NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Aaron Rodgers QB

PIT vs TB · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

33.5 Pass Att O -114U -114

Hit rate · This season 80%4/5 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 36.8
Graph avg: 36.8
Graph median: 39.031–40
Over the close: 60%3/5

2026 per game

Pass Yds246.8▲+42.8

Att36.8▲+5.6

Cmp%59.8%▼-5.0

Pass TD2.0▲+0.6

INT0.8▲+0.3

Rush Yds3.6+0.0

Snaps65.2▲+8.2

Snap %98.6%▲+3.3

33.5

2026

40

Sep 13
39

Sep 20
34

Sep 27
40

Oct 01
31

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 33.5

Home 52% 11/21 · avg 33.0
Away 56% 10/18 · avg 33.6
vs TB No games

Alt lines this season · how often Over cleared

O 31.5 80% 4/5
O 32.5 80% 4/5
O 33.5 Today 80% 4/5
O 34.5 60% 3/5
O 35.5 60% 3/5

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs TB

What TB allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds231.9#13
Yds/Att7.3#12
Cmp%66.5%#6
Pass TD1.6#13
Pass Att31.9#16

QBs vs TB · 2026

Each main QB who faced TB this season: pass att in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-0.5

Avg diff %+1%

Beat their average60% (3/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 08	Dak Prescott	42	37.5	+12%
Oct 04	Jordan Love	30	38.8	-23%
Sep 27	Kyler Murray	29	24.0	+21%
Sep 20	Deshaun Watson	30	29.5	+2%
Sep 13	Joe Burrow	35	38.5	-9%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

PIT offense

PIT offense: Share of PIT pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%7.0 yds	4%15.5 yds	9%5.6 yds
Short	30%5.1 yds	18%8.3 yds	32%5.2 yds

Share of PIT pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

TB defense

TB defense: Throws TB faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%9.7 yds#20	5%12.7 yds#22	6%9.3 yds#24
Short	34%7.0 yds#4	16%7.7 yds#13	32%5.8 yds#12

Throws TB faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%7.0 yds	4%15.5 yds	9%5.6 yds
Short	29%5.2 yds	18%8.3 yds	32%5.3 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of PIT targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	DK Metcalf WR	5	7.4	37	20.8%
2	Pat Freiermuth TE	5	5.2	26	15.2%
3	Jaylen Warren RB	5	5.2	26	15.1%
4	Germie Bernard WR	4	5.0	20	15.0%
5	Roman Wilson WR	5	5.0	25	14.1%
6	Michael Pittman WR	3	4.0	12	11.5%
7	Rico Dowdle RB	2	3.5	7	9.5%
8	Darnell Washington TE	5	3.2	16	9.3%
9	Ben Skowronek WR	3	1.3	4	3.7%
10	Robert Tonyan TE	1	1.0	1	3.2%

Game log · 5 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Pass Att	vs 33.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	vs IND	31	Under	34.5	58 (97%)
2026-10-01	4	@ CLE	40	Over	34.5	72 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	vs CIN	34	Over	35.5	62 (100%)
2026-09-20	2	@ NE	39	Over	34.5	67 (96%)
2026-09-13	1	vs ATL	40	Over	31.5	67 (100%)

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: FanDuel, updated 5m ago.