NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Aaron Rodgers QB

PIT vs TB · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

33.5 Pass Att O -114U -114

Hit rate · Last 10 70%7/10 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 36.8
Graph avg: 37.1
Graph median: 39.027–47
Over the close: 50%5/10

2026 per game

Pass Yds246.8▲+42.8

Att36.8▲+5.6

Cmp%59.8%▼-5.0

Pass TD2.0▲+0.6

INT0.8▲+0.3

Rush Yds3.6+0.0

Snaps65.2▲+8.2

Snap %98.6%▲+3.3

33.5

2025

27

Dec 15
41

Dec 21
39

Dec 28
47

Jan 04
33

Jan 12
2026

40

Sep 13
39

Sep 20
34

Sep 27
40

Oct 01
31

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 33.5

Home 52% 11/21 · avg 33.0
Away 56% 10/18 · avg 33.6
vs TB No games

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 31.5 80% 8/10
O 32.5 80% 8/10
O 33.5 Today 70% 7/10
O 34.5 60% 6/10
O 35.5 60% 6/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs TB

What TB allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds231.9#13
Yds/Att7.3#12
Cmp%66.5%#6
Pass TD1.6#13
Pass Att31.9#16

QBs vs TB · 2026

Each main QB who faced TB this season: pass att in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-0.5

Avg diff %+1%

Beat their average60% (3/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 08	Dak Prescott	42	37.5	+12%
Oct 04	Jordan Love	30	38.8	-23%
Sep 27	Kyler Murray	29	24.0	+21%
Sep 20	Deshaun Watson	30	29.5	+2%
Sep 13	Joe Burrow	35	38.5	-9%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

PIT offense

PIT offense: Share of PIT pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%7.0 yds	4%15.5 yds	9%5.6 yds
Short	30%5.1 yds	18%8.3 yds	32%5.2 yds

Share of PIT pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

TB defense

TB defense: Throws TB faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%9.7 yds#20	5%12.7 yds#22	6%9.3 yds#24
Short	34%7.0 yds#4	16%7.7 yds#13	32%5.8 yds#12

Throws TB faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%7.0 yds	4%15.5 yds	9%5.6 yds
Short	29%5.2 yds	18%8.3 yds	32%5.3 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of PIT targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	DK Metcalf WR	5	7.4	37	20.8%
2	Pat Freiermuth TE	5	5.2	26	15.2%
3	Jaylen Warren RB	5	5.2	26	15.1%
4	Germie Bernard WR	4	5.0	20	15.0%
5	Roman Wilson WR	5	5.0	25	14.1%
6	Michael Pittman WR	3	4.0	12	11.5%
7	Rico Dowdle RB	2	3.5	7	9.5%
8	Darnell Washington TE	5	3.2	16	9.3%
9	Ben Skowronek WR	3	1.3	4	3.7%
10	Robert Tonyan TE	1	1.0	1	3.2%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Pass Att	vs 33.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	vs IND	31	Under	34.5	58 (97%)
2026-10-01	4	@ CLE	40	Over	34.5	72 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	vs CIN	34	Over	35.5	62 (100%)
2026-09-20	2	@ NE	39	Over	34.5	67 (96%)
2026-09-13	1	vs ATL	40	Over	31.5	67 (100%)
2026-01-12	19 (P)	vs HOU	33	Under	33.5	51 (89%)
2026-01-04	18	vs BAL	47	Over	44.5	75 (100%)
2025-12-28	17	@ CLE	39	Over	32.5	66 (100%)
2025-12-21	16	@ DET	41	Over	42.5	74 (100%)
2025-12-15	15	vs MIA	27	Under	31.5	66 (100%)

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: FanDuel, updated 13m ago.