▼-29.6

Pass TD0.4▼-0.3

INT0.8▲+0.8

Rush Yds37.2▲+6.5

Snaps58.6▲+34.1

Snap %100.0%▲+57.8

27.5

2024

1

Sep 06
14

Sep 15
19

Sep 22
5

Oct 27
2

Dec 23
13

Jan 05
2025

2

Nov 16
1

Nov 23
11

Dec 20
21

Dec 27
2026

27

Sep 13
23

Sep 20
36

Sep 27
17

Oct 04
27

Oct 11
?

Oct 25

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 27.5

Home 14% 1/7 · avg 16.3
Away 0% 0/8 · avg 13.1
vs NYJ No games

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 25.5 20% 3/15
O 26.5 20% 3/15
O 27.5 Today 7% 1/15
O 28.5 7% 1/15
O 29.5 7% 1/15

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs NYJ

What NYJ allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds239.5#15
Yds/Att7.3#11
Cmp%65.4%#9
Pass TD2.4#2
Pass Att32.7#21

QBs vs NYJ · 2026

Each main QB who faced NYJ this season: pass att in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+1.7

Avg diff %+19%

Beat their average67% (4/6)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 18	Drake Maye	32	30.2	+6%
Oct 11	Deshaun Watson	33	28.2	+17%
Oct 04	Tyson Bagent	34	15.0	+127%
Sep 27	Jared Goff	32	39.8	-19%
Sep 20	Jordan Love	29	39.4	-26%
Sep 13	Cam Ward	32	29.0	+10%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

MIA offense

MIA offense: Share of MIA pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%7.9 yds	8%12.1 yds	9%10.8 yds
Short	30%7.0 yds	14%7.1 yds	32%4.6 yds

Share of MIA pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

NYJ defense

NYJ defense: Throws NYJ faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%10.0 yds#20	4%14.6 yds#17	8%14.2 yds#4
Short	30%5.3 yds#25	19%7.0 yds#17	31%6.5 yds#5

Throws NYJ faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 9 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	10%9.8 yds	8%14.5 yds	11%15.9 yds
Short	24%5.5 yds	12%7.4 yds	35%4.7 yds

Last 9 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of MIA targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Malik Washington WR	5	7.2	36	28.0%
2	Caleb Douglas WR	2	5.0	10	19.5%
3	Kevin Coleman Jr. WR	4	4.2	17	17.3%
4	De'Von Achane RB	3	4.0	12	15.8%
5	Greg Dulcich TE	4	4.2	17	14.9%
6	Chris Bell WR	5	3.0	15	11.4%
7	Jalen Tolbert WR	2	1.5	3	6.8%
8	DJ Herman RB	2	1.5	3	6.5%
9	Will Kacmarek TE	5	1.2	6	5.5%
10	Ollie Gordon II RB	4	1.2	5	5.1%

Game log · 15 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Pass Att	vs 27.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	vs CIN	27	Under	27.5	66 (100%)
2026-10-04	4	@ MIN	17	Under	28.5	39 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	vs KC	36	Over	27.5	73 (100%)
2026-09-20	2	@ SF	23	Under	27.5	59 (100%)
2026-09-13	1	@ LV	27	Under	26.5	56 (100%)
2025-12-27	17	vs BAL	21	Under	28.5	39 (83%)
2025-12-20	16	@ CHI	11	Under	11.5	46 (64%)
2025-11-23	12	vs MIN	1	Under	—	6 (9%)
2025-11-16	11	@ NYG	2	Under	—	7 (13%)
2025-01-05	18	vs CHI	13	Under	—	43 (66%)
2024-12-23	16	vs NO	2	Under	—	9 (13%)
2024-10-27	8	@ JAX	5	Under	—	26 (37%)
2024-09-22	3	@ TEN	19	Under	—	63 (100%)
2024-09-15	2	vs IND	14	Under	—	70 (100%)
2024-09-06	1	@ PHI	1	Under	—	2 (3%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 27.5Underdog 27.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: Underdog, updated 12m ago.