NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Matthew Stafford QB

LAR vs ARI · Sun Oct 18 · 4:05 PM ET

34.5 Pass Att O -107U -119

Hit rate · All 46%20/43 Odds imply 48.8% Over

Season avg: 43.2
Graph avg: 35.3
Graph median: 33.019–55
Over the close: 52%13/25

2026 per game

Pass Yds314.4▲+32.2

Att43.2▲+7.4

Cmp%64.4%▲+0.9

Pass TD1.8▼-0.8

INT1.2▲+0.8

Rush Yds4.2▲+3.4

Snaps73.0▲+6.4

Snap %96.8%▼-2.0

34.5

2024

29

Sep 29
45

Oct 06
23

Oct 20
34

Oct 24
44

Nov 03
46

Nov 11
27

Nov 17
36

Nov 24
24

Dec 01
30

Dec 08
27

Dec 12
19

Dec 22
32

Dec 28
27

Jan 13
44

Jan 19
2025

29

Sep 07
33

Sep 14
33

Sep 21
41

Sep 28
47

Oct 02
26

Oct 12
33

Oct 19
32

Nov 02
36

Nov 09
28

Nov 16
35

Nov 23
28

Nov 30
31

Dec 07
38

Dec 14
49

Dec 18
38

Dec 29
40

Jan 04
42

Jan 10
42

Jan 18
35

Jan 25
2026

25

Sep 10
31

Sep 21
55

Sep 27
51

Oct 04
54

Oct 12
?

Oct 18

Showing the latest 40 of 43 games.

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 34.5

Home 45% 9/20 · avg 34.9
Away 48% 11/23 · avg 35.7
vs ARI 25% 1/4 · avg 32.5

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 32.5 56% 24/43
O 33.5 49% 21/43
O 34.5 Today 46% 20/43
O 35.5 42% 18/43
O 36.5 37% 16/43

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs ARI

What ARI allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds258.8#4
Yds/Att8.3#3
Cmp%66.1%#10
Pass TD2.8#1
Pass Att31.0#25

QBs vs ARI · 2026

Each main QB who faced ARI this season: pass att in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-4.8

Avg diff %-14%

Beat their average0% (0/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Jared Goff	30	40.2	-25%
Oct 04	Jameis Winston	29	34.3	-16%
Sep 27	Brock Purdy	27	28.8	-6%
Sep 13	Justin Herbert	27	29.0	-7%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

LAR offense

LAR offense: Share of LAR pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%7.3 yds	3%9.9 yds	15%11.6 yds
Short	23%6.7 yds	18%7.9 yds	33%5.6 yds

Share of LAR pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

ARI defense

ARI defense: Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%14.5 yds#5	3%14.6 yds#17	10%12.2 yds#11
Short	30%6.1 yds#12	18%8.6 yds#5	31%7.3 yds#2

Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%7.3 yds	3%9.9 yds	15%11.6 yds
Short	23%6.7 yds	17%8.0 yds	33%5.6 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of LA targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Puka Nacua WR	3	15.0	45	33.9%
2	Davante Adams WR	5	9.0	45	22.6%
3	Kyren Williams RB	5	6.6	33	14.6%
4	Tyler Higbee TE	4	6.2	25	13.2%
5	Terrance Ferguson TE	3	4.0	12	12.6%
6	Konata Mumpfield WR	4	3.5	14	8.2%
7	Colby Parkinson TE	4	1.8	7	5.0%
8	Blake Corum RB	5	2.2	11	4.6%
9	Davis Allen TE	5	1.8	9	4.2%
10	Ronnie Rivers RB	1	1.0	1	3.7%

Game log · 43 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Pass Att	vs 34.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-12	5	vs BUF	54	Over	37.5	82 (100%)
2026-10-04	4	@ PHI	51	Over	34.5	84 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	@ DEN	55	Over	33.5	86 (100%)
2026-09-21	2	vs NYG	31	Under	32.5	62 (100%)
2026-09-10	1	vs SF	25	Under	34.5	51 (84%)
2026-01-25	21 (P)	@ SEA	35	Over	35.5	61 (100%)
2026-01-18	20 (P)	@ CHI	42	Over	34.5	78 (100%)
2026-01-10	19 (P)	@ CAR	42	Over	33.5	76 (100%)
2026-01-04	18	vs ARI	40	Over	30.5	72 (96%)
2025-12-29	17	@ ATL	38	Over	37.5	65 (100%)
2025-12-18	16	@ SEA	49	Over	33.5	92 (100%)
2025-12-14	15	vs DET	38	Over	40.5	72 (100%)
2025-12-07	14	@ ARI	31	Under	34.5	58 (83%)
2025-11-30	13	@ CAR	28	Under	32.5	52 (100%)
2025-11-23	12	vs TB	35	Over	37.5	56 (100%)
2025-11-16	11	vs SEA	28	Under	31.5	51 (100%)
2025-11-09	10	@ SF	36	Over	36.5	69 (100%)
2025-11-02	9	vs NO	32	Under	35.5	80 (100%)
2025-10-19	7	@ JAX	33	Under	36.5	67 (96%)
2025-10-12	6	@ BAL	26	Under	33.5	53 (100%)
2025-10-02	5	vs SF	47	Over	39.5	68 (100%)
2025-09-28	4	vs IND	41	Over	34.5	75 (100%)
2025-09-21	3	@ PHI	33	Under	30.5	66 (100%)
2025-09-14	2	@ TEN	33	Under	31.5	61 (100%)
2025-09-07	1	vs HOU	29	Under	28.5	60 (100%)
2025-01-19	20 (P)	@ PHI	44	Over	—	71 (100%)
2025-01-13	19 (P)	vs MIN	27	Under	—	53 (100%)
2024-12-28	17	vs ARI	32	Under	—	57 (100%)
2024-12-22	16	@ NYJ	19	Under	—	52 (100%)
2024-12-12	15	@ SF	27	Under	—	65 (100%)
2024-12-08	14	vs BUF	30	Under	—	77 (100%)
2024-12-01	13	@ NO	24	Under	—	56 (100%)
2024-11-24	12	vs PHI	36	Over	—	64 (100%)
2024-11-17	11	@ NE	27	Under	—	52 (100%)
2024-11-11	10	vs MIA	46	Over	—	70 (100%)
2024-11-03	9	@ SEA	44	Over	—	77 (100%)
2024-10-24	8	vs MIN	34	Under	—	72 (100%)
2024-10-20	7	vs LV	23	Under	—	55 (100%)
2024-10-06	5	vs GB	45	Over	—	78 (100%)
2024-09-29	4	@ CHI	29	Under	—	61 (100%)
2024-09-22	3	vs SF	25	Under	—	58 (100%)
2024-09-15	2	@ ARI	27	Under	—	52 (100%)
2024-09-08	1	@ DET	49	Over	—	78 (100%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 34.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 3m ago.